DAVID CRAYFORD ............ HAS THE NEXT MAJOR FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRASH STARTED ................
WHICH, ACCORDING TO VLADIMIR PUTIN (PRESIDENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION) IN ONE OF HIS MOST RECENT STATEMENTS HE STATES, QUOTE "THE NEXT FINANCIAL CRASH WILL BE BIGGER AND MORE SEVERE THAN ANYTHING THE WORLD HAS EXPERFIENCED BEFORE."
It certainly could be, but no one will actually know until another 1 or 2 months have passed.
The "Bull" market has come to abrupt end and a "Bear" market is certainly evident and quite strongly right across the world. The Covid -19 virus is also certainly having major effects to industry and the financial fraternity right across the world. Supply Streams / Chains have almost dried up as manufacturers are, in most cases, forced to shut their doors through Government emergency rules to counter the Covin - 19 virus, or as the case may be because many of their employees are down with Covin - 19 or have since died.
Banks are once again going to receive from Government and the Central Bank's proposals, more "Bail-outs", in the "Hundreds of Billions" but is that the right answer to the problems. Personally I don't think so because the emphasis is, once again, focused on Banks, or as some persons state, "The Robbing Banksters". At least the Government and Local Governments have also stated that they will assist industry as well, but one has to ask the question if that will happen, how will it be implemented, and who will benefit from it.
I personally have a different answer, although a little more radicle, which is to suspend ALL debt payments until this Covin - 19 virus has completely died down with both businesses and people eventually getting getting back to normal.
Instead of the Government and Central Bank throwing money at the Banks, as they did in 2007/8, my method would allow a registry to be kept by ALL banks as to what debt payments have been suspended whereby the Government and Central Bank would only provide the banks with suspended debt as registered.
If such debt, which would include Mortgage payments, Car Loans, Overdrafts, Student Loans, Loans to industry, etc, to ease the burden upon the public, was suspended for say 3 months with a 6 month payback period, all with built in flexibility, it would help all people from the "bottom up", rather than "Top down" and would also regulate the amount of money that needed to be injected into the economy rather than just throwing money at the problem, through the Banks, which never works. A far more controllable situation than what happened after the 2007/8 financial crash and certainly one which is far more controllable and acceptable.
The Banks, as we all know, would look after themselves and their Balance Sheets, no one else, and the consumer would once again suffer, possibly with more and more austerity measures.
Some people may consider my idea to be "Socialist" oriented, but that is not the case at all, as I am politically neutral. I am just being practical and focusing on reality as any Financial and Economic collapse affects everyone, and I mean everyone from those who are forced to sleep on the streets to those living in mansions, not just a few elite banks or industry.
Let's just take one example. Those who live on the streets are basically reliant upon people passing by for a few coins in a tin or hat, to be able to eat something. With shops, schools, recreation sports, etc being cancelled or suspended there are few, or no people, walking down the high streets to put a few coins into a time or a hat, so how are these people to eat, other than going to some charity or the Salvation Army centres, if they are actually open, which ultimately then places a stress factor upon those centres.
Let's take a look at another scenario, being persons temporarily laid off from their jobs because the supply chains have dried up, and although there is work to do, it cannot be done because there are no supplies of parts or materials coming in. To have ALL debt payments suspended would mean that they would only need money for food, electricity, water, nothing else. That would be at least half of a major headache resolved for a short period of time.
The idea would also ease the burden on Government because by suspending payments of all Debt, for say 3 months, it would cost the Government far less (Temporarily) in welfare payments to those less fortunate and those persons laid off temporarily from their employment. However, I do feel that I am asking too much of the Government to be more realistic and responsible to ALL people.
But NO, the Governments and Central Banks have decided to focus their financial assistance on the Banks and towards industry.
Now let's look at what it is costing. The Government are, or about to pump "Hundreds of Billions" into the economy. Someone please tell me where those "Hundreds of Billions" is coming from.
1. Are the banks being allowed to trade what they have on the Trading Platforms, albeit "long term" or on "Bullet Trades".
2. Are they borrowing money from the markets.
3. Are the Central Banks, once again, just printing money and have the presses running day and night.
Whatever, it all has to be "Paid Back" or "Clawed Back" in due course, so the question arises as to what loss to the public coffers? Most Governments who bailed out their banks during the 2007/8 crisis have ended up losing money, and public money at that, but they rarely reveal that factor, which in term would make them look incompetent in financial matters. Hmmmmmm, actual situation rather than reality. Many Banks still owe money back to the Government for their "Bailouts", especially those who either used that money to buy Bonds (Many which were of Junk Bond status), or to support their Balance sheets because they already had an overload of Junk Bonds (and still have) previous to the 2007/8 financial crash. Deutsche Bank is just one of those banks that are in a terrible mess and should have been liquidated, along with Lehman Brothers, in the early days of the 2007/8 financial crisis, but the train keeps rolling down the tracks. The tracks will run out soon and then the "BIG CRASH" will come, and when it does come ............. God help us all because the question has to be asked as to whether this planet and its people will survive it.
We must all watch the markets carefully within the next 1 - 2 months, and listen carefully to the people who are the real experts and have no axe to grind, not these so-called banking experts, analysts, mathematicians, etc, who have got this world into one hell of a mess whereby whatever they appear to do just makes matters worse.
I will finish there because the current situation is critical, and I am not a forecaster, nor am I a soothsayer. I am a realist and have yet to see specific signs to tell me whether we are in another financial crisis or whether this is just another "Blip" on computer screens. I personally think the former of these contain more of the answer than the latter factor.
© and Copy Holder plus "IPR", February2020, to David P. Crayford in conjunction with Abundanthope.net.