DAVID CRAYFORD ------- WHAT AN ABSOLUTE MESS THE WORLD, FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND EAST TO WEST; IS IN --------------
------------- AND IT IS NOT GOING TO GET ANY BETTER SOON. THAT BEING THE CASE, WHO IS GOING TO SUFFER MOST?
The general populous, of course.
The IMF have just published their figures for World Debt. Not that we believe much of what the IMF ever puts out in the media, and consider most of their analysis as being conservative, with distortions, to the extreme and very close to blaming the populous for everything.
The IMF claims the World Debt problem is, as at the 31st December 2019, a total of US$ 66 trillion USD, and will increase to in excess of US$ 75 trillion USD by the 31st December 2020. The problem with these figures is that they do not define how the Debt figure is actually made up.
So we ask the question:-
1. Is it a total of Government Debt throughout the World.
2. Is it a total of Government Debt, plus Commercial / Banking Debt.
3. Is it a total of Government Debt, plus Commercial / Banking Debt, plus private / consumer Debt.
We have therefore undertaken our analysis of the IMF Figures.
It is more likely to be that the Debt is attributed to No:1 above, and not to No: 2 or No: 3 above. Let’s explain that a little for those persons who unfortunately will eventually be called upon to pay that Debt.
It cannot be option No: 2 above because many Banks are carrying substantial Debt that is not revealed publicly. Let’s just take Deutsche Bank as one example. Deutsche Bank is actually holding on their balance sheet US$ 50 trillion of worthless Mortgage Bonds and Commercial Bonds, initially rated at triple AAA by the likes of Standard and Poors, Moody’s, Fitch; which have no more than a value of 0.5 Cents on the Dollar.
So what are Deutsche Bank doing to stay afloat and liquid. It comes as no surprise to us at all that Deutsche Bank are using “Trading”, either through long term Trading Platforms via the Federal Reserve, or, what is known as “Bullet Trades” with up to a 28 day trading period, based on 7 day periods. The problem is that Deutsche Bank are acting very dubiously by using Client’s money on account, without the Clients knowing, to undertake these trades. At the same time all they are doing is generating more and more money that flows down from thin air, so that even more actual Debt is being generated.
They are not the only bank to be doing this. HSBC, Barclays, Credit Suisse and most of the top 500 Banks of the World are all involved, and they, of course, are Banks within the Western World.
It cannot be option No:3 above, because that option accounts for several trillion, which when added to the amounts under option No: 2, surpasses the total as stated in option No: 1 by the IMF.
We therefore must state that option No: 1 is Government Debt only, and DOES NOT include other Debt factors. Oh Dear, the IMF, and others, with their highly potent but vague statements put the fear factor into the majority of people, but is that their real intent, or is it just to show the world that they are doing something which actually has real substance to it.
By the way, the Global Debt Factor stated by the IMF does not include the current Trillions of US Dollars attributed to Government borrowing related to the Covid 19 pandemic, which is into Trillions of Dollars of value already, and growing day by day.
All in all, the consumer or general populous is on the hook for trillions of US Dollars which has to be repaid at some time in the future, and could take as much as 20 - 30 years to pay off. Tax increases and Reductions of the internal expenditure of countries are on the way and there will be nothing the populous can do about it.
Let’s us now look at the Covid 19 situation. This has devastated economies all across the world with the “Lock Downs”. Shops have been closed and people lost their jobs or have been furloughed. Consumers do not have the means any longer to service their mortgages, Credit Card Debts, Car Loan Debts, etc, etc, etc. Mortgage foreclosures and Car repossessions appear to be imminent and can only add to the problems being experienced by the middle to lower socio-economic groups around the world.
Governments Treasury funds have run out whereby the Governments urgently and desperately need Tax revenue of all descriptions to help pay for this disastrous Debt factor. This is why Governments are beginning to open up their economies, possibly far too early, to start / restart the regeneration of Tax income, and maybe a second wave of virus infections and resultant deaths.
Those comments / suggestions by any politician is, in our opinion, irresponsibility at its best. Especially when Boris Johnson the Prime Minister of the UK is strongly advocating to consumers, a “Spend, Spend, Spend, policy. In addition the US consumer spending jumped 17% within 1 month of the easing of the “Lock Downs” across America, but that actually aligns itself to the US Consumers attitudes who really cannot save money at all.
All of this is irresponsible as a large section of the populous have little or no money (Savings) and will, no doubt, use their credit cards, further bank loans, or overdrafts, and even the equity in their homes, resulting in more and more private debt. All living day by day, week by week, month by month.
Let’s be a little more brutal about the whole subject of Debt. In 2007 / 8 the world experienced a financial crisis, which some economists state was worse than the American Great Depression of the 1930’s. Figures published last week suggest it amounted to approximately 1% of the world’s GDP created over a few years. The current borrowings of Governments around the world for a few months within the virus pandemic period is currently 3%, and that has been generated in a matter of just a few months, not years.
Are the general populous aware of this and how it will affect everyone, including their families and the long term future??? ……….. We do not think so and therefore we await the shock waves.
The world has never really overcome that problem of the 2007 / 8 financial crisis, especially the “Root Cause” of that problem, because since 2007 / 8 the whole system has been manipulated to such an extent,what we see is no longer the true facts but manipulation and misleading statements covering up the real situation to the detriment of the world’s populous.
Quantative Easy was introduced, as with Government Treasury Buying Bonds of all descriptions (Banking and Commercial Bonds of little value), Funds injected into the “Repo Markets”.etc, etc, etc. It is all debt that has to be repaid at some time, but of course this (Debt) is never, or rarely mentioned publicly.
The general debt factor of America (that is the normal Government Expenditure Debt) increased by US$ 1 trillion USD in just one (1) month. An absolutely shocking figure and one that will hit home hard in the short / medium term, whereby the consumers / general populous will bear the brunt of it. The Debt factors, right across the world are so high they are at a point of “Impossible to Pay Back”, but Governments do not appear to care as they just keep on accumulating Debt, chargeable to the general populous. The UK’s debt is now greater than the value of the total UK economy. I just wonder how many countries across the world have the same situation, but afraid of the repercussions if they ever inform their own citizens
When people realise that the World has not yet overcome the 2007 /8 financial crisis, and probably never will because of all the manipulation and the lack of real information being released publicly. It is deception at its finest and all generated by Governments and the Bankers. On top of that is the current debt problem being fiercely generated by Governments, all adding to and already explosive DEBT PROBLEM.
Another part of the problem which has driven borrowing to an all time high is the fact that over several decades Governments deliberately cut funding to things like health care, education, training, welfare payments, pensions, with some of those cuts being attributed to the 2007 / 8 Financial Crisis, but a substantial amount of the cuts were undertaken to allow Governments to pay for their “Pet Projects / Expenditure” abroad, thus creating the” leakage” for corruption money to specific personalities. They rarely keep expenditure within their own countries to satisfy the populous as there is too much oversight to allow funds to drain away in pockets, so use the alternative to divert adequate funds to enhance them and their friends, believing that no one will notice.
One way that Governments have reduced their expenditure but maintained their revenues is to undertake “Privatisation”, shifting the responsibility of specific parts of the Government sectors and responsibility to private companies, equity funds, and investment organisations. Now Governments have the same, or similar incomes / revenues, with less expenditure and less responsibility, so their structured movements protect their pet foreign investments / foreign aid / and even involvements into revolutions / localised wars which have little, if any, oversight, but have one hell of an negative impact on the people at the receiving end of all of this.
Quite a few Governments are advocating that the national and international economies will now start to grow again whereby at the end of 2020, the populous will see a far more normal economic situation. Politicians do live in hope with one foot on that particular side of the fence, and the other foot in perpetual fantasy land.
We have undertaken our own analysis and the effects upon the world’s economies.
What we have found is that for the rest of 2020, economic growth will be near “Zero” as the whole world picks itself up very slowly and starts to rebuild.
In 2021, the economies will start to grow slowly and cautiously at first, just to make sure that there are no more sudden shocks to face. This slow growth will continue throughout 2021 gaining more momentum in the latter part of 2021.
In 2022 the world’s economies will be seen to be far more active with the momentum, right across the world growing in a moderate manner. It will be the second half of 2022 that will see growth expanding and on a real path of return to far more normal levels.
This will be reflected in 2023 and more so in 2024 whereby the world should be able to put the past behind us, with a more prosperous future ahead.
That however is subject to no more unexpected sudden shocks hitting countries across the world to derail efforts to turn the economies of the world, around.
One vital and important issue in all of this is that there was no actual solid economic or financial stability or real foundations prior to this latest Covid 19 shockwave, and therefore what foundations there were of National Economies were shaken and shaken to the core as if the economies had been hit by a 8.5 - 9.5 magnitude earthquake.
This is the very reason why we (All of us at the ITC) have worked relentlessly over the last 2½ years to design and develop the “Gold Backed GLOBEC currency “Pegging System” and the “Gold / Asset backed National currencies” systems, so that every country in the world has solid foundations and systems that can absorb the shockwaves that may be thrown their way, and so they can build their countries and National economies with total confidence, and to the benefit of their citizens.
It hasn’t been easy for any of us at the ITC, since the demise of Dr. Dam, the former International Treasury Controller, as there is, and was an enormous amount to do in the restructuring of the ITC in line with the 1920 London Treaty. We haven’t finished yet as there is still much to do and a long way on that road to achievement to yet travel, but what we do, and have done, is for everyone’s benefit and the future of this world of ours.
We also hope that such mechanisms will lead to a far more balanced, stable, and peaceful world that we can ALL enjoy and treasure, knowing that our children and grandchildren can grow up in such a world, far away and totally distanced from a world that we, the current generations, and their predecessors, have made an absolute mess of.
Let’s all live within our means in a balanced, stable, peaceful and enjoy it, and stop this quest for enormous amounts of money, and power over everyone of the weaker parts of society. We are after all, all humans, not slaves. We are equal no matter our race, colour and creed, and we all need peace and stability in our lives, otherwise we might as well all start to opt out of current situations and live in lives of isolation,
What I have stated above does not mean that we have to live in a totally Socialist / Communist, or Capitalist International community. Far from it. Irrespective of whatever your particular political ideology, or what your normal brain wave patterns guide you to be, Socialism and Capitalism can work side by side and in unison with each other to everyone’s benefit. We should all give it a chance and stop being so greedy, arrogant, selfish, jealous, or holding blinkered vision. We all need each other.
© and Copy Holder plus “IPR”, February2020, to David P. Crayford in conjunction with Abundanthope.net.
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