National Data | Americans Gain Jobs in October; Immigrants Leaving in Record Numbers! Is Trump Quietly (!) Doing Something Right (!!)?
By Edwin S Rubenstein
Nov 8, 2019 - 9:27:12 PM
The big news in the October jobs data: The immigrant workforce population in the U.S. continues to fall-continuing the trend last seen in early 2017, when the late lamented "Trump Effect" was literally scaring immigrants away. But, also, immigrant displacement of American workers has begun declining again. Is Trump quietly (!) doing something right?
For the second straight month the foreign-born adult workforce population declined in October, year-over-year, by 725,000 or 1.68%, on the heels of a 427,000, or 0.99%, decline in September.
FOREIGN-BORN CIVILIAN POPULATION
YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE
Change in foreign-born population from the same month the prior year.
(Noninstitutional; Age 16 or older; in 1,000s, not seasonally adjusted)
Not since the 2008 Great Recession have immigrant workers bailed in such numbers, year-over-year. Back then the outflux was driven by economic malaise. But now the economy is (relatively) strong. What is driving this exodus?
We continue to be cautious. This decline could be statistical noise. But there's been a very clear, if erratic, downward trend in year-over-year immigrant worker growth since as far back as March 2018.
However, the number of migrants taken into custody by U.S. immigration authorities in fiscal 2019 (the 12 months ending in September) totaled nearly 1 million, marking an 88% percent increase over the previous year, according to Acting Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Mark Morgan.
Morgan, right, criticized Congress for failing to enact legislation to reform the U.S. immigration system:
We still need Congress to pass meaningful legislation to address our broken legal framework when it comes to immigration. And while Congress has failed to bring a single piece of legislation to the floor, this president, this administration is doing exactly what he promised the American people.
The BLS reported 128,000 new payroll jobs were created in October-a tad below the 130,000 growth for September. This stability came despite a GM strike that idled 50,000 workers, the layoff of 20,000 temporary Census workers, and layoffs at Boeing. Economic growth may be slowing, but the Great American Job Machine is chugging along just fine. The longest economic recovery in U.S. history shows no sign of yielding to recession anytime soon.
Meanwhile, the "other" employment survey, of Households rather than businesses, is even more encouraging. It reported a net 241,000 new jobs created last month, with native-born Americans the gainers, while immigrants were the losers:
In October 2019:
Immigrants lost 106,000 jobs, a loss of 0.39%
Native-born Americans gained 347,000 jobs, a gain of 0.26%
The VDARE.com immigrant employment index, set at 100.0 in January 2009, fell to 125.9 from 126.4 in September
The Native-born American employment index rose to 108.9 from 108.6 in September
Overall, from January 2017 through October 2019, Trump has presided over a labor market in which immigrants gained 1.264 million jobs, a 4.86% increase, while native-born Americans gained 5.165 million, a rise of 4.10%. Note that the immigrant/native-born percentage gap in job creation under Trump -0.76% percentage points in favor of immigrants-is strikingly low. As recently as April of this year it was 7.1%; immigrants gained 2.3 million jobs, an 8.9% rise, while native-born Americans gained 2.264 million, a rise of 1.8%.
Thus, more than three-quarters through his third year in office, Donald Trump is getting close to delivering equal percentage job gains for native-born and immigrant.
Our tag line, "As far as job growth is concerned, ‘America First' has not translated into Americans First," is still valid, but only barely. Another month like October and we can celebrate.
Except, of course, that without statutory immigration reduction, it can all be reversed by President Warren.
Another way of looking at American worker displacement: The immigrant share of total U.S. employment. It's been falling.
Immigrants held 17.19% of jobs in October, down slightly from 17.28% in September, and down more substantially from 17.54% of October 2018. These percentages are based on employment figures that are not seasonally adjusted, so year-over-year comparisons may be more representative of the long-term trend. The record immigrant job share (18.08%) was recorded in April 2018.
We are told there are simply not enough job seekers to fill unfilled job positions. But hourly wage growth has been anemic for much of the recovery, and has stalled again recently. And the wage gap between top and bottom wage earners grows larger. [Jobs Are Plentiful. Big Pay Raises Aren't, , by Neil Irwin, NYT, November 1, 2019] Average earnings growth picked up slightly in October, and was also revised upward for September, but growth has slowed over the past year.
Still, data in the October report show that on three important metrics-working-age population, employment, and labor force participation rate-native-born American workers outpaced immigrants by a considerable multiple over the past 12 months:
Employment Status by Nativity, Oct. 2018-Oct. 2019
(numbers in 1000s; not seasonally adjusted)
Oct-18
Oct-19
Change
% Change
Foreign born, 16 years and older
Civilian population
43,051
42,326
-725
-1.68%
Civilian labor force
28,410
28,067
-343
-1.21%
Participation rate (%)
66.0
66.3
0.3%pts.
0.45%
Employed
27,533
27,346
-187
-0.68%
Employment/population (%)
64.0
64.6
0.6%pts.
0.94%
Unemployed
877
722
-155
-17.67%
Unemployment rate (%)
3.1
2.6
-0.5%pts.
-16.13%
Not in labor force
14,641
14,258
-383
-2.62%
Native born, 16 years and older
Civilian population
215,463
217,519
2,056
0.95%
Civilian labor force
134,313
136,509
2,196
1.63%
Participation rate (%)
62.3
62.8
0.5%pts.
0.80%
Employed
129,419
131,721
2,302
1.78%
Employment/population (%)
60.1
60.6
0.5%pts.
0.83%
Unemployed
4,894
4,788
-106
-2.17%
Unemployment rate (%)
3.6
3.5
-0.1%pts.
-2.78%
Not in labor force
81,150
81,010
-140
-0.17%
Source: BLS, The Employment Situation October 2019, Table A-7, November 1, 2019. PDF
Over the past 12 months (October 2018 through October 2019):
The native-born America working-age population grew by 2.056 million, a gain of 0.95%; the corresponding immigrant population fell by 725,000-a 1.7% loss. As recently as June, immigrants were pouring in at this rate; now they're leaving. (Even the Great Recession didn't see immigrants bailing in these numbers.) The "Trump Effect" is back, and stronger than ever!
American employment rose a whopping 2.302 million, up by 1.8%; Foreign-born employment fell 187,000, down by 0.7%. Another remarkable comeback month for native-born American workers, especially after a dismal June during which immigrants gained jobs nearly three times as fast, year-over-year.
The immigrant labor force (working or looking for work) fell by 343,000, a 1.2% decline; the native-born American labor force roared ahead by 2.2 million, a 1.63% gain. AdvantageNative-Born Americans.
The unemployment rate for immigrants fell to 2.6%, a decline of 16.1% from last October, while the native-born American unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, a decline of only 2.8%. Advantage immigrants -though this positive reflects the fall in the immigrant labor force. By contrast, the unemployment rate for native-born Americans fell, despite a large rise in the native-born American labor force.
The labor-force participation rate for native-born Americans rose by 0.5 % points, versus a 0.3 % point rise for immigrants. Another month of increased confidence (vs. The same month last year) on the part of American workers, now that Trump's tariffs and crackdowns on unauthorized foreign workers are increasing job opportunities.
The data show 4.8 million native-born and 722,000 immigrants were unemployed in October, but over the last year the number of unemployed immigrants collapsed by 17.7%, versus a comparatively modest 2.2% decline in idle native-born. Two related factors may be at play here:
unemployed immigrants are going home rather than face deportation, and
U.S. companies are screening out illegals to avoid sanctions from an increasingly vigilant DHS.
Both welcome changes.
But still many employers, and their lobbyists, insist that immigrants are needed to fill the gap.
Bottom line: This is a formidably strong economy and it has been swamping the effects of immigration. The last few months have been especially good for native-born Americans.