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Political Information Last Updated: Nov 12, 2019 - 4:32:11 AM


Top 25 Cool Demographics Facts
By Anatoly Karlin with comments by Ron
Nov 12, 2019 - 1:54:08 AM

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Top 25 Cool Demographics Facts
• November 5, 2019 • 1,900 Words

I am not going to cover things that well-informed normies already know: How Israel is a weird outlier in fertility by First World standards, and the collapse of fertility in the Islamic world; how life expectancy has been soaring nearly everywhere; the “Great White Death” in the US and how all races in the US outperform their counterparts elsewhere, except for American Whites, who live less than almost all Europeans. Nor am I going to cover truly banal stuff, such as how tiny Bangladesh has more people than Russia. Nor particularly controversial stuff such as Eurabia, Great Replacement, etc. which I have covered elsewhere.

For all of this you have websites like Our World in Data and books by Steven Pinker.

I am instead going to focus on the truly little known and esoteric that I happen to find most interesting, especially from a historical or futurist perspective.

***


Demographic Geopolitics

(1) The world population of Greeks has been steady at ~10 million since the age of Alexander the Great. Their percentage of the world total plummeted from ~5% to slightly more than 0.1% today.

Source: Hansen, Mogens Herman. 2008. “An Update on the Shotgun Method.Greek, Roman and Byzantine Studies 48 (3): 259–86.


 

(2) In 1900, Europe’s population (~400M) was quintuple that of Sub-Saharan Africa’s (~80M).

By 2100, Sub-Saharan Africa’s population (~4B) will be eight times as great as Europe’s (~650M).

Quite the reversal!

Source: Maddison; UN World Population Prospects.


 

(3a) Comparing the populations of modern nation-states to their medieval (pre-Black Death) counterparts is a fascinating exercise:

  • France grew only 3x from ~20M to today’s ~65M
  • England: 10x from ~6M to ~60M
  • Italy: 7x from ~9M to ~60M
  • Germany: 8x from ~10M to ~82M
  • India: 15x from ~100M to ~1.7B (including Pakistan & Bangladesh)
  • China: 15x from ~100M to ~1.4B
  • Byzantines-Greeks remained at just ~10M (see above)
  • Russian lands 30x from ~6M to ~190M

Source: Maddison

 

(3b) So despite the vast losses of Russia’s demographic potential during the 20th century, it still did rather well in the long-term, increasing its share of Europe’s population from ~5% to ~20% (~25% if inc. UKR/BEL). Swapped places with France in this respect. Glory to the musket and the potato!

 

(3c) At a larger scale, while both Europe and China were at ~100M in Middle Ages, now China has twice as many people, 1.4B to 700M. The advantages of backwardness – delayed fertility transition left more time for population to soar.


 

(4) France was the world’s first modern nation to undergo the fertility transition. It had its genesis with the French nobility during 18C. Subsequently, France would fall from having 1/5 Europe’s population in Middle Ages to <10% by late 19C.

Source: Spolaore, Enrico, and Romain Wacziarg. 2019. “Fertility and Modernity.” Working Paper Series. National Bureau of Economic Research.


 

(5) Huge demographic losses on the level of World War II in Eastern Europe were typical in the Malthusian era.

  • 30 Years War in Germany, Mongol invasion of Russia and Persia, reduced their populations by a third.
  • Wars & anarchy accompanying the end of dynasties usually killed 33%-50% of Chinese.

 

(6) Were the Turks the big demographic winners of the 20th century?

  • 1914: 13.7M Turks vs. 10M Armenians + Greeks (1.3:1) & ~170M in Russian Empire – precarious.
  • 2017: 80.8M Turks vs. 13.7M Greeks+Armenians (6:1) & ~150M in RF – secure as never before.

 

(7) The population ratio between Russia and the Ukraine fell from less than 3:1 to almost 5:1 since 1992. It is ironic that Ukrainian independence has been worse for Ukraine’s population balance vis-a-vis Russia than anything that Lazar Kaganovich and the Nazis did.


Communist Demographics

 

(8a) Russia just within its current borders, assuming otherwise analogous fertility and migration trends, would have had 261.8 million people by 2017 without the triple demographic disasters of Bolshevism, WW2, and the 1990s – that’s double its actual population of 146 million.

Source: Демографические итоги послереволюционного столетия & Демографические катастрофы ХХ века by Anatoly Vishnevsky

(8b) According to my very rough calculations, based on various sources, the population change for each of the following in their current borders between 1913/14 and 1945/46 was about as follows:

  • Russia – 91M/97M
  • Ukraine – 35M/34M
  • Belarus – 7.5M/7.7M

Assuming a threefold expansion in all of these populations, we could have been looking to a Russian Empire or Republic with a further ~120M fully Russified Belorussians and largely Russified Ukrainians, for a total Slavic population of almost 400M.

That’s twice bigger than the number of White Americans today, the most populous single European ethnicity, and almost as much as all of today’s Western Europe.

(8c) Total population of a hypothetical Russian Empire that also retained Central Asia and the Caucasus, and that hadn’t been bled white by commies, Nazis, and Westernizers during the course of the 20th century, would likely have been not that far off from Dmitry Mendeleev’s 1906 projection of 594 million for 2000.

Source: Understanding Russia by Dmitry Mendeleev (yes, the chemist).


 

(9) So far as I can tell, the Latvians, Estonians, and Ashkenazi Jews are the only peoples with fewer people today than in 1914. It is ironic that they played the most disproportionate roles (per capita) in cementing Bolshevism in Russia. God must really hate commies.


 

(10) That said, the Irish have an even more extreme and unique anti-record: There are fewer of them today (~6.6M in all Ireland) than in 1840 (8.5M)! I wonder what they did to anger God so. 🙂


 

(11) Communism isn’t always an unmitigated demographic disaster. As @Cicerone973 has discovered, for the first time ever, births in Best Korea (25M) probably overtook South Korea (52M) last year.

(Even if, as Myers argued, Songun/Juche has almost zilch to do with Marxism).


 

(12) The wonders of Maoism: Between 1960 and 1978, the share of China’s urban population FELL from 20% to 18%.

Source: China’s Economy by Arthur K. Kroeber.


 

(13) We have no solid idea if China’s TFR is ~1.6 children per woman, ~1.1 children per woman, or anywhere in between, e.g. see here, here, and here.

This seems rather important given China’s importance.


Russian Demographics

 

(14a) Russia’s middle-aged male mortality in the 1990s and early 2000s was worse than under late Tsarism. In particular, alcohol abuse accounted contributed to about a third of all deaths. (This has all since drastically improved).

 

(14b) Contra Pinker, Russia has seen a “de-civilizing” process in terms of homicide rates (and many other indicators of social wellbeing) in the last third of the 20th century. This was perfectly correlated with its alcoholization epidemic.

In recent years, the Russian homicide rate has retreated back to its pre-1965 “steady state” of ~5/100,000.

Of course, there is still plenty of lost ground, since c.1900 Russia’s rates were similar to those of Italy, Finland, and Japan, whereas all these countries are now at least 5x less violent.

 

(14c) During the later Soviet era, the Ukraine consistently had a 2 years higher life expectancy than Russia – a difference that dates back well to the 19th century (probably on account of them drinking less, even back then).

But Ukraine has been stagnating since early 2010s; still below its 1960s all time peak, Russia overtook by 2018.

 

 

(15) Central Asians went from 10% of Russian population in 1914 to half today, while births have almost equalized since the early 1990s.

Central Asians increasingly looking to work in South Korea, which is ~20 years ahead of China in terms of demographic and socio-economic development. Once China’s urbanization maxes out at ~75-80% by ~2040, I expect labor migration from C. Asia to reorient there.


Demographic Predictions

 

(16) Might appear easy, but demographers often get things wrong.

c.1930, some forecasts had France’s population falling from 40M to 28M by 1970. Instead, France went from having one of Europe’s lowest TFRs to one of highest, and population went to 50M by that year.

Source: Sauvy, Alfred. 1932. “Calculs Démographiques Sur La Population Française Jusqu’en 1980.” Journal de La Société Statistique de Paris 73: 319–47.


 

(17) And here are some UN Population Prospects forecasts for the year 2025, as cited by Paul Kennedy in his 1993 book Preparing for the 21st Century. As of the 2017 Update, Iran is predicted to have 87M by 2025, as opposed to 122M.


Breeder Demographics

 

(18) However, “Breeder” genes are ultra-competitive in a post-Malthusian environment. Consequently, it is entirely possible that Europe – which underwent the demographic transition 50-100 years ago – may have higher fertility rates than Africa by 2100.

Source: Collins, Jason, and Lionel Page. 2018. “The Heritability of Fertility Makes World Population Stabilization Unlikely in the Foreseeable Future.” Evolution and Human Behavior: Official Journal of the Human Behavior and Evolution Society, September.


 

(19a) Exponential growth can be very powerful. On current trends, Mormons may account for majorities in wide swathes of the rural American West by the early 22nd century.

 

(19b) There were 31,000 Haremin in Israel and 19,000 Amish in the US in 1952. Today, there are 1,126,000 Haredim in Israel and 343,000 Amish in the US.

 

(19c) While absolute Amish TFR has fallen over the past century from ~8 children per woman to ~6 children, the differential with the US population as a whole has increased from 2x to 3x.

 

(19d) Greg Cochran has argued that less committed Amish have been “boiling off” for more than a century, so “Amishness quotient” is increasing with each generation. Which augurs well for their continued demographic expansion.


 

 

(20) Do Russians have a “breeder” group, like Jews (Haredim), Americans (Amish, Mormons – to an extent)? Some tantalizing hints that the rural areas of Northern European Russia are going that way – but far from confirmed that this trend is here to stay.


Demographics Trivia

 

(21) Completed marriages in 1730s Waltham, Massachusetts produced an average of 9.7 children – the largest ever observed in the West by demographic historians (barring a few Christian communes).

Source: Albion’s Seed by David Hackett Fischer.


 

(22a) Normiecons won’t like this, but generous parental leave & child support appear to be far better than banning abortion & social conservatism so far as promoting higher fertility and disincentivizing dysgenic reproduction patterns goes in First World countries.

 

(22b) To illustrate the previous point, in the last few years:

  • Czech TFR: 1.5-1.7
  • Polish TFR: 1.3-1.5

Czechia is Europe’s most atheist country & has highest number of porn stars per capita (but very based on migration). Poland is very holy – but it doesn’t seem to do it much good.


 

(23) Twitter demographer @Cicerone973 has been tracking an apparent “baby bust” that has affected nearly the entirety of the developed world since 2015.

There are no good explanations for it. My best guess is that since it is happening to almost everyone, it would probably have to be some recent cultural phenomenon that shifts fertility preferences downwards (or delays them). Tinder?


 

(24) The Imperium of Man in Warhammer 40K has long been in the Age of Malthusian Industrialism.

Think about it.

Every year, billions of Imperial Guards and dozens of planets are lost in wars, to Exterminatus, to democidal robots, bioconstructs, and eldritch abominations. It is also run by superstitious cretins (*blam*). Nonetheless, it doesn’t have any particular demographic problems, new planets always being settled.


 

(25) Nobody really knows the carrying capacity of our industrial world economy – all we can say for sure is that we are still far below the limits to growth.

My guesstimate is that the planet can support ~100 billion people.

[Ron: Arguably humanity on this planet is on the cusp of a new era in which human labour will cease to be essential to maintain society in material abundance because AI, robots and technology will replace the need for much human physical and mental work.

Once AI and robotics dominate industrial, construction, transport, agricultural, health, legal, accounting and other industries the labour force required for servicing, maintenance and creation of improved robotic and technological designs etc will NOT require more than a fraction of the human manpower currently required to perform the work that will be done by AI and robotics in the future.

Accordingly, what we need to do is start focussing upon what these developments really mean for life as we know it. The first and glaringly obvious question arising from the coming technological dominance of the production and servicing of human needs IS: ‘who will control the output of AI and robotics and who will reap the benefits from that output’? Currently our world is a growing unemployment and underemployment, low wage, high personal income taxation oriented welfare state dystopia because a handfull of incredibly rich individuals control the bulk of transnational corporations AND those individuals pay very little tax while accumulating and KEEPING the bulk of the benefits of that corporate production and associated servicing activities. See eg:
How Billionaires Become Billionaires – Link http://abundanthope.net/pages/Political_Information_43/How-Billionaires-Become-Billionaires.shtml
And:
How Interlinked Corporations Rule The World. – Link http://abundanthope.net/pages/Political_Information_43/How-Interlinked-Corporations-Rule-The-World.shtml
he corporate stranglehold on food and agriculture. – Link http://abundanthope.net/pages/Health_and_Nutrition_37/The-corporate-stranglehold-on-food-and-agriculture.shtml
And:
Rise of the Transnational Corporations – http://abundanthope.net/pages/Political_Information_43/Rise-of-the-Transnational-Corporations.shtml

And:
The Permanent Unemployment & Underemployment Economy – http://abundanthope.net/pages/Political_Information_43/The-Permanent-Unemployment – Underemployment-Economy.shtml

BLIND FREDDY can see that this situation is NOT sustainable. The question is: ‘What, if anything, is the bulk of humanity going to do about it’?

Here’s a hint Pilgrims. IF the global population allows the current rapacious and totally dysfunctional corporatist domination and control of our world (typified by Amazon and Google et al) and fails to develop the mental muscle and guts to refuse to allow Fascists (ie banksters, corporatists and their puppet politicians and so-called Welfare governments) to exploit, impoverish and immiserate the bulk of the global population, human society on this planet will disappear up its own fundamental orifice. The choice is yours. Pretending that ALL that is required is retraining of workers or provision of some form of universal basic income to overcome the problem is ridiculous. See eg:
Universal Basic Income Is Easier Than It Looks – http://abundanthope.net/pages/Political_Information_43/Universal-Basic-Income-Is-Easier-Than-It-Looks.shtml
And:
Endless Government Free Money – http://abundanthope.net/pages/Political_Information_43/Endless-Government-Free-Money.shtml
And:
Can We Do Without Money ? – http://abundanthope.net/pages/Political_Information_43/Can-We-Do-Without-Money.shtml

Our world is currently drowning in debt owed to anonymous banksters who also own or control the corporation that own (and will own future iterations of) the AI and technology we will increasingly depend on. Moreover, those Talmudic owners have indicated that they will only need some 500 million human ‘cattle’ for their amusement etc, the rest being surplus to requirements once they institute their New World Order, One World Government. Sooo, it is unlikely that postulating ANY greater future population for this planet will come to fruition unless the global population CHANGES its attitude to usurious banking, AND corporate personhood; AND limited liability companies; AND ownership and control of the corporations that purport to own the AI and technology needed to sustain everyone. See eg:
Citizens United v. FEC: Corporate Personhood Must be Eliminated if Humanity is to Survive. – http://abundanthope.net/pages/Ron_71/Citizens-United-v-FEC-Corporate-Personhood-Must-GO-if-Humanity-is-to-Survive.shtml
And:
The USA Isn’t a Country, It’s a Corporation! – http://abundanthope.net/pages/True_US_History_108/The-USA-Isn-t-a-Country-It-s-a-Corporation.shtml
And:
The Matrix, the Strawman and WHO You Are – http://abundanthope.net/pages/Ron_71/The_Matrix_the_Strawman_and_WHO_You_Are_3030.shtml

Proper use of AI and robotics etc should enable ALL of humanity to begin transitioning into a new age free of the drudgery of endless physical work that has hitherto been needed to survive. That result will mean that humans will become free to think and develop their innate creativity instead of scrabbling for a living as free range serfs (wage slaves) in the Fascist (Talmudic) capitalist milieu we currently inhabit. However, that prosperous and abundant future for all can only be achieved if we shuck off the mind controlled illusion that a tiny cabal of banksters and corporatists are entitled to OWN and control the corporations and hence the technologies and profits of the machines that create abundance for all. Today it is estimated that some 700 individuals own and/or control the mega trans-national corporations that control global production of goods and services. Those individuals already HAVE most of this worlds’ wealth and if they are allowed to continue to control the production and KEEP the totally inadequately taxed profits of most global mega corporations, human life on this planet is doomed.

The solution is obvious. Nations and communities must take back ownership OR control of the corporations that use AI and robotics etc to produce essential societal needs in the future in order to redistribute the resultant productivity and abundance. IF nations and communities ensure that the profits of ALL corporations are properly taxed so that NO ONE is able to appropriate, hoard and use for private purposes the personally unearned increments accruing from the use of AI, robotics and technologies generally, humanity will enter a golden age. But if not, not.].

 

 

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  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. This Commenter
  2. Curious says:

    Were the Turks the big demographic winners of the 20th century?

    Maybe, but they look set to lose in the 21st. Even putting aside the kurdish question, Turkey has seen a huge surge of arabic and generally islamic immigration. I’m not even talking about refugees. Turkish citizenship is very cheap to aquire and their property laws are hyperliberal for foreigners.

    A large number of Arabs (biggest group being Iraqis and not Syrians last year), Afghans, Pakistanis and other muslims now immigrate to the country. Worse, Turkey is seeing a shift in emigration patterns. It is not the gastarbeiter types who are leaving but increasingly the well-educated. Erdogan’s pan-Islamism is eroding the ethnic character of the country. The biggest threat to his rule is not the moribound secular opposition but the nationalist right. By 2030, kurds will be 1/3rd of Turkey population and even greater share among the newborn. Add the arabs and other muslim populations and things start to look really bad for them.

    Wouldn’t be surprised if they are the first NATO country to see an outright ethno-fascist leader rise to power over the coming decade or two.

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  3. first time i had seen the opening graphic/painting… interesting depiction…
    i mean, almost certainly un-PC, fa, ra, and se, and doubtless, transphobic… (isn’t everything ? ? ?)
    cancel the artist ! ! !

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. This Commenter
  4. The world population of Greeks has been steady at ~10 million since the age of Alexander the Great.

    Interesting contrast with the population of Egypt, which from the time of the Pharaohs to Napoleon (and even a bit beyond) was ~ 4 million, so less than half that of the Greeks. Today it is 100 million, and projected to be 160 million in 2050 and 225 million in 2100.

    • Replies: @argybargy
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  5. Svevlad says:

    How long until an African demographic transition, though? By the way things are going, seems to be they’ll profit the most from the AOMI, being the dumbest

    • Replies: @Gerad. 12
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  6. Pericles says:

    The post-SU collective literally suicidal depression was an interesting demographic phenomenon. Are there any other examples of the same kind?

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  7. Mr. XYZ says:

    (22a) Normiecons won’t like this, but generous parental leave & child support appear to be far better than banning abortion & social conservatism so far as promoting higher fertility and disincentivizing dysgenic reproduction patterns goes in First World countries.

    Anatoly, do you think making illegitimate children entitled to child support (which they weren’t in the US before the late 20th century) was more eugenic or dysgenic in its effects?

    As for Mendeleev’s projections for 2000, they probably included Russian Poland. So, you’re going to have to reduce it by several dozen million or so. I do think that 500 million would be a reasonable estimate for a Russia that keeps Ukraine, Belarus, the Caucasus, and Central Asia and that avoids the demographic devastation of the 20th century, though. Of these, I suspect that around 350 million would identify as Russians while around 50 million would identify as non-Russian Slavs–primarily western and central Ukrainians.

    Of course, an interesting question would be just what kind of immigration policy a non-Bolshevik Russia would have had in the 20th and 21st centuries. Would a lot of Asians and Third Worlders be clamoring to move there just like they are clamoring to move to the West in real life?

    It would also be interesting to see which Russian cities would have been the largest right now in this scenario. Obviously Moscow and St. Pete’s would be at the top, but then what? Kiev? Tashkent? Some other cities? You previously speculated that Odessa would have become much more populous in this scenario, but an increase in size from one million (which is what it is in real life) to 5-7 million (in this scenario) sounds utterly unrealistic, in my honest opinion. Why did Odessa stagnate (relative to some other cities in Greater Russia) during the 20th century in real life?

    As for Israel, I wonder if its fertility would have still been exceptional right now had much more Jews survived the Holocaust and subsequently moved to Israel. Any thoughts on this?

    BTW, in regards to Greater India, an increase from 100 million to 1.7 billion is closer to 20x than to 10x. IMHO, you should have put 15x for both Greater India and China rather than 10x in regards to their population growth over the centuries.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
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  8. songbird says:

    How well have the Mormons done in Mexico? If badly, what is the basis for supposing they will easily expand into the SW US?

    I guess that is the interesting question: how do groups like the Old Order Mennonites do abroad, in nonwhite countries?

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  9. most of the people in Ireland moved to the US, largely to our detriment.

    humorously, they’re now engaged in the business of giving away Ireland. like the Scots, a thousand years of struggle against the English, just so they could turn around and give it all away to third worlders.

    Puerto Rico has sort of taken Ireland’s place as the island that empties out into the mainland, and as a thank you, they shift the politics of the country to the left, as the Irish did. current ideas about making Puerto Rico a state would go about as well legalizing all Mexicans – the guaranteed end of the US politically.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. This Commenter
  10. global first world fertility bust except among the extremely religious probably IS due to the internet and cell phones. porn if you’re a volcel (a new category of human). and too many options if you prefer real women to porn. why get married when there’s so many women to bang no strings attached and you can find them via social media.

    this coincides with the STD explosion. they track well together.

    plus as a man in many nations the courts are against you right off the bat. getting married is dangerous. and of course, dah innernets spread this concept quickly and effectively to younger men, who are now more aware that it’s dangerous to marry the first woman that comes along in your 20s, or to marry any woman at all, ever.

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  11. related website for teh lulz.

    https://www.getoutofillinois.com/

    Illinois is now the US state which is shrinking the fastest. losing about 6 people per 1000 people per year, net. that’s not outmigration, that’s net migration. according to the website, 300 people leave per day.

    New York is second, losing 5 people per 1000 people per year.

    California is avoiding net loss, by replacing Americans who leave, with Mexicans, Chinese, and Indians. still, California has lost over 1 million tax paying middle class Americans over the last 10 years, and it shows. California is in decline.

    • Replies: @Skeptikal
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  12. @songbird

    “How well have the Mormons done in Mexico?”

    what would Mitt Romney, a mormon from Mexico, say about the 10 mormons that got wacked in Mexico today?

    “Whatever we do, don’t build the wall,” or something stupid like that.

    “Bridges not walls!”

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  13. It is impossible to prognosticate.

    What we have now is actually a continuation of past 5000-6000 years of recorded human history (won’t delve into details).

    Apart from unusual scenarios (ET, comets,..) & expected (WW 3)- the truly new is that we could have in near future of 20-40 years a possibility to radically alter human kind.

    Perhaps genetic profound engineering on a large scale.

    Perhaps artificial wombs.

    Perhaps “pumped up” humans (average IQ 300 etc.).

    Perhaps “species dissociation” with new, biological elites.

    Perhaps cyborgization of (some) humans.

    Anyway, any of these options would mean unimaginable consequences we’d not witnessed in past 6000 years.

    Who in 1850 could imagine that in next hundred years it would be possible to completely eradicate human life on earth with human-made weapons?

    So, I’d say it is idle to speculate.

    • Replies: @songbird
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  14. songbird says:
    @Bardon Kaldian

    So, I’d say it is idle to speculate.

    Based on archaeogenetics, I’m not optimistic about pacifists like the Amish.

    • Replies: @Sam Coulton, @JMcG
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  15. @Mr. XYZ

    Anatoly, do you think making illegitimate children entitled to child support (which they weren’t in the US before the late 20th century) was more eugenic or dysgenic in its effects?

    Seems obviously dysgenic, though there might be some non-evident considerations I’m missing.

    As for Mendeleev’s projections for 2000, they probably included Russian Poland. So, you’re going to have to reduce it by several dozen million or so.

    Mendeleev’s was a simple model.
    Also he wasn’t including Galicia.

    My guess is you’d have had ~550 million: 400M core Slavs + 100M Central Asians (most of the increase accruing to Kazakhs) + 50M sundry Caucasians, Moldovans, Balts.

    Would a lot of Asians and Third Worlders be clamoring to move there just like they are clamoring to move to the West in real life?

    Most likely. Half the very limited number of mosques in both Saint-Petersburg and Moscow are late Tsarist era constructions.

    That’s around the time that the first mosques started to appear in Britain.

    It would also be interesting to see which Russian cities would have been the largest right now in this scenario.

    Recently discussed this elsewhere.

    Even a putative Russian Republic that lost Ukraine etc. would have 270M people, plus a bunch of immigrants from Central Asia. USA is very decentralized, and yet NY still packs 7% of the US population. So I’d say 20-25M is likely number for SPB in Small Russia scenario. (Note also there would have likely been no Soviet era propiska system heavily regulating immigrants into the capital, so even 30M or 10% of the population is not unrealistic).

    So, in scenario we’re discussing:

    SPB: 30-35M

    Moscow: 15-20M (~i.e. what it actually is today)

    SPB was bigger than Moscow – 2.3M vs. 1.8M on the eve of WW1, IIRC – and growing quicker. And probably would have kept its lead, just as NY did. 90% of financial activity was in SPB relative to Moscow. Moscow would have been the spiritual center, as well as a major manufacturing hub. Perhaps also bolder infrastructure development; construction on the original Moscow Metro began in 1914, while SPB had no metro plans at the outbreak of WW1.

    There were some discussions in Nicholas II’s circles about moving the capital back to Moscow, in line with neo-Muscovite artistic sentiment. Long shot, but if that had happened, Moscow and SPB would have ended up truly level pegging, I would guess.

    In reality, what happened is that after Bolshies moved capital to Moscow, SPB and Moscow swapped positions while keeping the same approximate ratio, though now loaded in favor of Moscow. But it was really the Siege of Leningrad that permanently destroyed SPB as a competitor to Moscow. Ever since, it has been been more Russia’s biggest millionik than its “northern capital”, IMO. The post-Soviet period beat in the last nail in its coffin (almost all the rich, repatriates, etc. went to Moscow, not banditized SPB).

    My personal belief is that this discontinuity between the two cities was caused by God punishing SPB for having hosted the fulcrum point of the Bolshevik Revolution. However, recent data shows that in the past few years, population growth in SPB has started to exceed Moscow’s. Perhaps a century old curse has been lifted.

    Kiev: 7M

    Odessa: 4M

    Odessa would have still been much bigger than it is today – only increased by 2x (!) over 20th century – but I revised my opinion it would be Russia’s third city, because I looked at its demographic history and saw that it was growing more slowly than a bunch of other places even during the 19th century.

    There’d also be vigorous competition from places like Krasnodar, Sochi, and Crimea due to greater freedom of movement. Without being correlated into Siberian iceboxes, Russians would be seeking to go to those places in much greater numbers, just as they have done since 1991 (population of Krasnodar and Sochi has doubled since then).

    Conversely, there would be another interesting effect. While the biggest metropolises will be twice bigger, and the southern cities will be multiple times bigger, the far northern and deep Siberian cities will likely be no more populated than they are today. Possibly even less. For instance, quite possible that Perm – a city that grew largely on the military-industrial complex in Soviet times – would only have 500,000 people, not a million.

    BTW, in regards to Greater India, an increase from 100 million to 1.7 billion is closer to 20x than to 10x.

    Agreed. But editing function seems to be frozen atm.

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  16. Dmitry says:

    Cool article. It’s the first article on Unz, I read without skipping any paragraphs, for about 6 months.

    An offtopic question. Why does Leningrad region always has such a lower fertility rate, according to media reports?

    Regionally, within Russia, Leningrad region is every year reported with the lowest fertility rate. At the moment their total fertility rate is being reported in the media as 1,124.

    The closest I have been to Leningrad region is Pulkovo, so I cannot add anything about the area. Probably this is just some statistical mistake created by internal migration (Saint-Petersburg usually has 0,2-3 higher TFR than Leningrad region)?

    They also always quite significantly behind other low fertility regions: Mordoviya has fertility of 1,255, Tambov region 1,333, Voronezh region 1,339, Penza region 1,348.

    Mordoviya is interesting, because in the Soviet Union, Mordvins used to have higher fertility rates than Russians (although Mordva population declined by intermarriage and assimilation).

    But in recent years, Mordvins’ birthrates have been declining heavily, especially with falls of Mordvin births in rural area* (I assume it is mainly internal migration causing this).


    *
    http://www.vestnik-argo.sfedu.ru/sites/default/files/25.%20%D0%9B%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0.pdf

    • Replies: @melanf
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  17. For a different perspective:

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  18. Once again, a totally superficial and lazy analysis by Anatoly.

    1) The map of Greek settlement shown near the beginning of the post is probably the Greek world around 500-400 BC. That is at least 80 years before the age of Alexander the Great. Also, the dispersed settlement of Greeks around the Mediterranean basin should not imply a large population. Most of these areas marked in red outside of heavily Greek areas in the Aegean Basin, Cyprus and southern Italy would have consisted of polis-states and small trading outposts or emporia. Those polis-states and trading outposts would have been heavily surrounded by non-Greek people.

    2) Greeks are not currently 10m people. We have to add the Greek Cypriots, Greeks of Northern Epirus and much of the Greek diaspora that identifies as Greek. The aggregate Greek population of the world is more like 15m. Officially, it is higher but we should adjust for those Greeks whose Hellenic identity is very faint.

    3) Regardless of the inaccurate number highlighted in 2), the Greek population increased from 10m to 15m, we must not forget a large proportion of Turks living near the western coasts of Anatolia are mostly Islamicised Greeks which are now lost to Hellenism forever. Spyros Vryonis detailed this process in his book, The Decline of Medieval Hellenism in Asia Minor and the Process of Islamization from the Eleventh through the Fifteenth Century.

    Turkish DNA samples bear this out.

    In addition, the Ottoman, Young Turks and Kemalist Turkey, removed about 800,000 to perhaps up to 1.2 million Greeks during the Christian Genocide of Anatolia. This is excruciatingly detailed in, The Thirty-Year Genocide: Turkey’s Destruction of Its Christian Minorities, 1894–1924 by Benny Morris and Dror Ze’evi. It is also borne out by the map comparing Anatolian population centres between 1900 and 2000 (again, this map is not accurate).

    https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674916456

    4) The Turkish population figure of 80.8m is again inaccurate. Present day Turkey is comprised of around 15-20% Kurds and another 20% Alevis. Core Sunni Turks constitute about 55-60% of the population of Turkey or around 44-48m. They have been demographic winners but not as great as one is meant to believe without looking into the data more critically which Anatoly characteristically fails to do.

    So, the ratio of Turks to Greeks + Armenians, assuming the lower figure of Armenians around the globe to adjust for Armenians whose identity is faint, is more like 2.1-1, and not 6:1 quoted by Anatoly.

    • Replies: @Cicerone, @Cutler
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  19. Yevardian says:

    My guesstimate is that the planet can support ~100 billion people.

    Rampant techno-utopianism again. Imagine how polluted, sectarian, fragile and easily disrupted a world even double current population would be.

    • Agree: Charon
    • Replies: @Malenfant, @songbird
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  20. Tony says:

    Of course the greek population didnt grow. You cant get pregnant from anal sex.

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  21. Malenfant says:
    @Yevardian

    Now imagine that this doubling has not affected all nations equally. Imagine that this new world contains a far higher relative proportion of Africans, Indians, Ultra-Orthodox Jews, and the Amish. (Mormon fertility isn’t far above replacement these days. It has declined sharply in recent years, and this decline shows no signs of abating.)

    A world of 100 billion Russians is at least conceivable. Likewise a world of 100 billion old-stock Americans, or 100 billion Englishmen. But these worlds are, sadly, not possible. The only remotely plausible 100 billion scenario — for some values of plausible — is a vision of hell.

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  22. Cicerone says:
    @Agathoklis

    About the diaspora: If they don‘t speak Greek, they can‘t be considered Greeks.

    • Agree: Andy
    • Replies: @Agathoklis, @Mr. XYZ
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  23. Bliss says:

    In 1900, Europe’s population (~400M) was quintuple that of Sub-Saharan Africa’s (~80M).

    If you add the European diaspora in the Americas, Oceania and the colonies in Asia and Africa there were well over 500 million Europeans on the planet in 1900 which made euros the most populous race of that time at close to a third of the human population. Ranking the 4 main races in 1900 would have looked like this:

    1. Europeans 500+ million
    2. East Asians 475 million
    3. Indians 270 million
    4. Subsaharan Africans 100+ million (including diaspora in Americas).

    In a couple decades the above ranking will be completely reversed. So the last shall be first and the first shall be last. (Matthew 20:16)

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  24. @prime noticer

    Idk. I’ve done some of that hooking up stuff (Tinder!!) but it’s not really that enjoyable. I got laid about once a month, with girls who were generally below my SMV. You have to use condoms (not risking an STD). It’s just not that fulfilling of a lifestyle. So I’m off of it now. I’m going volcel (no porn) until I get a gf.

    This type of lifestyle really is a mirage. If you talk to average guys, they don’t have much “success” on Tinder. Even less than me. It’s all a fake image (((they))) created; a wild party lifestyle where you have sex with a new partner every night you found on Tinder. It just doesn’t exist for 95% of men.

    We need to break men out of this conditioning.

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  25. I think one big problem of North East Asians is that they have no breeder group. At least I have never heard of any region, religious group or anything like that in Japan with high fertility.

    • Replies: @lauris71, @Daniel Chieh
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  26. Concerning Subsaharan African expansion I think it is even more striking to compare the the size of its population to either the entire rest of the world or to other specific regions than to Europe. E.g. around 1950 Subsaharan Africa had half of the population of India, by now it is roughly equal, in coming decades it is projected to grow much larger of course.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
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  27. Bliss says:

    Here’s a few more cool demographic facts from 1900:

    1. Anglo America (USA & Canada) had a larger population than all of Latin America combined.
    2. The Anglosphere had a population approaching twice that of Subsaharan Africa.
    3. Persia had just 7 million people and Arabia had just 4.2

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  28. @prime noticer

    a volcel (a new category of human)

    Hardly.

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  29. Hail says: • Website

    Great post, good data food-for-thought all around.

    A point some might call semantic point, but I’d like to make anyway:

    the number of White Americans today, the most populous single European ethnicity

    White Americans are probably best not called, or thought of, as a (single) ethnicity. I say that as a White American (multiple generations out of Europe on all branches).

    What do we mean when we say ethnicity? Political identity and ethnic identity are usually not the exact same thing.

    White Americans’ various strains of ethnopolitical identity (often based part on European ancestries but also region- and religion-based ethnic-like identity layers), are actually key, IMO, to understanding the USA and its politics. We are certainly not one ethnicity in any meaningful sense.

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  30. @Pericles

    Yes – the ‘Great White Death’ cited in the article.

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  31. Agathoklis says: • Website
    @Cicerone

    Precisely, and that is why I assume 15m, rather than 17-20m, which is often bandied about but that range assumes ancestry. Personally, the ability to converse somewhat in Greek is the marker which counts for ethnic Greek identity. Some ethnicities have religion we have language. There are some exceptions like certain Kappadokes Pre-1922.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
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  32. @Reg Cæsar

    Light sabers? Dudes,get yourself a broad.
    .

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  33. Svevlad says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I’d say south Siberia (Omsk, Novosibirsk, Irkutsk etc) and the southern far east (Khabarovsk, Vladivostok) would be slightly bigger (Vladivostok especially). The rest might have a more “equal” population distribution since I doubt a non-communist government would gather people in new settlements in their industrialization schemes. Though I suppose a gold (in this case, diamond) rush is always possible. Right now they seem to be holding back, unwilling to crash the global markets

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  34. melanf says:
    @Dmitry

    An offtopic question. Why does Leningrad region always has such a lower fertility rate, according to media reports? Regionally, within Russia, Leningrad region is every year reported with the lowest fertility rate. At the moment their total fertility rate is being reported in the media as 1,124

    .

    Probably St. Petersburg as a vacuum cleaner absorbs girls (ready to give birth ) from the Leningrad region. As a result, the age pyramid in the area is broken, and the birth rate is unusually low.

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  35. neutral says:

    Very bluntly we are going to have a real world planet of the apes.

    • Agree: Charon
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  36. Cutler says:
    @Agathoklis

    You are correct about Turks being closer to 60% of the population of Turkey and they are trending to decline in coming decades further still, The eastern regions which are majority Kurdish have much higher Tfr than western Turkey in fact the European parts of Turkey and the western fringes like Erdine have the same Tfr as the neighbouring European nations at iirc 1.5 ( Kurdish regions around 3.5-4 Tfr ) And alongside Islamicized Greeks at least 20% of Turks are descendants of Balkan immigrants ( Albanians Bosnians Pomaks ) who largely settled there before and after the turn of the century and have the same lower Tfr.
    I really enjoyed this thread.

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  37. @Agathoklis

    There were 8-10M Greeks who lived in culturally/politically Greek states in the age of Alexander the Great. There are 12M Greeks who live in a culturally/politically Greek state today (Greece and Cyprus). Not even a doubling.

    • Replies: @songbird, @J
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  38. Cicerone says:
    @melanf

    That has no effect on the fertility rate though.

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  39. Charon says:
    @Hail

    We are certainly not one ethnicity in any meaningful sense.

    Pretty much anywhere I go in this land of ours, I can count on white people being friendly, or at the very least civil. Unfortunately I’m unable to maintain a similar expectation with any other ‘ethnicity’. I’d say that’s meaningful.

    Separately, more in line with the principal topic here, I join with a few other commenters who are fairly horrified by the notion of a planet groaning under the weight of 10 billion humans, much less 100 billion.

    Before an online sperg jumps on me, I’m talking about things like environmental depredations and vanishing species. One day we may finally respect the amazing range of animal life this planet had. But much of it will be gone.

    • Replies: @songbird, @Anonymouse
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  40. LondonBob says:
    @prime noticer

    You obviously haven’t used tinder much. The STD thing is really a homosexual phenomenon.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
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  41. Yes, core Sunni Turk TFR is around 1.7. Turkish ethnic identity is arguably quite shallow and artificial. Around 150 years ago, the word “Turk” was derogatory and was synonymous with Turcophone rural peasants that adhered to Turkic tribal customs and sometimes even to traitors to the Ottoman Sultan. Note, the semi-nomadic Turkic tribes would often be targeted by the Ottoman state for their non-sedentary lifestyle and then as a reaction they would often side with rebels or invaders. This group of Ottoman subjects simply belonged to the Muslim millet which included all the other Muslims in the Umma such as Kurds, Arabs etc. There was no sense of there being a separate Turkish ethnos or genos as perhaps defined by people like Anthony D. Smith.

    It is this artificiality which probably allowed Kemal to change, almost overnight, the characters in their language, significantly change ancient customs and symbols, almost banish religion from public life, got rid of Sharia and the Caliph and significantly curtailed madrassas. Not surprisingly, Turkish identity has changed again, incorporating a strong Islamist element, under Erdogan.

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  42. @Bliss

    Well that passage is explicitly referring to the workings of the Kingdom of Heaven, not some demographic trend that will come true in the future. Add to that the fact that your reference points are completely arbitrary, Euros (particularly nordics) weren’t always most populous before that passage was written, and Africans surely not always least populous. We might as soon declare now to be the starting point in our interpretation, so a spectacular European comeback is inevitable!

    I don’t wanna see what Church you go to if you think clown world is what Heaven looks like, I have a feeling there would be a lot of bloody rams’ heads, altars with bronze bulls above a firepit, etc.

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  43. Very interesting article, although I hope the folly of trends sets in soon and sub saharans will reach 4 billion around the same time that the women’s 100m converges with the men’s.

    And I also think it’s a bit unfair to call the leadership of the imperium superstitious when according to the lore humanity unambiguously owes its survival to the god emperor, heresy is a legitimately grave threat to humanity’s existence.

    • Replies: @Cutler
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  44. songbird says:
    @Bliss

    3. Persia had just 7 million people and Arabia had just 4.2

    It is an interesting question what will happen to Arabia when it runs out of oil, or if fusion becomes mainstream. I suppose in the latter case they will still have energy for desalinization plants, so maybe they should be hoping for it.

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  45. songbird says:
    @Charon

    I’m talking about things like environmental depredations and vanishing species.

    When it comes to elephants and apes, I suppose Africans might make some sort of argument like, well, you killed your cave-lions and extinct megafauna.

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  46. songbird says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Makes one wonder about Greek genes. If you add up all the fractional Greeks. Kind of like how there are many, many more copies of Indio genes, post Columbian exchange.

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  47. songbird says:
    @Yevardian

    Pollution is really an energy problem. In theory, it can be solved, and it seems to be being solved, since in many cases, rivers and air are cleaner now than in the past.

    As to ethnic conflict, I suspect that in the end, globohomo will try to make us all forcefully miscegenate. This has been done before in Paraguay and Haiti. It is amazing how people with mixed DNA seem to be instant globalists.

    For instance, the other day, I heard an Arab, with a rather funny idea. He had taken a DNA test, and found out that he was 3% Irish, and some odd percent Nigerian. And now he claimed Irish people could not possibly object to him and others invading their country, without being racists. Obviously if it was not noise, it meant his ancestors had pillaged the Irish coasts in the past, or helped finance such pillaging.

    A lot of Arabs also have Russian DNA…

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  48. Bliss says:
    @Athletic and Whitesplosive

    Well that passage is explicitly referring to the workings of the Kingdom of Heaven

    The kingdom of God cometh not with observation: Neither shall they say, Lo here! or, lo there! for, behold, the kingdom of God is within you. Luke 17:20-21

    What part of the above don’t you understand? What are these “workings of the Kingdom of God” you speak of? If the Kingdom is God is unobservable how could it’s “workings” be known?

    not some demographic trend that will come true in the future.

    Of course captain obvious. You must be retarded if you think I didn’t know that.

    I have a feeling there would be a lot of bloody rams’ heads, altars with bronze bulls above a firepit, etc.

    That must be the Levantine/Phoenician/Canaanite religion you speak of. Right? You know, the cruel, barbaric religion that believed in a god who could only be appeased by the sacrifice of innocent children. Sound familiar to you? Isn’t that what you believe? Correct me if I am wrong.

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  49. Bliss says:
    @songbird

    The Saudis are not waiting for fusion energy:

    https://www.neom.com/

    WELCOME TO
    NEOM

    The world’s most ambitious project:
    an entire new land, purpose-built for a new way of living

    AS THE SUN RISES OVER NEOM, IT WILL GLINT AGAINST VAST FIELDS OF SOLAR PANELS PAIRED WITH WIND TURBINES AND LIGHT UP ENORMOUS STRETCHES OF ENERGY GRIDS STORING POWER FOR GENERATIONS.
    All this being sufficient to supply all of NEOM and beyond with low-cost regenerative energy. The beams, bridges and archways of this grand destination will be immaculate, untainted by pollution. Buildings will remain pristine and the air fresh and clear. And NEOM scientists will pioneer the future of energy production, use and storage – for water, gas, oil, solar, wind, algae… and whole new kinds of energy the world has yet to hear of.

    Looking at that website Neom does look like the world’s most ambitious project. It is far more ambitious than any Chinese project even and they are the current champions in that department. I never expected the Wahabbis to be so into futurism. Let’s hope they can make this happen.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
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  50. @Bliss

    Looking at that website Neom does look like the world’s most ambitious project.

    Mostly due to breathless PR, though. I mean, robot maids.

    https://www.arabianbusiness.com/construction/424840-glow-in-the-dark-sand-robot-maids-fake-moon-proposals-for-saudis-500bn-futuristic-city

    Doesn’t feel like it is serious. But I’ll be impressed if they accomplish some of it, at any rate.

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  51. Blackpill thread.

    Whites go from largest group to smallest group.
    Christians get raped in demographics in Asia Minor.
    Negroes keep having more babies.

    The white developments in health and technology are being used to destroy whites.

    On the plus side, East Asia is doing worse than us despite being developped for less time. South asia will likely follow soon.

    • Replies: @Maciano
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  52. Cutler says:
    @Athletic and Whitesplosive

    Do any actual demographers think Africa will hit 4 Billion ( there or there abouts ) by 2100 ?
    I have not read any who think this will come to pass and they are for the most part in agreement that the 2100 predictions are to distant to be accurate because 80 years provides a massive margin of error. Of course the 2050 figures are more likely but surely we ought to disregard the 2100 numbers.

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  53. songbird says:
    @Bliss

    I think Neom is an interesting idea.

    In theory, it seems to be a new model of globalism – an attempt to harness foreign human capital on the level of a local, limited area – not by abolishing borders.

    Can it be made an attractive place? Is the climate even right? Is the idea even workable? Singapore isn’t exactly part of Malaysia. Or is it just some shell game for MbS to stay in power? Whatever the case is, it will certainly be interesting to see what happens.

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  54. Andy says:

    Good thread. A few points: 1) of course, there are less Irish in Ireland today than in 1850 since most of them ended up in America. Not a bad thing for today’s Irish I suppose. It keeps the country beautiful without having too much density. Certainly the Irish are doing very well today, with one of the world’s highest per capita income, 2) I can’t imagine a world with 4 billion Subsaharan Africans. Happily, I will not be alive by then, 3) probably a lot of Turks are genetically descendant of the ancient Greeks. Certainly, the Turks of Turkey don’t look a lot like the Turkic peoples of Central Asia, 4) I agree that the maximum population that the Earth can support is probably a lot, far more than what environmentalists tell us. Personally, I aesthetically like wide-open spaces and don’t wish the Earth to be much more populated than it currently is.

    • Replies: @songbird, @RadicalCenter
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  55. songbird says:
    @Andy

    Certainly the Irish are doing very well today, with one of the world’s highest per capita income

    Fact: Ireland was a better place when it was poorer. And the Irish are not doing well today – they are governed by feckless, malign globalists, intent on an invasion greater than that that which happened under the plantation system. Under that process, there was a limit to the good land, and the Irish were still needed as laborers. Globalism has no such constraints.

    Cromwell would have at least given the Irish Connacht. Now, their own pols are settling Arabs and Africans in those scenic places. In tiny villages which were tourist attractions, and in the Gaeltacht – the part of Ireland which is supposed to keep alive the Irish language and culture.

    No, the Irish are not doing well. In fact, they are doing worse than ever, but with less interpersonal violence, premature mortality, and nobody going hungry.

    • Replies: @dfordoom, @houston 1992
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  56. Pericles says:
    @anonymous coward

    There are some striking similarities but I get the impression the White Death was strongly facilitated by (((Purdue Pharma))) making opioids readily available and prescribable. Was it the same thing in the SU?

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  57. dfordoom says: • Website
    @songbird

    Fact: Ireland was a better place when it was poorer.

    Perhaps all human societies were better when they were poorer. Perhaps prosperity is really bad for us. Perhaps prosperity always leads to decadence and thence to destruction.

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  58. @Erik Sieven

    If we in the West do not supply massive aid to Africa, hundreds of millions of Africans will starve or kill each other.

    It seems unlikely that we will be able to supply such aid fairly soon. As it is, much of the USA’s federal budget is borrowed, and this has been the case for almost all of the past thirty-five years — especially under Obama and Trump.

    Even the US fed gov’s dishonest on-the-books budget reveals that our rulers are borrowing one TRILLION dollars in FY 2019 out of $4.75 Trillion in spending. FY2020 looks about the same. We are back at the annual deficit levels of Obama’s first term (and his second term involved massive borrowing, too, just not as much).

    Certainly I hope that the next generation of Westerns is unWILLING to subsidize the dimwits in their mindless breeding, whether able to subsidize them or not. Then again, if we re not able to get the gov to stop subsidizing mindless breeding by our dimwits right here at home, what are the odds we’ll grow some balls and gain some common sense re Africa.

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  59. @LondonBob

    Given that I was engaged to be married before Tinder was founded, I am glad to say that I’ve never visited Tinder. Given that it seems to be geared toward commitment-free animal hookups, I wouldn’t visit it if I were single, either.

    Doesn’t change the fact that your statement about STDs being a homosexual problem is completely untrue. Many millions of heterosexual people have STDs, most often one of the 200 varieties of HPV and not rarely herpes.

    Homosexuals presumably have a far higher rate of STD infection, including HIV infection, due to their disgusting unnatural and inherently unhygienic/unsafe practices (anal fissures, anyone?) and extreme promiscuity, but it is wrong to say that STDs are predominantly a homosexual problem.

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  60. @songbird

    Yep, good point.

    Large numbers of Italians in Italy, and Italian-Americans like me, have at least a smattering of Greek genes.

    All of my Italian-descended relatives who have taken genetic tests and told us their results, have Greek genes, usually just a few percent but in several cases 10-15%. These are people whose ancestors came from Italy (not Sicily) to the USA in the 1880s and 1890s, and have no family lore about Greek background at all.

    A caveat is that one of the two big genetic testing companies popular in the USA/Canada narrows it down only to “Greek / Balkan.”

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  61. @songbird

    A source / evidence for the notion that a meaningful number of Arabs have Russian genetic background? Could be right, just want to see sources or examples.

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  62. @Andy

    Apparently there is reason to believe that Mr. Turkish Pride Caliph himself, Erdogan, has substantial Greek genes.

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  63. @Reg Cæsar

    perhaps i should have said porncel, or pornosexual, which many guys under 40 are today. vastly different than the volcels of centuries gone past.

    porn is fast, cheap, always there, and you always get what you want, every time, since you’re in control. do the ROI comparison to spending tons of time, energy, and money chasing women just to go down dead ends over and over.

    lots of guys today are choosing to be porncels. now wait until the really good sex robots arrive. those birth rates are gonna plummet. in fact, i wonder what effect the current generation of sex dolls are already having.

    women, who can have sex any time they want, are having trouble getting boyfriends. so something very different is clearly going on now. after years of watching the stats, i’m now inclined to believe them. millenials have much less sex than any humans before them.

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  64. @RadicalCenter

    Correct. Greeks and southern Italians/Sicilians have a strong genetic affinity because of an ancient shared genetic heritage primarily due to the Greek migrations prior to the Classical period.

    The Greeks in the West: genetic signatures of the Hellenic colonisation in southern Italy and Sicily

    https://www.nature.com/articles/ejhg2015124?foxtrotcallback=true

    Ancient and recent admixture layers in Sicily and Southern Italy trace multiple migration routes along the Mediterranean

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-01802-4

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  65. mal says:

    The Irish had the misfortune of living next to the English. In terms of deaths caused, between the starving of the Irish, Indians (on both continents), Opium Wars, British Empire will give Mao a run for his money. American colonists had the good sense of getting out early from that death camp. Sure, British look all civilized and gentle on TV shows, and the accent is enchanting. Civilized tea drinking makes the show, gassing of the Kurds afterwards – not so much.

    Anyway, future will indeed be exciting and interesting in the coming decades. With half the planet’s human population living in Sub Saharan Africa (and India), those places will become economic center of the planet. Economic power is entirely dependent on consumption, and consumption depends on human bodies available to consume. So Africa will win this body count race, at least this century.

    The good news for Planet Uganda is that humans are becoming superfluous to actual production. While Singularity is nonsense, I have no doubt the general intelligence AI will hit IQ of 100 by 2050 or sooner. Given that expert AI systems are already better than humans in their respective fields (diagnosing cancer, flying planes, driving cars, etc), vast majority of manufacturing of goods and services will be done by robots. The only real job on Planet Uganda will be to consume the output – hello Basic Income. Since robots dont care about money (try giving your toaster $100 bill – you will not impress it), robot owners won’t care about money either. In a world of negative interest rates, money will not matter to capitalist producers because anybody will be able to borrow a billion dollars or whatever to build a robot factory if interst rate is negative 5%. This will be massively deflationary (deflation is contraction of credit relative to goods and services provided – aside from default, nothing eliminates credit like self repaying loans). Consumption will go from ~60-70% of the economy to 90%+. Think video game becoming real life – it costs 0 game gold to make Magic Sword but you still need game gold to keep track of Magic Sword inventory and to gate keep players from doing silly things.

    The bad news for Planet Uganda is that Africa is home to strategic mining and refining complexes. This is fine today because current consumer California hipster doesn’t need to worry that every Green Tesla that he buys kills three kids in Africa in a toxic cobalt mine runoff – they are poor and far away. On Planet Uganda, a coalition of rabid environmental fanatics and well off consumer Africans will shut down civilization critical enterprises such as cobalt refineries. This is a major problem.

    Also, robots may not care about money, but they do care about cobalt. Very much so. And this is why our wise and kind corporate overlords are interested in space mining all of a sudden. On Planet Uganda, space will be the only place to build.

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  66. songbird says:
    @RadicalCenter

    Let me say Slavic rather than Russian to make it more open-ended, but Roxelana, for instance, was said to originally be from Ruthenia.

    From around 16th-19th century, a common estimate is about a million slaves taken from Europe. Many seem to have been taken from Eastern Europe, but expeditions were wide-ranging. White women were especially sought after as is recorded in prices. Many were sought as wives, so I am sure there is some detectable, albeit small, signal in many Arabs, from this, even excluding other events, like the Moorish or Ottoman invasions.

    Similarly, I think many Arabs have some detectable amount of sub-Saharan DNA. If you add in other factors such as the incipient universality of Islam and how widespread the Arabic language is, as well as their seeming conquest of much of Europe, and their common distaste for work, I think Arabs are easy converts to globalism. Unfortunately, at least for them, their TFR is falling, which perhaps makes them easy prey for other groups.

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  67. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Cicerone

    They would still have Greek DNA, no?

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  68. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Malenfant

    Now imagine that this doubling has not affected all nations equally. Imagine that this new world contains a far higher relative proportion of Africans, Indians, Ultra-Orthodox Jews, and the Amish. (Mormon fertility isn’t far above replacement these days. It has declined sharply in recent years, and this decline shows no signs of abating.)

    I thought that Indians (even those in India) don’t reproduce that much nowadays either?

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  69. songbird says:
    @RadicalCenter

    If we in the West do not supply massive aid to Africa, hundreds of millions of Africans will starve or kill each other.

    It seems unlikely that we will be able to supply such aid fairly soon.

    I’m not sure state-support is even needed for the 2100 projections. I’ve been thinking particularly about cricket farms, and how it is all done with robots. It would be pretty easy to scale up, with gigantic Amazon-style warehouses. All that is really needed is the support of international corporations. They might do it in trade for natural resources, or as part of some virtue-signaling scheme, where each purchase feeds ten Africans.

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  70. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Bliss

    Are Pakistanis and Bangladeshis included among Indians? If so, wouldn’t a better term for this be South Asians?

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  71. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Seems obviously dysgenic, though there might be some non-evident considerations I’m missing.

    AFAIK, the logic behind this was a principle of fairness. As in, it was perceived in the late 20th century as being unfair to deny children child support due to their illegitimacy.

    Mendeleev’s was a simple model.
    Also he wasn’t including Galicia.

    He also wasn’t including Subcarpathian Ruthenia or Ottoman Armenia or (Ottoman) Pontus or Constantinople or Mongolia or Xinjiang.

    My guess is you’d have had ~550 million: 400M core Slavs + 100M Central Asians (most of the increase accruing to Kazakhs) + 50M sundry Caucasians, Moldovans, Balts.

    25M for Caucasians, Moldovans, and Balts sounds much more realistic, no?

    Most likely. Half the very limited number of mosques in both Saint-Petersburg and Moscow are late Tsarist era constructions.

    That’s around the time that the first mosques started to appear in Britain.

    Do you think that Russia is going to have much more Hindus and Buddhists in this scenario as well?

    Also, as a side question, how many Russian Jews (also, out of a total of how many?) do you think are going to be living outside of the (former–it was abolished by the Russian Provisional Government in 1917) Pale of Settlement right now in this scenario?

    I know that in real life something like 4 out of 5 Soviet Jews were living outside of the former Pale of Settlement in May 1941 but with this figure being reduced to 1 out of 2 Soviet Jews in 1959 as a result of the Holocaust wiping out most of the Jewry in the Pale of Settlement (though about 1.0-1.5 million of them did, in fact, manage to evacuate in time in 1941-1942 and thus survived the Holocaust). Interestingly enough, nowadays Russia has more than three times Ukraine’s Jewish population–with Belarus’s Jewish population being almost nonexistent right now (less than 10,000, or about 0.1% of Belarus’s total population).

    Recently discussed this elsewhere.

    Where exactly (as in, which blog post and comment thread) is that comment of yours from?

    So, in scenario we’re discussing:

    SPB: 30-35M

    Moscow: 15-20M (~i.e. what it actually is today)

    SPB was bigger than Moscow – 2.3M vs. 1.8M on the eve of WW1, IIRC – and growing quicker. And probably would have kept its lead, just as NY did. 90% of financial activity was in SPB relative to Moscow. Moscow would have been the spiritual center, as well as a major manufacturing hub. Perhaps also bolder infrastructure development; construction on the original Moscow Metro began in 1914, while SPB had no metro plans at the outbreak of WW1.

    There were some discussions in Nicholas II’s circles about moving the capital back to Moscow, in line with neo-Muscovite artistic sentiment. Long shot, but if that had happened, Moscow and SPB would have ended up truly level pegging, I would guess.

    In reality, what happened is that after Bolshies moved capital to Moscow, SPB and Moscow swapped positions while keeping the same approximate ratio, though now loaded in favor of Moscow. But it was really the Siege of Leningrad that permanently destroyed SPB as a competitor to Moscow. Ever since, it has been been more Russia’s biggest millionik than its “northern capital”, IMO. The post-Soviet period beat in the last nail in its coffin (almost all the rich, repatriates, etc. went to Moscow, not banditized SPB).

    My personal belief is that this discontinuity between the two cities was caused by God punishing SPB for having hosted the fulcrum point of the Bolshevik Revolution. However, recent data shows that in the past few years, population growth in SPB has started to exceed Moscow’s. Perhaps a century old curse has been lifted.

    Was losing several hundred thousand people or so in the Siege of Leningrad *that* devastating for St. Petersburg? I mean, most of St. Petersburg’s population survived this siege, no?

    Also, your projections here sound reasonable, though it’s worth noting that New York appears to be much closer to other major US urban centers (Boston, Philadelphia, Baltimore, the Washington DC area, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, even Chicago) than St. Petersburg is. St. Petersburg is sort of in the middle of nowhere–in part due to its extremely northern location. Granted, I get the logic in people moving en masse to the capital, but still, if the capital is in the middle of nowhere, well, it isn’t exactly encouraging.

    I suppose that one good test for this would be to see just how many people will move to Indonesia’s new planned capital in Borneo–which likewise appears to be in the middle of nowhere.

    Kiev: 7M

    Possible–especially if it will be made the capital of a Ukrainian autonomous region in Russia in this scenario.

    Odessa: 4M

    Odessa would have still been much bigger than it is today – only increased by 2x (!) over 20th century – but I revised my opinion it would be Russia’s third city, because I looked at its demographic history and saw that it was growing more slowly than a bunch of other places even during the 19th century.

    There’d also be vigorous competition from places like Krasnodar, Sochi, and Crimea due to greater freedom of movement. Without being correlated into Siberian iceboxes, Russians would be seeking to go to those places in much greater numbers, just as they have done since 1991 (population of Krasnodar and Sochi has doubled since then).

    Conversely, there would be another interesting effect. While the biggest metropolises will be twice bigger, and the southern cities will be multiple times bigger, the far northern and deep Siberian cities will likely be no more populated than they are today. Possibly even less. For instance, quite possible that Perm – a city that grew largely on the military-industrial complex in Soviet times – would only have 500,000 people, not a million.

    TBH, I wonder if 2-3 million for Odessa would have been somewhat more realistic. That said, though, I generally agree with your analysis in regards to everything here.

    BTW, how many people do you think that Constantinople would have had right now had Russia avoided the Bolshevik coup, remained in WWI until the very end, and acquired it after the end of the war? FTR, I don’t think that the US would have looked very favorably at a Russian expulsion of Constantinople’s Muslim population–so it’s probably not going to happen in a scenario where the US still enters WWI.

    In addition, do you think that Odessa would have been Russia’s fourth-largest city in this scenario or would some other city have been the fourth–with Odessa being in fifth place or lower? (I’m presuming that Kiev would, of course, be number three.)

    Also, how many people do you think that cities such as Riga, Tallinn, Vilnius, and Kaunas are going to have right now in this scenario? In addition, I was wondering if the Baltics are going to see even more Russian/East Slavic migration in this scenario than they did in real life. At the very least, Estonia has an average IQ that isn’t that much lower than Moscow’s and if Estonia will remain a part of Russia, one would think that its high quality of life would be attractive for a good number of Russians, no? (BTW, I’m presuming that Russia would have still eventually lost both Poland and Finland, correct?)

    As a side note, I looked at a topographic map of Ottoman Armenia and Pontus and the topography there (mostly extremely high mountains with a very narrow coastal area) would probably prevent large-scale population expansion there. I don’t think that Russians/Eastern Slavs are going to be particularly willing to move to extremely mountainous areas in eastern Anatolia, and as I said the amount of coastal territory with a low elevation in this area (Pontus) is very, very small. In fact, this is probably why northeastern Turkey has no cities that have a population of one million or more right now. The largest is Samsun and the next largest is Trebizond, I believe. Neither has a population of one million or more and Trebizond doesn’t even have a population of half a million.

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  72. -I thought some cossacks and old believers are russian “amish” with high fertility.

    ” There are a total of 2 million old believers in Russia, and out of that some 200,000 are ultra-orthodox old believers, who don’t have much contact with the outside world.

    Most of them are scattered around in the Siberian provinces of Krasnoyarsk, Irkutsk, HMAO, Tyva, Altay, Amur, and Khabarovsk. They constitute only 0.1 to 0.2% of the total Russian population.

    If you check the Provincial Statistics Site of the Krasnoyarsk Krai, you can see that the birth rate of “ultra-orthodox” old believer villages are 4 to 5 times higher than the surrounding villages.

    Although they are getting some media attention now, earlier they were almost completely forgotten by the government. Recently during the 2002 and 2010 Censuses, some of their villages were counted. No information exists for those who live deep inside the Taiga. For example, several hundreds of old believers live in the Tannu Ola and Sayan mountains of Tyva, but none of them were counted during the 2010 Census.

    One reason why some of the Provincial authorities count the more accessible old believer villages now is to show Putin that their birth rates are higher than the surrounding provinces. For example, up to 2008 Krasnoyarsk was having more deaths than births. When they started counting the births and deaths in the old believer villages, suddenly the province became one of the few regions in Russia with natural population growth. ”

    -amish populatuin growth:

    Year Pop. %±
    1920 5,000 —
    1928 7,000 40.0%
    1936 9,000 28.6%
    1944 13,000 44.4%
    1952 19,000 46.2%
    1960 28,000 47.4%
    1968 39,000 39.3%
    1976 57,000 46.2%
    1984 84,000 47.4%
    1992 125,000 48.8%
    2000 166,000 32.8%
    2008 221,000 33.1%
    2010 249,000 12.7%

    from this i can deduce that the Amish have a growth rate of over 5% a year.
    more than 6.3% from 2008-2010.
    so here is where my equation comes in from there growth rates lets conservatively assume a 5% yearly growth rate this means that there population will easily double every 20 years.

    2010 250,000
    2030 500,000
    2050 1m
    2070 2m
    2090 4m
    2110 8m
    2130 16m
    2150 32m
    2170 64m
    2190 128m

    -in USA there is also 50 000 hutterites , 500 000 mennonites with quite high fertility.

    About jews:

    Ultra-Orthodox Jews are what ignorant people pejoratively call “black-hatters;” there are many different sects, from Chabad to Satmar, all divided based on traditions, theology, structure, and place of origin. One thing they all share in common however, is having a lot of kids.

    8 kids, to be exact.

    That’s right, the average Ultra-Orthodox Jewish women will have, in her lifetime, 8 kids, one of the highest, if not the highest, fertility rates of any group in the world. To provide some contrast, in Niger, the fastest-growing country in the world, the average woman has 7 kids.

    According to Professor Comenetz at the University of Florida,

    In America too, where the Jewish population is stable or declining, Ultra-Orthodox Jewish numbers are growing rapidly.

    The Ultra-orthodox population doubles every 20 years, which…may make the Jewish community not only more religiously observant but more politically conservative…the Ultra-orthodox population in 2000 was about 360,000, 7.2 per cent of the approximately 5 million Jews in the U.S.

    But in 2006, demographers now estimate the number had grown to 468,000 or 9.4 per cent.

    8 kids on average works out to about a 6% growth rate per year. Assuming a base population of 510,000 Ultra-Orthodox Jews in the USA and UK in 2006, by the year 2050 there will be approximately…6,622,595 Ultra-Orthodox Jews.

    There are only about 5,800,000 total Jews in the USA today.

    And what would their population be in 2100? 121,989,235, about the population of the UK and France combined (Note: This does not even take into account the 700,000-strong Israeli community, whose inclusion would raise the population projection to 15,712,433 and 289,425,442 people in 2050 and 2100 respectively).

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  73. It’s the population density, stupid

    Given the right climate, nutrients, sunlight, growing medium and propagating entity, plants grow and multiply. Plants do not care if there isn’t adequate space to produce young. Just look at the rainforest and that pot of Aloe Vera. Given the right conditions, both will multiply and grow denser and denser.

    The fittest survive, that is the law of nature. Plants abide by this rule. Each shoot will try to outgrow the other, spreading their influence as wide as they can. The weaker ones eventually die out as their reach for sunlight or nutrients diminish.

    Singapore is a fine country with top notch education, medical and childcare facilities. The people are among the richest nationality in the world. We have the right conditions to propagate, we do not lack resources and wealth. Looking at it from the scientific point of view, Singaporeans can have a lot of children. Singaporean couples can get married without getting a HDB flat first. Couples can have children without their own ‘love nest’. Couples can have 3 children or more living in a 67sqm apartment. Couples can have children without finishing their university program. Couples can have children without establishing their careers. Or without having a high income. If any Singaporean says we can’t do that, he is lying. Many of our parents did that. Their children turned out alright, people like you and me. Though times have changed, each generation has their unique challenges and can be overcome. It can be done, it is proven but Singaporeans are not having children. Why?

    Humans are not plants. We are subconsciously aware of our need of space. Every human being needs physical space to live, not only living space but a right amount of personal space to make the environment conducive for having children. Consider this:

    Macau, Hong Kong, Singapore.

    What do they have in common? The three countries (or city-states if you like to call them) have the lowest fertility rate in the world, Hong Kong (1.09), Macau (0.92), Singapore (0.78) and the most super crowded, Macau (19610/km2), Singapore (7362km2), Hong Kong (6452 km2).

    Coincidence? “What do you think?”

    I think that we have overlooked the importance of space as a correlation to fertility rate. Wide open spaces make child-rearing more attractive. Bringing up a large family in a tiny 67sqm HDB flat is a struggle, even if you can fold away your bed during the day. A high density population also means very stiff competition for child care resources, education, future housing and good jobs for our young. Our people are subconsciously reacting to an environment which is not conducive for their young and protecting them by not producing at all. In short, the people do not see a future for their young in Singapore.

    With the lowest fertility and the highest population density in the world, we are left in a catch-22 situation whereby we need foreigners to support the aging population because we are not producing, because the influx of foreigners created an environment unsuitable to have children. It looks like we have big decisions to make.

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  74. @Mr. XYZ

    Correct. But biology does not necessarily equate to ethnicity. There are many Americans of German ancestry but they are hardly ethnically German because they have lost their ability to converse in the German language. Of course, there are other cultural markers but that is the most important one.

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  75. Muggles says:

    This truism may shed light: if you want more of something, subsidize it; less of it, tax it.

    Now in a general sense “tax” and “subsidy” can mean simply economic incentive and disincentive.

    Economists have measured the effect on increasing household wealth on birthrates. As nations prosper birthrates drop, even when religious objections to birth control/abortion exist.

    African birthrates haven’t dropped since larger families aren’t an economic drag, usually. More cousins and clan members to mooch off of. Usually some food subsidies. The ancient “safety net” of large families in old age. Little marginal cost to adding more babies. Some under your roof, some in other roofs. Only when starvation limits families is there a “tax.”

    Contrast this to other places. More children, more expense. Even with some State subsidy your housing gets crowded, your income is divided further, household costs go up much more than subsidy does. In the USA originally the tax system let children’s Personal Exemptions largely zero out lower and middle class income tax burden. For the past 40 years this has disappeared, now entirely gone. No tax savings w/ children. So in general, look at costs and benefits.

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  76. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Agathoklis

    TBH, I actually do consider Americans such as Doris Day to be both ethnically German and also be part of a larger “white American” nation/ethnicity.

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  77. @songbird

    IN the 70’s and 80’s , Ireland was a consumer society without the money to consume what they desired, nor live the glamorous lifestyles that imported TV programs presented.
    Once they had the money and the freedom it conferred, they went full globalist.

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  78. AP says:
    @songbird

    Let me say Slavic rather than Russian to make it more open-ended, but Roxelana, for instance, was said to originally be from Ruthenia.

    She was from what is now Ivano-Frankivsk oblast in Galicia, Western Ukraine. The name continues to be used in Ukraine.

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  79. songbird says:
    @AP

    The name continues to be used in Ukraine.

    That’s interesting. I didn’t know that.

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  80. @Finnishdude

    This describes California as well. But nobody is going to take the measures that need to be taken to even ameliorate these problems for actual Americans.

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  81. @Muggles

    Appreciate your analysis. Just gotta quibble on one point.

    Before the Trump tax bill that took effect Jan. 1, 2018, the federal government offered an income tax credit (not merely a deduction) of $1,000 per child.

    The bill increased that to $2,000 per child. I think it should be much larger, and it should go until age 18, not 17.

    But the point is that if one earns enough to actually pay federal income tax — which tens of millions of people don’t — there ARE federal tax savings in the USA due to having children.

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  82. Bliss says:
    @Finnishdude

    I think that we have overlooked the importance of space as a correlation to fertility rate.

    True dat. Urbanization correlates well with lower fertility rates. The rapid urbanization of China will be more negative for its fertility rate than the one-child policy ever was.

    The three countries (or city-states if you like to call them) have the lowest fertility rate in the world, Hong Kong (1.09), Macau (0.92), Singapore (0.78)

    Wow. Good thing they have plenty immigrants coming in.

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  83. @Mr. XYZ

    Rubbish. If we refer to the typical ethno-symbolist schema of defining an ethnic group:

    -a collective proper name
    -a myth of common ancestry
    -shared historical memories
    -one or more differentiating elements of common culture such as kinship, religion, language, national origin, and historicity
    -an association with a specific “homeland”
    -a sense of solidarity for significant sectors of the population.

    Where would someone like Doris Day fit into that? Perhaps the only element would be some vague memory of common descent with German people (via her grandparents) but that is about it. She would simply be an American with German descent.

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  84. Muggles says:
    @RadicalCenter

    re: Radical Center.

    If you look at the approx. 1954 tax laws you will find that w/ the standard deduction and personal exemptions for parents/children very few middle class taxpayers had any income tax liability.

    The personal exemptions and std. deduction didn’t index w/ inflation so over the decades removed much of the income tax savings. Yes, tax credits were added for children but under current tax law the only tax savings (unless very low income) is that $2K tax credit/child. That isn’t much for an average tax bill of say $12-20K total. No exemption for parents and very few unless paying a lot of mortgage interest, can claim itemized deductions.

    Basically children (unless low income) are a huge economic drag both for taxation and for other things like education. Private schools (in large metro areas, a necessity) aren’t subsidized. Nor is health insurance. Overall “children added are taxed heavily (in economic terms)” unless you are a net welfare recipient or low wage household. No incentive for average or middle class parents to have children, just more expenses. Unlike Third World households where over breeding adds little to no cost and likely entails some free benefits, or at least possible retirement income.

    • Agree: reiner Tor
    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
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  85. @Muggles

    These are excellent points, thank you, Muggles. I was just responding to the notion that there’s no federal income tax benefit to having children. There is, just not enough and not entirely for the people who we should be subsidizing and incentivizing.

    On a related note, I am not sure whether the fed child tax credit is “refundable.” As you know, “refundable” is federal tax doublespeak for “getting ‘back’ more than you paid in the first place.”

    If the fed child tax credit is refundable, then we are subsidizing additional births by people who do not earn enough to pay any federal income tax at all (fed income tax proper, not Medicare and Social Security taxes). Many of that group are fine people, many are reasonably intelligent and industrious, etc. But many are not.

    And in either event there’s little reason to think that we benefit, on balance, from more children being born to such people — especially given how many of the people filing fed tax returns but paying “less than zero” (getting more than they paid in) are single mothers with no father(s) in sight. This isn’t even a moral judgment, just a contention that society generally doesn’t benefit when we use tax policy to subsidize / incentivize more births by women who are not married and often are not living in a stable arrangement with any one of the children’s fathers.

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  86. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Agathoklis

    Shouldn’t DNA be included in your list here, though?

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @Agathoklis
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  87. EldnahYm says:
    @mal

    The Irish had the misfortune of living next to the English. In terms of deaths caused, between the starving of the Irish, Indians (on both continents), Opium Wars, British Empire will give Mao a run for his money. American colonists had the good sense of getting out early from that death camp. Sure, British look all civilized and gentle on TV shows, and the accent is enchanting. Civilized tea drinking makes the show, gassing of the Kurds afterwards – not so much.

    It’s the English who have suffered the misfortune of living next to the Irish. If this were not so one would not see so many Irish migrating to England(and Scotland by the way), not to mention the rest of the former British colonies, and doing their best to ruin them(successfully ruined in the case of the U.S.). Even the conflicts within Ireland like the Troubles have much to do with smuggling of goods from Britain into that land. Irish complain all the time about how terrible the English are, yet their actions invariably show they can’t get enough of them.

    The English landlords were dicks during the Irish famine sure, but they can hardly be blamed for an oomycete ruining crops, or for that matter the Irish decision to become single crop dependent. If that’s the worst that the English can be blamed for, they should be celebrated as benevolent overlords.

    The later Qing dynasty was plagued with revolts and famines, the casualties of the Opium Wars are utterly trivial compared to the Taiping rebellion, Dungan Revolt, or numerous famines which occurred. The Opium Wars might be looked at now as a national humiliation, but in terms of casualties they are hardly worth mentioning.

    The majority of New World Indian deaths happened in more populated South America, so if we’re going to blame someone it’s the Spanish. Even in North America the English were hardly the only colonists around and therefore can only share a portion of the blame. Accidental death due to disease is qualitatively different than Maoist famines anyhow.

    India had positive population growth during the British period. It’s normal for countries that experience population booms to have famines in Malthusian conditions. India undoubtedly had plenty of famines before the British came along. India’s economic growth today is almost entirely attributable to English language proficiency and the green revolution. Anglos have nothing to apologize for to ingrate Indians.

    The Kurds are a race of brigands who cynically switch sides in any conflict and were enthusiastic participants in massacres and ethnic cleansing of Armenians and Assyrians.

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  88. songbird says:

    Today there is a woke movement to shrink Europe on maps, but I wonder if Europe would be less woke, if it actually were shrunk on maps.

    People see these sun-belt countries, and on a Mercator projection, they all look smaller they are. Looks like there is so much space in Europe to absorb everyone, and it seems that way in other ice countries too. Africa looks tiny compared to Eurasia. Russia looks invincible.

    I’m not too sure that it’s good that sun peoples see ice people’s countries as big places either.

    I will also say that I think what is more important than geography or almost any other subject is demographics, and students should be taught more about demographics.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
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  89. Dmitry says:
    @songbird

    Russia looks invincible. countries as big places either.

    Lol I have some image from your comment of the Mercator projection fooling the innocent and naive Africans to immigrate to Vorkuta because it looks like a lot of space there.

    Of course, the conclusion is predictable. Africans are too weak, spoilt and used to luxury. Their soft spirit can be broken in a week, and they will run back to Africa before the local drunk even has an opportunity to piss in the corridor of their apartment complex.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3q2NXUsbVY

    • Replies: @songbird, @The Scalpel
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  90. Dmitry says:
    @melanf

    Total fertility rate, however, is calculated by adding together age-specific fertility rates (i.e. divided number of people in each age group). So it should be independent of the population pyramid.

    Although it’s possible though there is a problem in the way it is reported, or calculated in these media reports.

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  91. @songbird

    Why? It was the more violent groups who were exterminated according to archaeogenetics. Neolithic Scandinavians for example were ridiculousky violent and got wiped out by the less violent people from the Battle Axe culture.

    Click here to see how violent Scandinavian neolithic people were:

    http://www.dandebat.dk/eng-dk-historie7.htm

    • Replies: @songbird
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  92. @Finnishdude

    Hey i just checked the Singstat data for this years Singapore demography. What is interesting is that Malays have a TFR of 1.84 compared to about 1 for Chinese and Indians. The reason probably is because Islam is more family orientated. Or they dont play status games so much.So i do not think that it is all about material conditions, since the material conditions for the races are similiar (dense HDB)

    The problem with the aging population can be solved by having a large expat population but not giving out citizenshp. Thus you can collect tax but dont have liability to pay for their retirement.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
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  93. AP says:

    The population ratio between Russia and the Ukraine fell from less than 3:1 to almost 5:1 since 1992. It is ironic that Ukrainian independence has been worse for Ukraine’s population balance vis-a-vis Russia

    This isn’t nearly as bad for Ukraine as you suggest. A lot of the population loss for Ukraine, the country, was the loss of ethnic Russians who would have been a fifth column. Is Ukraine somehow weaker or worse off vis a vis Russia now that it no longer has anti-Ukrainian ethnic Russians in Crimea within its borders?

    Loss of Russians leaves Ukraine better off, not worse off. Ukraine with over ten million Russians and defacto Russians was 1/3 of Russia’s population, Ukraine without them is between 1/4 and 1/5 of Russia’s population.

    What is the ratio of ethnic Ukrainians in Ukraine now vs. Russia now vs. in 1991?

    In 1989 there were 37.4 million ethnic Ukrainians in the Ukrainian SSR. That year there were 147.7 million people in Russia. So the ethnic Ukrainian population was 25.3% of Russia’s population.

    I’d guess currently there are about 32 million ethnic Ukrainians in Ukraine. Russia’s population is about 145 million. So the ethnic Ukrainian population is 22.1% of Russia’s population.

    Not a very dramatic difference.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
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  94. songbird says:
    @Sam Coulton

    Didn’t mean to actually suggest that earlier waves were peaceful.

    However, if I had a choice, I’d least like to come up against nomadic pastoralists. Judging from small evidence, some of my ancestors from the Middle Ages seem like they were pretty rough people, when it came to cows, and they had fixed residences. Most likely, they would have made mincemeat out of the Amish.

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  95. songbird says:
    @Dmitry

    I can’t decide whether I would make Europe invisible on African maps or fill it with ice dragons.

    Vorkuta would be a great location for a deportation camp. Overstay a visa, or try to enter Europe illegally and spend a winter in Vorkuta, before being deported back.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
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  96. The Scalpel says: • Website
    @Dmitry

    That is one bleak looking place!

    • Replies: @Dmitry
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  97. BlackFlag says:
    @Finnishdude

    But all these groups reject modern technology. Eventually they will overshoot their economic niche and be unable to afford such high reproduction.

    Unless they risk undergoing cultural changes that allow them to harness modern tech. Can they do that without damaging their fertility? Have some already tried?

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  98. Mr. XYZ says:
    @AP

    I’d guess currently there are about 32 million ethnic Ukrainians in Ukraine. Russia’s population is about 145 million. So the ethnic Ukrainian population is 22.1% of Russia’s population.

    Shouldn’t you include Crimea (officially Russian) and the separatist-controlled Donbass (de facto Russian) in your calculations, though? They’d give Russia a slight boost right now–albeit one that probably isn’t that large.

    • Replies: @AP
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  99. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Hong Xiu Quan

    Interestingly enough, I’ve previously read that Malays in Singapore have an average score of 495 on PISA. So, almost equivalent to (0.05 standard deviations lower than) the OECD average. I guess that Singapore must have skimmed the cream off of the Malay crop.

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  100. @Mr. XYZ

    That is covered in kinship.

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  101. Hail says: • Website

    The world population of Greeks has been steady at ~10 million since the age of Alexander the Great. Their percentage of the world total plummeted from ~5% to slightly more than 0.1% today.

    (As other commenters suggest,) How much of this change (or ‘non-change;’ apparent zero-net-growth) is a question of culture-identity and how much genes is interesting.

    A small example is that Paul of Tarsus (live circa AD 1 to 67), the great evangelist of the Christian religion. He was, by some plausible definitions, a Greek. He was an educated Greek speaker, and scholars say a native Greek speaker. Also a Roman citizen, which had solidly subsumed Greek citizenship by his time, of course. Yet if Paul of Tarsus’ genes survive in the present, they almost certainly are not in what are today called Greeks.

    • Replies: @Agathoklis
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  102. @Hail

    That is a good point. Lucian (or Loukianos) the great satirist, rhetorician, novelist and short story writer was very likely born to a family that spoke Syriac and was probably Assyrian but his Hellenic education was so thorough that he is considered one of the great Attic stylists of all time. He also knew better than anyone during his age, Greek religious beliefs and practices. In all intents and purposes he was a Hellene.

    F.E. Peter’s, Harvest of Hellenism does a great job in showing how this acculturation process worked. Unfortunately, it is out of print.

    https://www.amazon.com/Harvest-Hellenism-History-Alexander-Christianity/dp/0760701296

    • Replies: @dfordoom
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  103. @Finnishdude

    Macau, Hong Kong, Singapore.

    What do they have in common?

    All are East Asian, highly educated, liberated females who want nothing to do with local males.

    I think that we have overlooked the importance of space as a correlation to fertility rate. Wide open spaces make child-rearing more attractive. Bringing up a large family in a tiny 67sqm HDB flat is a struggle, even if you can fold away your bed during the day.

    For most of human history, families were raised in tents, wagons, boats or cabins measuring <5sqm.

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  104. (9) So far as I can tell, the Latvians, Estonians, and Ashkenazi Jews are the only peoples with fewer people today than in 1914. It is ironic that they played the most disproportionate roles (per capita) in cementing Bolshevism in Russia. God must really hate commies.

    Jewish establishment policy during the 20th Century is claimed to have been good, leading to dominance of the West in the early 21st Century. It has actually been very bad.

    Counterinsurgency

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  105. Willem says:

    1) there is quantity and quality, and while the former is much easier to define, the latter is much more important
    2) culture is overestimated, and since humans are the same everywhere, it does not really matter which population of a certain country grows faster than another. What matters is an even distribution of healthcare, possibilities, and ability to let your off-spring get a life that can be defined as ‘decent’. This world is incredibly rich in resources. No reason, except for greed, that say 5% of the world population owns 90% of everything that is produced worldwide.
    3) it surprises me that people like Anthony Karlin can’t see that the culture struggle is a class struggle. He surely seems bright enough, yet doesn’t even discuss class in this culture struggle analysis, as if class does not exist. Bright, yet blind…

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  106. ‘… Assuming a threefold expansion in all of these populations, we could have been looking to a Russian Empire or Republic with a further ~120M fully Russified Belorussians and largely Russified Ukrainians, for a total Slavic population of almost 400M…’

    This helps to explain the calculation of the Wilhelmine German General Staff that if war with Russia was delayed past 1916, it would be unwinnable.

    Given the German role in reintroducing Bolshevism into Russia, and of course their invasion of 1941-43, you could even say that the Germans did manage to defeat the Russian menace. The difficulty was of course that they lost the wars themselves as well.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Mr. XYZ
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  107. Smith says:

    The demographics question can always be solved by cloning, genetics and eugenics, Warhammer 40K-style.

    What matters is the will, not how.

    And even on natural means, population will naturally breed faster if society and culture encourage it. In fact, hardship and poor livelihood might in fact increase birthrate.

    @Willem:
    Classic communist but class is a non-question. There will always be have and have-not, people aren’t equal and the same and they will remain so. An european is not the same as an asian, nor an african.

    What matters is that they contribute their part to the people/nation as a whole.

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  108. @Curious

    ‘…Erdogan’s pan-Islamism is eroding the ethnic character of the country…’

    Well, that could be seen as a reversion to the norm. Anatolia was never mono-ethnic: not in classical times, not under Byzantine rule, and certainly not under the Ottomans. It was only under the secular Turkish Republic that ‘Turkey’ became synonymous with ‘Anatolia.’

    I like Turkey myself, but if the prediction is borne out, it’s really just going to mark a return to business as usual.

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  109. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Agathoklis

    That is a good point. Lucian (or Loukianos) the great satirist, rhetorician, novelist and short story writer was very likely born to a family that spoke Syriac and was probably Assyrian but his Hellenic education was so thorough that he is considered one of the great Attic stylists of all time. He also knew better than anyone during his age, Greek religious beliefs and practices. In all intents and purposes he was a Hellene.

    It’s almost as if culture trumps genetics.

    • Replies: @Smith
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  110. I another half a Century the DPRK will be younger and have a larger army then Worst Korea, having a higher TFR might turn out to be better then having a Nuke for Pyongyang
    Especially is Seul decides to go full Globo-Homo and turn the country into a multi-cultural hellhole, wouldn’t be surprised if it’s already happening given how obsessed with imitating the US they’ve been (for instance, ROK has huge circumcision rates after it was introduced by American doctors during the Korean War)

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  111. Hail says: • Website

    An idea for a cool 26th demographic fact:

    Proto-Indo-European demographics circa 3000 BC vs. today’s Indo-European demographics (genetic vs. cultural vs. language).

    _____________

    My attempt to make this ambitious calculation:

    – circa 230,000 : Total Proto-Indo-European population in 3000 BC, before their waves of expansion began [0.5% to 1.0% of world population? in 3000 BC];

    – Of this grand proto-IE population total, we might fairly guess, based on later migration patterns, that a third of them went west and would become partial ancestors of the future ethnic groups of Europe — one third would be a pre-expansion population of 75,000 who later went west into Europe. [0.15% to 0.33% of world pop.] (assuming a world pop. for 3000 BC at 30 million, per from HYDE [2010].)

    (see below for how I made this calculation; would welcome thoughts on accuracy).

    – circa 400 to 500 million : Indo-European person-equivalents in Europe and North America alone (if Indo-European ancestry contributes 40 to 50% of the ultimate racial stock of the globe’s 1,000 million Europeans) by AD 2000. [7.5% of world population in AD 2000, a lot more still, by %, in AD 1900].

    [MORE]
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  112. Smith says:
    @dfordoom

    Without genetics, no culture.

    You can teach a dog to run, it will never run as fast as a horse.

    • Replies: @iffen
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  113. @Malenfant

    ‘A world of 100 billion Russians is at least conceivable. Likewise a world of 100 billion old-stock Americans, or 100 billion Englishmen. But these worlds are, sadly, not possible. The only remotely plausible 100 billion scenario — for some values of plausible — is a vision of hell.’

    Oh, I dunno. I imagine fifty billion Chinese with fifty billion properly trained black slaves could make for a reasonably civilized society. Perhaps not one you or I would find congenial — but that’s a different matter. After all, I probably wouldn’t care for tenth century Constantinople, either. That doesn’t make it hell.

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  114. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Bliss

    Urbanization correlates well with lower fertility rates.

    That’s true. But I don’t think it’s lack of space that’s the problem. There are other evils associated with urbanisation. Too many distractions for one thing. And cities attract undesirables – grifters, sexual deviants seeking the anonymity of the city, criminals, intellectuals, artists, gamblers, drug dealers. So cities breed decadence and degeneracy.

    The anonymity of city life may be the biggest problem. Cities destroy the sense of community and connectedness. They destroy the sense of social responsibility. They encourage destructive individualism.

    But I don’t think space is a factor.

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  115. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Willem

    it surprises me that people like Anthony Karlin can’t see that the culture struggle is a class struggle. He surely seems bright enough, yet doesn’t even discuss class in this culture struggle analysis, as if class does not exist.

    It’s an article of faith on the right, including the alt-right, that there’s no such thing as class and that anyone who thinks class is an issue is a dirty stinking commie.

    One of the many reasons the right, including the alt-right, is entirely useless.

    • Replies: @Smith
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  116. Smith says:
    @dfordoom

    That’s real funny considering demographics is the ONLY worthwhile question.

    Culture, economy, ideologies all stems from demographics.

    The left forget that, which is why the left is always ruled by a rightist at the end of the days.

    • Replies: @Agathoklis, @dfordoom
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  117. @Hail

    Proto Indo Europeans were already in Europe, Einstein. Ukraine and the Pontic Caspian steppe is in Europe, if you didn’t know.

    Talking about Europe with regards to Indo-Europeans is nonsense anyway, the vast majority of Indo Europeans migrated east in to Asia from Corded Ware and their “partial descendants” number over 1.5 billion.

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  118. @Hail

    Cool calculations, but not atypical imo, you’d get similar order of magnitude leaps with Bantus, Neo-Mongoloids, etc.

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  119. wise says:

    That all suspect, but not dareth spoken are words that point to a predator drone and or missile hitting the pentagon back on 09/11/2001.

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  120. J says: • Website
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Classical Greece was severely depopulated after Alexander’s conquests in the East.

    Any Greek could get a good living in Egypt and other successor states by teaching Greek language and culture, or entering the local bureaucracies. Greece was emptied and its cities became insignificant villages. It is also probable that they underwent the first demographic transition in history.

    • Replies: @Agathoklis
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  121. @Malenfant

    A world of 100 billion Russians is at least conceivable.

    They can barely support themselves right now.

    A lot of wishful thinking in this piece. “Decline in Islamic fertility”? Please.

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  122. the Irish have an even more extreme and unique anti-record: There are fewer of them today (~6.6M in all Ireland) than in 1840 (8.5M)! I wonder what they did to anger God so.

    God`s wrath is clearly restricted to Irish who remained in Ireland.

    The Irish diaspora is of quite astonishing size – about the biggest ratio in the world if you compare the number (people abroad) divided by (people in the home country).

    Between 10 and 20 to 1?

    Even if you go no further than England, Scotland or Wales, I would have thought they make up at least 20% of the white population there on a proportional measurement. (E.g my good self, 3/8ths Irish at the great-grand parental level.)

    Wikipedia says there are about 33 million Irish Americans.

    The Irish saved British demography.

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  123. Besides a few commentators here that have given a few statements about the true nature of low birthrates or low “fertility”, almost no one here seems to be serious about solving the low birthrate problem.

    The solution is really very simple in concept, but a bit harder to execute:

    Abolish Feminism. Abolish women’s rights. Abolish women’s education, right to work, right to vote and etc.

    The breeder population groups like Russians of Arkhangelsk, Russian Old Believers, Kosovo Serbs, Mormons, Amish, Haredi and etc all have in common the fact that their women are behaving as they are naturally supposed to; by giving birth and raising many kids. That is, they’re not getting “educated” or going to work at modern corporate jobs in large numbers (if at all).

    By chance or randomness, all those groups have ended up in circumstances where despite the many obstacles placed by “modernity”, and other unnatural dynamics, on women to interact with men how they’re naturally supposed to and to do what they’re supposed to.

    Of course, there are other circumstances such as devastating wars, famines, droughts and etc that can negatively affect birth rates, although in the modern world it is by far Feminism and women’s rights.

    I suspect though, since I’ve seen many white knights (some cucks as well, idk) going on about how things like porn, and the behavior of men are to blame for low birthrates, that you’ll start criticizing me. All I’ll say in advance is that I won’t even bother responding and that you guys need to learn the truth about the nature of women …

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  124. @J

    Here we go again. The old canard.

    Genetic origins of the Minoans and Mycenaeans

    https://www.nature.com/articles/nature23310

    “Modern Greeks resemble the Mycenaeans, but with some additional dilution of the Early Neolithic ancestry. Our results support the idea of continuity but not isolation in the history of populations of the Aegean, before and after the time of its earliest civilizations.”

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  125. @Marshall Lentini

    Very weird takes. Care to substantiate either one of them?

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  126. LondonBob says:
    @RadicalCenter

    I said the surge in STDs is a homosexual problem, not that STDs are only a homosexual problem.

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  127. @Smith

    Not necessarily but it is important in the age of mass democracy and economism. Everything stems from individual and collective power and self-preservation.

    From Macht und Entscheidung (Power and Decision) by Panagiotis Kondylis:

    “Drawing from anthropology, philosophy, sociology and history, concepts such as value, value-freedom and nihilism are explored. It is claimed that the infinite variety of human perceptions, beliefs, ideologies, i.e. world-views, are nothing more than an effort to give personal interests a normative form and an objective character, deriving from a “decision” on what means should be used, who should be a friend and who a foe, in the big “Hobbesian” struggle for what is the most primitive and common goal of all humans – self-preservation. Therefore, personal and/or group world-views and ideologies in general are used as a weapon in everyday struggle for the purpose of power claims and self-preservation. Social and historical being and becoming consist of transitory existences – regardless of whether they invoke Reason and ethics or not – seeking power (in any one or more of its countless forms). That is how Nature’s (and society’s) creatures are, and they cannot do otherwise.”

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  128. @Colin Wright

    I have often thought along similar lines.

    Germany obviously failed at becoming world hegemon, as was its maximalist aim (though its attempts were respectable).

    But it pretty much succeeded if one views it as a resumption of the antediluvian race war between Germandom and Slavdom.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright, @Mr. XYZ
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  129. @TheTotallyAnonymous

    …going on about how things like porn, and the behavior of men are to blame for low birthrates…

    A profoundly stupid comment. ‘Feminism’ and “women’s rights” were invented by men, precisely to make porn (and commitment-free sex) possible.

    So yes, men are to blame.

    You’re not really stupid enough to think that women up and ‘liberated’ themselves out of their own femininity, are you?

    • Replies: @TheTotallyAnonymous
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  130. @Marshall Lentini

    A world of 100 billion Russians is at least conceivable.

    They can barely support themselves right now.

    Anatoly is looking rather thin of late.

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    Yandex Money via Yasobe (for ruble accounts)

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
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  131. @Pericles

    White British and white Americans – indeed white Europeans – have steeply falling fertility, and it’s not because they prefer to enjoy a country with more space – it’s because they’re not optimistic about the future.

    This isn’t helped (to put it mildly) by a media pushing the idea that the world is doomed and you should stop breeding to save the planet, but there’s also advertising (standard family is now black male/white female), TV and film,education with its emphasis on white sin (slavery, holocaust, Sacco and Vanzetti, lynching – truly a broad historical education) – and above all, the on the ground reality of stagnant or falling wages, massively increased house prices, and mass immigration by people you don’t really want to bring kids up among, indeed you don’t want to live among them yourself, but can’t afford to move away from. Oh, and the push for confused young men and women to declare themselves homosexual, if not transgender.

    Here’s what one British supermarket is pushing.

    https://www.about.sainsburys.co.uk/making-a-difference/our-values/our-stories/2017/sainsburys-celebrates-black-history-month

    https://www.about.sainsburys.co.uk/making-a-difference/our-values/our-stories/2017/splashing-orange-into-the-rainbow-of-pride

    https://www.about.sainsburys.co.uk/making-a-difference/our-values/our-stories/2017/taking-pride-in-diversity

    “Allies are vital to making more colleagues aware of LGBT issues. In recent years, we have forged a productive mentoring relationship with the global consultancy company Accenture, which is helping to drive change within our business.”

    Nothing says diversity like Arthur Andersen.

    UK real median male wages have fallen over the last 20 years, real house prices up 2.5 times. Real GDP increased, but its not reflected in wages.

    The symptoms of whites are an attenuated form of what we’ve seen among Native Americans, Aborigines, First Nations Canadians – which raises an interesting question – what are the demographics of those groups? Have they managed to combine drug and alcohol abuse and general dysfunction with decent fertility levels?

    • Replies: @bomag, @Philip Owen
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  132. bomag says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    Light sabers, LOL.

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  133. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Smith

    That’s real funny considering demographics is the ONLY worthwhile question.

    Demographics is certainly not the only worthwhile question. A much bigger issue is cultural disintegration. At this point in time, looking at western Europe or the US, it wouldn’t make the slightest difference if you could transform such places into white ethnostates. You’d still have corrupt, degenerate, decadent, hedonistic doomed societies. The damage that has been done to those societies has been overwhelmingly done by white people. We trashed our own societies. And then we decided to finish the job by refusing to breed.

    • Replies: @bomag, @Smith, @neutral
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  134. bomag says:
    @YetAnotherAnon

    Have they [Native Americans] managed to combine drug and alcohol abuse and general dysfunction with decent fertility levels?

    From what I see: yes; reservations are a robust welfare state coupled with a culture that encourages child-bearing. Not much real economic activity around here, mainly gov’t make-work jobs and handouts, but they’re happy to be a leisure class.

    Not too encouraging, as there is the usual dysgenics going on: the most capable go off and join the childless harems in our urban centers, leaving the less thrilling prospects to propagate the next generation.

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  135. Malema says:
    @Curious

    @ Colin Wright
    What a load of Islamophobic claptrap.
    American Zio-Christians are ethnofascists, so are most Europeans

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  136. The opening graphic/painting is……Graphic.

    As graphic as a Citizens Comprehensive Land Use Plan substantial deviation proposal from open rural/ agriculture to residential/ retail notice posted on an idyllic US landscape.

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  137. songbird says:
    @TheTotallyAnonymous

    Abolish Feminism. Abolish women’s rights. Abolish women’s education, right to work, right to vote

    Isn’t it better if the blue-haired feminists don’t reproduce?

    • Replies: @TheTotallyAnonymous
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  138. @Willem

    A Marxist in this day and age. How strange.

    Counterinsurgency

    • Agree: Johnny Walker Read
    • Replies: @dfordoom
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  139. AP says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    Shouldn’t you include Crimea (officially Russian) and the separatist-controlled Donbass (de facto Russian) in your calculations, though? They’d give Russia a slight boost right now–albeit one that probably isn’t that large.

    Sure. However the purpose of such comparisons is to imply that Ukraine has a much weaker position vis a vis Russia due to the change in population ratios. But whether or not Crimea is in Russia, this doesn’t change. It was not an advantage for Ukraine to have all of those Russians in its borders. It was, on the contrary, a disadvantage – a lot of those Russians were high ranking military officers or government officials, who would probably not side with Ukraine in case of conflict with Russia. So again, the fact that Ukraine had about 33% of Russia’s population in 1991, vs. ~24% in 2019 is much less meaningful than the fact that ethnic Ukrainians in the Ukrainian state were 25% of Russia’s population in 1991 vs. 22% today.

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  140. Mr. Hack says:
    @songbird

    I’ve always meant to (but never have) obtained a copy of a popular Ukrainian TV series about the life of Roxalana. It was quite popular about 15 years ago. I’ve read mixed reviews, but from what I’ve seen (snippets here and there) it looked kind of interesting?…

    • Replies: @songbird
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  141. bomag says:
    @dfordoom

    You’d still have corrupt, degenerate, decadent, hedonistic doomed societies. The damage that has been done to those societies has been overwhelmingly done by white people.

    Okay, but even on fumes it is more attractive than quite a bit of the world.

    Modern transportation and population pressure has these societies slated for swamping by newcomers, which could well negate the possibility of a reboot after a couple of generations of stagnation.

    • Replies: @dfordoom
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  142. @anonymous coward

    A profoundly stupid comment. ‘Feminism’ and “women’s rights” were invented by men, precisely to make porn (and commitment-free sex) possible.

    Feminism, women’s rights and porn were all invented by people that come from a certain tribe called J**s (more creative than doing triple brackets signalling, imo). You should take the time to research it instead of insulting me.

    You’re not really stupid enough to think that women up and ‘liberated’ themselves out of their own femininity, are you?

    No.

    So yes, men are to blame.

    Again, J***sh men …

    • Replies: @annamaria, @AP
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  143. @songbird

    Isn’t it better if the blue-haired feminists don’t reproduce?

    Have to disagree even though I understand your attitude.

    The current state of affairs is untenable. By focusing on “blue-haired feminists”, you’ve lost sight of the most important issue of declining birthrates. Those women are only “blue-haired feminists” as a product of social conditioning, politics, government enacted laws and etc …

    Those women could easily be something else besides “blue-haired feminists” in the right circumstances.

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  144. songbird says:
    @Mr. Hack

    I’ve heard there’s a Turkish soap somewhat centered around her. I’d never watch a Turkish soap, but it would be an interesting story if it were given a high-brow treatment, with a very limited episode count.

    Not to mention, some ruthless courtly intrigue between women would be a good antidote to all the Mary Sue stuff that is being pushed nowadays.

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  145. @TheTotallyAnonymous

    The solution is really very simple in concept, but a bit harder to execute:

    Abolish Feminism. Abolish women’s rights. Abolish women’s education, right to work, right to vote and etc.

    OK, let’s talk about that [0]. I’ve seen a few cases where something like that was attempted, and been related to at least one woman who tried it. This didn’t work out well — result was death, sterility, insanity, from resentment on the part of the women involved. The one woman who actively pursued life outside feminism seems to be doing pretty well, but her life is in its early stages.

    We can also consider the true nature of women (not that anybody really knows what it is, even the women involved. Part of women’s nature appears to be resistance to description.).

    Source background: I’ve followed feminism since the 1960s in real time, read enough of the second wave source books to understand some of the appeal (roughly, “you’ll drive a better bargain with men if you aren’t utterly dependent, and have more social prestige also”), read some of the third wave material and have enough background to understand something of the the appeal there (“the second wave ‘better bargain’ doesn’t work, so it’s time to go full Medea [1] or to play Artemis the Huntress [2]”), also.

    So the way things work now is that men [3] (not all men, but men) call the shots for feminists, the West has seen marriage and family formation destabilized for the past, oh, 60 years or so, and the women are convinced that it is the fault of individual men and have retreated into being difficult or by outright divorcing (and siccing the cops on) the men in their lives.
    The men, bluntly, are cracking under the strain [4]. They can’t even support themselves, and it turns out that women won’t marry men who have a worse job than they do, and tend not to psychologically support the men they marry. (Rosie appears to be an exception.) Add this to women divorcing men who have a better job than they do if the man works hard enough to neglect them, and there isn’t a winning choice for the men or women, unless you count promiscuity (which is dangerous and only possible for women until age, maybe, 35).
    On top of this, women support the laws that are making life difficult for them, apparently under the impression that they are strengthening their hand inside marriage. I well remember the 1950s, back when people realized that _work was done only because it was necessary_ [5], and wasn’t a fashion accessory or a recreation. I’ve had several relatives die from their work, and they didn’t have fun doing it.

    Fact of the matter is that men can’t do all that much about the current situation. Women have had their basic natures [6] cruelly exploited, told that their problems could be solved by doing things that made the problem worse [7]. Right now, the men are following, of necessity, the HAL strategy from _2001_: “I would recommend that we put the unit back in operation, and let it fail. It should then be a simple matter to track down the cause.” This would indeed follow your suggested course of action, but is clearly a very risky strategy (you remember that the entire crew save one was killed in _2001_). The men (all of them, worldwide) are just as cracked as HAL was in _2001_ [7a]. However, it’s not only all that’s available, it seems to be unavoidable (unless, of course, Trump survives, wins, and pulls off a near miracle [8]).
    The cities are nearly at the end of their lifetime, and when they go, we are left with a distributed production economy and a whole lot of city dwellers with no place to go. They just might descend on the countryside in enough strength to make the distributed economy impossible. Just taking down the electrical grid and destroying a few generators / transformers would make a distributed national scale economy impossible. Even if this did not happen, simple failure of the US Dollar based global trading network would lead to the same result. As I’ve pointed out, the global trading network would then, most likely, fail in a cascade of regional warfare.

    Frankly, I don’t like the “let it fail” strategy, and any suggestions for avoiding the situation would be welcome. Remember, Ron Unz has made a site that has considerable readership, more than _National Review_, so ideas presented here could spread.

    Any thoughts?

    Counterinsurgency

    [MORE]
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  146. Emslander says:

    Hitler had a very interesting observation in Mein Kampf regarding the difference in population growth between Germany and France. He said that the French had made it a national policy to reduce births, in order to prevent population growth that might overburden resources. Germans had not.

    He opined that the French had grown significantly weaker and Germany significantly stronger, because unnatural restraints on population reduce the competition for scarce resources. Natural restraints on population make a nation stronger by increasing competition for the resources that sustain life. Every person becomes stronger in the struggle to survive and prosper.

    He, therefore, was opposed to abortion and contraception as national policies. His solution to an unsupportable population, if there should ever be one, was lebensraum.

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  147. Anatman says:

    So-called “empowering” women does nothing for the overall birthrate; all it does is front-load the births. I.e., the women who were going to have children anyway are having them earlier. In actuality, women’s lib has been a disaster across all measures for Western society but most especially in terms of TFR:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-global-fertility-crash/

    • Replies: @Che Guava
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  148. @AP

    In a straight up military confrontation? Sure, that’s more significant.

    In terms of economic heft? Quite the opposite. And economic heft does carry over somewhat into hard power. (However, as you probably correctly argue, a more ethnically consolidated Ukraine may be expected to be more economically successful, canceling out the absolute population loss).

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  149. @RadicalCenter

    Africa’s main hazard would be a breakdown in global trade. Should that happen, the current African population would find itself standing between China and the raw materials that China’s industrial economy needs. Not a safe place to stand.

    Counterinsurgency

    • Replies: @zogborg
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  150. My guesstimate is that the planet can support ~100 billion people.

    With Whites extinct who will feed them?

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  151. Che Guava says:
    @Anatman

    Any fool knows that it was the intention.

    A few major second-wave feminist writers made some sense at times.

    The Jewish coterie (the happilly married Betty Friedan, of course to a fellow Jew, the grossly obese lesbian orc Bela Abzug whose real name I forget. Steinem, , 90% another + ugly jewish women, were the main claimers of bullshit, and very much dominant. In fact, it was only them and their onther conpirators. .

    • Replies: @Anatman
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  152. lauris71 says:
    @Erik Sieven

    Breeder groups are inherently unstable because their behavior is culturally motivated. There is little reason to believe that most Amish, Mormon or Haredi women have genetic disposition to have more children than their peer populations on average. Change their society/environment radically and they will stop breeding – just like most of the traditional societies did with urbanization. Mormons are probably the most resilient group, but I cannot imagine how either Amish or Haredis can keep the functioning, once they become the absolute majority in their countries and have to support the (ultra-complex) modern state structures themselves.
    What ultimately changes the demographic trend upwards is natural selection among “normal” people, picking out the genotypes that increase the desire to have many children in modern urban environment.

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  153. @lauris71

    The rate of retention amongst the Amish community has risen from something like 70% a century ago to almost 95% today. This suggests that what one might call the “Amish quotient” has been getting selected for, as Greg Cochran has argued. Pro-natalism genes are likely part of that.

    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson, @dfordoom
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  154. @Anatoly Karlin

    There may be another factor involved.

    A century ago mainstream society was much more similar to Amish society than it is today.

    Thus the shock of abandoning the Amish community is much greater now.

    • Agree: Blinky Bill
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  155. zogborg says:

    Cut off all aid to Africa and ban all immigration from Africa.

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  156. songbird says:
    @lauris71

    The Amish will never become the majority. They are pacifistic technophobes. How much land is really open to Amish farming methods? And at a price conducive to buying? How would they do in South Africa? Or farming the abandoned lots in Detroit?

    • Replies: @dfordoom
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  157. zogborg says:
    @Counterinsurgency

    I’m generally anti-China, but I would be grateful if China could solve the African problem once and for all. The entire world will be swamped with these subhuman primates if Africa is not successfully neutralized.

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  158. @Anatoly Karlin

    ‘But it pretty much succeeded if one views it as a resumption of the antediluvian race war between Germandom and Slavdom.’

    ? Germans wound up eliminated from East Prussia and Silesia, and no longer present as a major group in the Baltic States, Romania, Moldova, the Western Ukraine, Poland, Hungary, and wherever the Yugoslavian Banat is now. Moreover, in at least Poland, East Prussia, Silesia, and the Banat they were replaced by Slavs.

    I’d say it rolled the Drang nach Osten back a good seven hundred years. I doubt if the German people could survive another such ‘success.’

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
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  159. Malenfant says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    India is still above replacement overall, whereas China has been below-replacement for nearly 30 years. In no time at all, India shall be the most populous country on Earth, if it isn’t already. And India is far more likely than Europe or China to have breeder populations — indeed, they already do. In some states, TFR is around or over 3.0, and many Indian Muslims, like Muslim minorities elsewhere, seem to view reproduction as a strategic tool of conquest, to the consternation of the Hindu majority. (And perhaps, in a feedback effect somewhat reminiscent of Israel, this provokes those Hindus into having more children themselves.) Thus fertility in certain Indian communities may never fall below replacement. Other Indian communities, in stark contrast, are already far below replacement — it is said that the Jains have a TFR of just 1.2.

    That the future will have a higher relative proportion of Indians is all but certain.

    • Replies: @Really No Shit
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  160. dfordoom says: • Website
    @bomag

    You’d still have corrupt, degenerate, decadent, hedonistic doomed societies. The damage that has been done to those societies has been overwhelmingly done by white people.

    Okay, but even on fumes it is more attractive than quite a bit of the world.

    Not for much longer. The decadence seems to have built an unstoppable momentum. Not to mention the momentum towards soft totalitarianism. Both of which are entirely unconnected with demographics.

    And it’s increasingly less attractive than quite a bit of the world.

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  161. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Anatoly Karlin

    The rate of retention amongst the Amish community has risen from something like 70% a century ago to almost 95% today. This suggests that what one might call the “Amish quotient” has been getting selected for, as Greg Cochran has argued. Pro-natalism genes are likely part of that.

    It’s also possible that life outside the Amish community has become a lot less attractive to kids brought up with a strong religious faith.

    A century ago, or even say 60 years ago, the outside world was less hostile to people with a religious worldview. And there was a lot less degeneracy in the outside world. The outside world could be seen as offering more freedom without the necessity of hiding one’s religious beliefs or wallowing in the gutter. And the outside world would have seemed less culturally alien to someone raised as an Amish. OK, there were cars and radios and gramophones but the outside world didn’t offer unlimited porn, child drag queens, gay bathhouses, the celebration of slut culture and angry blue-haired lesbians.

    For every genetic explanation there’s an equally convincing cultural explanation.

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  162. @Thorfinnsson

    Rumspringa ain’t what it use to be.

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  163. @songbird

    Belize has about 12,000 Old Order Mennonites. I believe they came in the mid 20th century, after cheap arable land. They do quite well down there, by my brother’s account (he lived there for a couple years). They account for much of Belize’s industrial food system. Seems like they do quite well and get along just fine with the native Maya, etc.

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  164. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Counterinsurgency

    A Marxist in this day and age. How strange.

    You can accept some elements of Marxist analysis as useful and valuable without having to accept the Marxist solutions. You don’t have to be a Marxist to realise that class is crucial and that we’re in the middle of a class war.

    • Replies: @Counterinsurgency
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  165. @Willem

    since humans are the same everywhere, it does not really matter which population of a certain country grows faster than another

    Surely You’re Joking, Mr. Willem!

    • Agree: Bardon Kaldian
    • Replies: @Willem
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  166. dfordoom says: • Website
    @songbird

    The Amish will never become the majority. They are pacifistic technophobes. How much land is really open to Amish farming methods? And at a price conducive to buying? How would they do in South Africa? Or farming the abandoned lots in Detroit?

    Another point to consider is that the Amish population is still small enough to be disregarded as a threat by mainstream society, by the government and by the media. What are they, 0.1% of the US population? They’re still so few that they arouse little hostility.

    What happens when they reach 1% of the population? Or 2%? Or 5%? Will we start hearing about the existential threat posed by the Amish? Will we be told that the Amish are about to go all Handmaid’s Tale on the rest of the population? At the very least they’re likely to attract a lot more hostility from SJWs.

    What will happen when they make up a significant share of the population in states like Pennsylvania? Will there be demands that sanctions be imposed on Pennsylvania?

    The Amish are going to run into really major problems long long before they’re anywhere near to being a majority.

    • Replies: @songbird
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  167. Skeptikal says:

    David Fischer Hackett.

    It’s David Hackett Fischer.

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  168. @Charon

    >Pretty much anywhere I go in this land of ours, I can count on white people being friendly, or at the very least civil. Unfortunately I’m unable to maintain a similar expectation with any other ‘ethnicity’. I’d say that’s meaningful.

    It used to be accepted as a truism and self-evident that America was a melting pot that homogenized the many strands of white immigrant ethnicities and came up with a new culture which is immediately recognizable. Check out a bunch of American girl tourists abroad; their speech and gait is unmistakable: charming, naive and VERY LOUD compared to say the French that quiet repressed people.

    I suspect that the American melting pot is still operative and now includes Asians like Koreans and Chinese and many Hispanics. I get that impression partly by real world experience and partly by Asians and Hispanics on the TV speaking acentless American English which is the acid test of nationality.

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  169. Kurt_5 says:

    According to the 1900 population chart, South Africa only had a population of 1.4 million in 1900, but the population today is somewhere around 55 million. I wonder what the white % of the population was in 1900? The black population exploded as a result of the improved medical care that the whites brought, yet they were rewarded with a massive explosion in black crime and have had the country stolen from them…

    • Replies: @neutral
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  170. songbird says:
    @dfordoom

    If the Amish were a large enough group, they would probably be called Nazis.

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  171. Dmitry says:
    @songbird

    Overstay a visa, or try to enter Europe illegally and spend a winter in Vorkuta

    It’s a very sensible plan.

    Vorkuta is probably one of the only places in Europe (technically is just inside Europe!) which they will not welcome going, while they would be welcomed by the local population.

    In Soviet times, Vorkuta was a city of 115,000 people. While today, there are only around 70,000 inhabitants in the city.

    These cities whose “golden age” was in the Soviet Union, and today they are heavily declining.
    Young people are leaving these cities, and the old people are dying and not being replaced.

    As a result of the falling population of the city, there is now quite a high proportion of empty buildings there, where the immigrants can live (they just need to fix the roof – and welcome to paradise!).

    Maybe also an advertising campaign in Africa of “Welcome to Europe” – with videos of Vorkuta, to “attract” them.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTRzurfU8Fs

    • Agree: songbird
    • Replies: @Dmitry
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  172. Willem says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    People are happy when kids are born in the family, feel sorrow when a loved-one dies, are troubled by all sorts of diseases, are able to feel pleasure and pain, are more likely to cope when not under stress, are terribly naive (but that is not their fault), and always talk about the same thing when the ice needs to be broken: their kids and football.

    People are also able to feel empathy towards one another, like to work together, can think through genius ideas, and they are also able to make mistakes. A mistake people can make is to think in their own interest. Not that there is much wrong with thinking about your own interest (as ethical egoists can tell you), but what’s wrong is that people often think that they serve their own interest by being smart or opportunistic, while in reality they serve someone else his interest or they serve no interest at all. Admitting mistakes is also something that people find difficult, there is always an issue of pride, and our society seems more willing to punish mistakes, instead of rewarding someone who admitted that he made a mistake. But most of that is just predjudice: people are in general kind and forgiving. It’s only in places like politics and journalism that mistakes are equal to sin. But journalists and politicians only count for 0.1% for the total population, and are to be pitied for the situation they are in. E.g., never to be able to apologize for having created destruction by being part (or having created) terrible lies.

    If you go 1mm under the skin (as an anatomist) you will not see a difference between men or women. And as said, and eloborated in this comment, I don’t even see a difference when I just look at people.

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  173. Dmitry says:
    @Dmitry

    around 70,000 inhabitants in the city

    Actually, the later figures are only 58,000 people now (although that does not include neighbouring towns like Vorgashor which has soldiers there on a military base – the whole metropolis now has only 80,000). There is such a decline of population since 2010 (when Vorkuta had 70,000).

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  174. Dmitry says:
    @Finnishdude

    The highest fertility population in both Israel and the world, are the Israeli Bedouin Arabs. There fertility rate is reported as above 8.

    Their population was only 11,000 in the 1950s, and now they have a population of hundreds of thousands.

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  175. JMcG says:
    @songbird

    They’re not pacifists when deer season comes around. I don’t think I’ve ever failed to see an Amish guy fail to empty his magazine when shooting at a deer.

    • Replies: @songbird
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  176. Gary5775 says:
    @Willem

    @Willem

    Are you serious? As a white man, I certainly do see the difference between other races and myself. Blacks certainly look at whites, Asians, and other and see differences as well . Anyone who denies this is lying to themselves…

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  177. @Willem

    And as said, and eloborated in this comment, I don’t even see a difference when I just look at people.

    So when you need to pay your bill at a restaurant, you just randomly hand cash to the nearest available homo sapien blob. Good to know – and as it is all the same, can you please provide your name and credit card so that I, as another undifferentiated homo sapien blob, can get access to your financial resources?

    Thanks.

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  178. HEREDOT says:
    @Curious

    I agree, a country whose demography is ruined. ominous days await them

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  179. Jake says:

    “9) So far as I can tell, the Latvians, Estonians, and Ashkenazi Jews are the only peoples with fewer people today than in 1914. It is ironic that they played the most disproportionate roles (per capita) in cementing Bolshevism in Russia. God must really hate commies.”

    The international language of Ashkenazi Jews was Yiddish: German for Jews, or if you prefer, slightly Judaized German. Culturally, Ashkenazi Jews were preponderantly Germanic.

    Today, the international language of Ashkenazi Jews is English and culturally they are preponderantly Anglo-Saxon. Of course, Anglo-Saxon is Germanic linguistically and culturally. So Jews still choose to be linguistically and culturally Germanic.

    Both Estonia and Latvia were strongly influenced by German language and, especially, culture, including Lutheranism and the forms of Masonry favored by German speakers.

    If we line up all the above, what meanings should shout out to us?

    • Replies: @Skeptikal
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  180. Dmitry says:
    @The Scalpel

    Even in the 1980s, however, it would not be so bad. Imagine all these apartments when they are new and shiny in the 1960-70s (not decaying like now), and full of young families, with everyone working in local industry. It would have been “cozy”.

    Here is a drone over some nearby villages – these places are totally abandoned (the final result of depopulation before nature starts climbing over).

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  181. @Colin Wright

    (1) Territory has ceased to play the defining role it played in earlier centuries.

    (2) What matters is the gap between potential c.1914 and present reality. “Normal” Russia would have had twice as many people in its core territories, and 3x with a largely Russified Ukraine and Belarus (not even counting Balts, Caucasus, C. Asia). Its GDP will have been many times higher – at least as high as that of the US (assuming convergence to, say, France’s per capita level). Sure, the Germans have been definitively driven out of Eastern Europe, but their population and GDP is only perhaps 20% lower than it would have otherwise been.

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  182. Skeptikal says:
    @prime noticer

    Are there any data on where these people are going?

    • Replies: @Jimi
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  183. Skeptikal says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    19.8 million people in NYC metropolitan area. Give or take. New York remains the largest metropolitan area in the country — by far — according to the latest Census Bureau population estimates released Thursday

    The Northeast megalopolis (also Boston–Washington corridor or Bos-Wash corridor) is the most populous megalopolis in the United States with over 50 million residents and the most heavily urbanized agglomeration of the United States.

    Based on estimates taken in 2017, the states along the East Coast have a total population of over 118 million inhabitants. This region is home to more than one-third of the nation’s total population. It is also the most populated coastal region in the country.

    by contrast,
    Los Angeles/Metro population
    13,131,431

    Southern California/Population
    24.12 million

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  184. Emslander says:
    @lauris71

    The Amish way of life appears more and more appealing to young people in this wasteland. The American agricultural system is dependent upon governments. The Amish system of farming supports its participants in addition to multiples of consumers who are not participants.

    It seemed to me for a while that the Unz commenters were thinking beyond the failed modernism. It’s becoming clear that commenters here aren’t quite as aware as they pretend to be. Modern urbanism is bankrupt. Most cities will be deserted within the lifetime of the next generation. The Amish know how to live in the dystopian future. For them there will be nothing dystopian about it.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Jake
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  185. Skeptikal says:
    @Jake

    “Culturally, Ashkenazi Jews were preponderantly Germanic.”

    Really?
    I thought Ashkenazim included Polish, Russian, another Eastern European Jews.
    Can this be called “Germanic”?

    • Replies: @Jake
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  186. songbird says:
    @JMcG

    I don’t think I’ve ever failed to see an Amish guy fail to empty his magazine

    I’m amazed that they don’t use musket balls.

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  187. @Emslander

    The Amish know how to live in the dystopian future. For them there will be nothing dystopian about it.

    Its not that realistic to be hardcore pacifists in a dystopian future. For better or worse, I think there’s a strong argument that the Amish can only exist due to modern society – although their agricultural skills are doubtlessly more valuable in a non-industrial society.

    I think this analysis holds even if, say, the laws of physics change and all manmade electrical devices cease to function. The balance of equilibrium would still quite favor warlordism, etc.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @dfordoom, @AP
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  188. Jake says:
    @Skeptikal

    So you think all those Jews in Poland, for example, spoke Polish rather than Yiddish? If so, you are wrong.

    • Replies: @Skeptikal
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  189. Anatman says:
    @Che Guava

    Um, no.

    It’s quite simply really. Do you believe women should have the right to vote, yes or no? If yes, you are a feminist. If no, congratulations, you have an IQ above 80 or at least are substantially resistant to idealistic egalitarian humanistic claptrap.

    No one group who aren’t net taxpayers should have the right to vote. Otherwise you get mob rule, begets parasitism, and parasitism is unsustainable. Take your solipsistic Boomer logic elsewhere.

    • Replies: @Che Guava
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  190. SafeNow says:

    That is a fascinating demographic statistic that Bangladesh has more people than Russia. I had no idea. But here is a follow-up statistic:

    Number of titled chess players:

    Bangladesh 47
    Russia 2632

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  191. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    (1) Territory has ceased to play the defining role it played in earlier centuries.

    The amount of territory that one has actually does have value in regards to things such as carrying capacity. More territory would presumably mean a larger carrying capacity and thus an ability to sustain a much larger population. This is why the US’s historical territorial expansion has been so beneficial to it. Theoretically speaking, as many as 100 million people could fit into the Southwestern US (including Texas, of course).

    (2) What matters is the gap between potential c.1914 and present reality. “Normal” Russia would have had twice as many people in its core territories, and 3x with a largely Russified Ukraine and Belarus (not even counting Balts, Caucasus, C. Asia). Its GDP will have been many times higher – at least as high as that of the US (assuming convergence to, say, France’s per capita level). Sure, the Germans have been definitively driven out of Eastern Europe, but their population and GDP is only perhaps 20% lower than it would have otherwise been.

    At least Russia kept most of its 1914 territory up to the present-day, though. This should eventually allow Russia to achieve a very high population once its “breeders” will become a sufficiently large part of its population. Compare that with Germany where their “breeders” don’t have anywhere near as much room/space for massive population growth.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
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  192. I’m not convinced the world has a population of 7 billion, or China 1.3 billion, or India’s 1.7 billions, or Africa’s billions. It’s all suspect to me. Maybe someone with a more fertile mind than I can cite what the motive(s) can be, for those in position to say, declare such numbers as facts.
    My instinct tells me to look at the UN, and their agenda 21, and subsequent agendas. To scare everyone with: the world is over populated , serves the globalists. Does it not?
    Yet, we can fly over every continent, and for hours and see nothing but square miles of beautiful unpopulated areas. It just doesn’t add up.

    • LOL: Anatoly Karlin
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  193. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Yes, one can certainly say that the current situation in Europe is rather favorable for Germany–with the collapse of the Soviet Union essentially restoring Germany’s Brest-Litovsk sphere of influence (albeit in a much milder form) in Eastern Europe. Germany was able to inflict severe demographic devastation to Russia, but also suffered a relatively heavy cost for this itself (in 1950, there were only 77 German men for every 100 German women aged 25-49; the comparable figure for the Russian SFSR was 62 men for every 100 women aged 25-49–with Ukraine being at 65 men and Belarus being at 69 men for every 100 women in this age range in 1950).

    Ultimately, though, I’m not sure that things are going to be too favorable for Germany. After all, it seems eager to import a lot of Third Worlders while having low native birth rates and very possibly dysgenic fertility as well. Plus, its population has much less room to expand than, say, Russia’s or even France’s population. Theoretically high-fertility Germans could eventually move to greener pastures, but then Germany is going to end up losing them.

    • Replies: @Daniel.I
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  194. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Colin Wright

    This helps to explain the calculation of the Wilhelmine German General Staff that if war with Russia was delayed past 1916, it would be unwinnable.

    Technically speaking, were Germany to acquire Britain as an ally after 1916, the calculations in regards to this could have somewhat been changed. Were Germany to also acquire the US as an ally after 1916, the calculations in regards to this would have definitely been changed–assuming that Germany would have been able to avoid total collapse before massive numbers of British and American troops could actually get there, of course.

    Given the German role in reintroducing Bolshevism into Russia, and of course their invasion of 1941-43, you could even say that the Germans did manage to defeat the Russian menace.

    Yep, certainly.

    The difficulty was of course that they lost the wars themselves as well.

    Yeah, the Germans themselves certainly paid a very heavy price for crippling Russia in terms of their own lives and territory. Sure, they hurt Russia much more than they hurt themselves, but at least Russia still has a lot of territory for their population to expand into once its “breeders” will become a sufficiently large part of its population. Germany, on the other hand, doesn’t. This is actually a problem that Germany experienced in the 19th and 20th centuries–as in, the amount of space that it had wasn’t that large even in 1914 and short of massive ethnic cleansing, there simply wasn’t a lot of available empty space for Germany to expand into like there was for the 19th century United States of America. Germany’s best bet had it won World War I would have been to try creating a Mitteleuropa-style union with its newly independent Eastern European satellite states. That way Germans could have had a lot of additional space to settle without Germany losing these Germans. Of course, such a Mitteleuropa-style union would have probably only worked in the long(er)-run had the Slavs living there had an equal say in running this union–something that might have been anathema to Slavophobic German nationalists!

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  195. Jake says:
    @Emslander

    A number of commenters here, like elsewhere, are paid by the likes of the SPLC or ADL, etc.

    The Amish are no threat to the freaks and monsters in charge of Globalism and so are safely ignored.

    • Replies: @Emslander
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  196. @dfordoom

    You can accept some elements of Marxist analysis as useful and valuable without having to accept the Marxist solutions. You don’t have to be a Marxist to realize that class is crucial and that we’re in the middle of a class war.

    Well, as you can see by looking at what I’ve written, I tend to think in terms of sociological regions and intrusive groups, but more region than groups. To me, the classes are functional parts of groups. It’s certainly true that the rich are not functional in the contemporary West, and also that they are one of the groups responsible for the impoverishment of the Western non-rich, but it is also true that the same things could be said about quite a few groups. For a very large example, the educational / intellectual scene is not run by the rich –I tend to believe that the largest influence is from the US region settled from New Englander during the 1800s. New England always did fund higher education and take it more seriously than the rest of the US.
    One of my themes is that a coalition between the New England area and the New York City area (descendant of a Dutch trading post and still interested mostly in profitable trade) has been responsible for immigration since the AD 1840s, and for the Civil War, and that what is happening now is very similar to what happened then. Class is important, and business people / religious fanatics clearly direct much of what is happening, but both are acting in accordance with what their regions have done in the past. The Deep South, which also has religious people and business people, does not favor de-industrialization and high immigration. Niether does Texas.

    For a popularization of the region hypothesis, you might look at Woodward, _American Nations_, http://www.colinwoodard.com/americannations.html

    Counterinsurgency

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  197. @Willem

    Move to any ethnic urban area, live there for a year, then re-post. There is more to being identical than breathing oxygen and having a carbon based metabolism.

    Counterinsurgency

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  198. Dmitry says:

    Offtopic again, but I find it curious just a few minutes ago, to look at the demographic data for America.

    For example.

    1. In New York, blacks have the lowest fertility rate of all races (although all races are below replacement rate in New York).

    2. In California, blacks have the lowest fertility rate of all races (all races of California are below replacement rate, even hispanics – although hispanics have the highest fertility there).

    3. In Utah, whites have the demographers’ “ideal replacement level of fertility of 2,1” (blacks and hispanic are above replacement in Utah, so I assume they are just a minority of black/hispanic Mormons there?).

    4. In Wyoming, blacks have fertility rate of 1,146, as low as Leningrad region. Blacks in Wyoming have the second lowest fertility rate of any people in America (only behind to whites of DC). I wonder if this is because of a limited number of marriage partners, due to their small numbers of blacks there, as the other races have fertility rates of 1,8 there? (In America generally, there is a very low intermarriage rate for blacks to other races).

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  199. Dmitry says:
    @Dmitry

    Also is there some group of black Amish/Haredi people living in Maine (how is their fertility rate 4, when the hispanics are 1,28 in the same state)?

    • Replies: @songbird, @Mr. XYZ
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  200. AndrewR says:

    My only response is to your last sentence.

    That’s disgustingly, appallingly irresponsible of you to write.

    That’s the nicest way I can put it.

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  201. @Daniel Chieh

    I think this analysis holds even if, say, the laws of physics change and all manmade electrical devices cease to function. The balance of equilibrium would still quite favor warlordism, etc.

    But I agree. The Amish will be enslaved by historical recreation nerds with evil overlord pretensions who will get the military and gangsters on their side.

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  202. @Mr. XYZ

    The amount of territory that one has actually does have value in regards to things such as carrying capacity.

    Hypothetically, in an AoMI scenario.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @Skeptikal
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  203. Optimism that the world can “ Support” 100 billion?
    Not a world worth living in.

    I imagine the author has little grasp of USA public lands, “ European Conservation Model”. For starters.

    The entire world economy is a race for what’s left.

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  204. songbird says:
    @Dmitry

    Very interesting chart.

    Also is there some group of black Amish/Haredi people living in Maine (how is their fertility rate 4, when the hispanics are 1,28 in the same state)

    Somalis settled there by the Feds because Maine was considered too white. Same thing is happening in other parts of rural New England and America, but Maine, I think has one of the larger Somali communities. It is kind of disturbing to see diversity come to Maine’s beautiful, old, coastal towns.

    • Agree: Bardon Kaldian
    • Replies: @Dmitry
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  205. iffen says:
    @Smith

    Without genetics, no culture.

    You can teach a dog to run, it will never run as fast as a horse.

    I guess this explains why canids have never brought down an ungulate.

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  206. iffen says:
    @Willem

    I don’t even see a difference when I just look at people.

    You need glasses. Any pair will do, even the cheap ones off the rack at Dollar General.

    • Agree: Daniel Chieh
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  207. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Dmitry

    1. In New York, blacks have the lowest fertility rate of all races (although all races are below replacement rate in New York).

    2. In California, blacks have the lowest fertility rate of all races (all races of California are below replacement rate, even hispanics – although hispanics have the highest fertility there).

    I wonder if this has anything to do with high housing prices there.

    4. In Wyoming, blacks have fertility rate of 1,146, as low as Leningrad region. Blacks in Wyoming have the second lowest fertility rate of any people in America (only behind to whites of DC). I wonder if this is because of a limited number of marriage partners, due to their small numbers of blacks there, as the other races have fertility rates of 1,8 there? (In America generally, there is a very low intermarriage rate for blacks to other races).

    TBH, my guess is that blacks in Wyoming would prefer to marry a person of another race rather than to remain single their entire lives.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
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  208. Skeptikal says:
    @Jake

    I don’t know.

    That was my question.
    Wiki:
    “Most Warsaw Jews spoke Yiddish, but Polish was increasingly used by the young who have not had a problem in identifying themselves fully as Jews, Varsovians and Poles. Polish Jews were entering the mainstream of Polish society, though many thought of themselves as a separate nationality within Poland. ”

    “An ever-increasing proportion of Jews in interwar Poland lived separate lives from the Polish majority. In 1921, 74.2 percent of Polish Jews listed Yiddish or Hebrew as their native language, but the number has risen to 87 percent by 1931 already, resulting in growing tensions between Jews and Poles.[21] Jews were often not identified as Polish nationals; a problem caused not only by the reversal of assimilation shown in national censuses between 1921 and 1931, but also, by the influx of Russian Jews escaping persecution especially in Ukraine where up to 2,000 pogroms took place during the Civil War, in which an estimated 30,000 Jews were massacred directly and a total of 150,000 died”

    The comments about Jewish national identification are interesting.

    Still I wonder whether speaking Yiddish makes a Polish or Russian or Ukainian Jew “Germanic.”

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  209. @Dmitry

    ‘…black/hispanic Mormons there…’

    To make a really bad pun, ‘black/hispanic Mormons’ is an oxymoron.

    However, and in any case, Utah is by no means entirely Mormon. Half, or thereabouts, is my impression.

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  210. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Dmitry

    This might be due to African immigrants and their descendants settling and living in Maine. I seem to recall an effort to resettle Somali Bantu in Maine in large numbers a decade or so ago.

    • Replies: @Skeptikal
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  211. @Mr. XYZ

    ‘TBH, my guess is that blacks in Wyoming would prefer to marry a person of another race rather than to remain single their entire lives.’

    Actually, I think the two blacks are married to each other.

    More seriously, I would guess a disproportionate percentage of the blacks in the state are there on some form of government posting, and have no intention of settling down and having children until they’ve left.

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  212. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I don’t think that this is only hypothetical. After all, even if we’ll be able to engage in things such as embryo selection and gene editing on a mass scale and literally make everyone in the entire world smarter than John von Neumann or Albert Einstein was, there would still be a limit as to just how many people various territories and countries could support. Of course, if everyone was actually this smart, then the carrying capacity for various territories and countries might very well be higher than it is right now due to various technological advances that will occur as a result of the extremely massive ultra-smart fraction that the world will have in this scenario, but there is still going to be a carrying capacity that we will eventually reach if fertility is eventually going to rebound. With or without massive IQ enhancement, I expect fertility to eventually significantly increase since even among extremely smart people, “breeder” genes should eventually predominate. That, and the fact that it is easier to sustain a large family if one is smart and wealthy (and if one is smart, one has more talents and thus more opportunities to become wealthy) as opposed to dull and poor. So, yeah, I expect Russia to eventually see its total population surge and skyrocket. Germany, nowhere near as much as Russia.

    • Replies: @Skeptikal, @Malenfant
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  213. @Willem

    ‘… And as said, and eloborated in this comment, I don’t even see a difference when I just look at people.’

    You can ignore anything if you just try hard enough.

    Stay away from blacks, though. Your enlightenment is likely to prove traumatic.

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  214. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Daniel Chieh

    For better or worse, I think there’s a strong argument that the Amish can only exist due to modern society

    The Amish can only exist as long as others are prepared to allow them to do so.

    The balance of equilibrium would still quite favor warlordism, etc.

    Yes.

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  215. Skeptikal says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    What is AoMI?
    If the survivable future = not urban living, then I think amount of territory, and its quality, cannot help but be relevant.
    Most important perhaps supply of water.
    Plus, also urbanites need to be fed, obviously.
    Not good planning to rely on imported foods, esp. fresh foods.
    Yes, there are greenhouses, etc. and the Netherlands exports the most fresh produce in Europe, but still I think expansive territory will contribute to survival in a number of ways. Of course, the larger the territory the harder to defend. So, what ends up being a prerequisite for survival of a nation or other group will depend on the scenario.

    AK: “What is AoMI?” Read/skim through “A Short History of the Third Millennium” and the AOMI I-IV series.

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/topic/age-of-malthusian-industrialism/

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  216. Johan says:

    The more primitive the people, the more they flock together, if necessary, body to body. You can see that in popular mass festivities, pop music festivities, dance halls , etc., you can see that among primitive peoples, always flocking together in groups, outside, or in houses, cafes etc. They have little individuality, hardly any thoughts of themselves. They represent the non individualized mass man.

    As such, those people who in relation to the issue of overpopulation merely count and calculate in terms of resources as defined by modern ideology are mere semi-barbarian ideologically blinded number crunchers. Blind as they are, if not themselves representatives of mass man, they are overlooking other quantitative and qualitative issues which go along with environments where a great amount of people are stuffed together, issues like noise, the lack of free space, the obsessive industriousness of modern life, altogether the lack of physical, mental and emotional privacy due to the ubiquitous presence of average mass man, issues which are all a heavy drain on the minor part of sensible, cultured and individualized people, people who need privacy, solitude space and quietness for their development.
    In short, they are not taking into account the qualitative criteria which are of great importance for the minor part of individualized people. They are mere self styled ‘flock shepherds’ and ‘resource’ allocators of mass man.

    Since mass man has the habit to always flock together, to make lots of noise, and to be industrious like an ant, and in a democracy, to be very brutal and assertive, too many of them will always make the cities unsuitable for the more intelligent individualized man, as mass man cannot be prevented to not flock together. And as such the decline of society, due to an over-presence of mass man pushing away the intelligentsia, and as such the vast decline of cultural and intellectual development will continue.

    So I would introduce additional criteria on top of the resource criteria used by self-styled modern flock shepherds:

    One mass man makes the mental and mechanical noise of ten sensible men.
    One mass man in a democracy makes the noise of twenty sensible men.
    One mass man in a democratic consumerist work slave society takes the material resources, space and matter, and make the noise of thirty sensible man, or one historical king.

    • Replies: @Skeptikal
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  217. Skeptikal says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    “So, yeah, I expect Russia to eventually see its total population surge and skyrocket. Germany, nowhere near as much as Russia.”

    I should think that Russia will also see increased interest in immigration.
    This subject has come up before, and the response was: No no no!!
    Don’t let them in!

    I kind of agree! But a few expats should be manageable . . .
    My worry would be unregulated or even regulated but undesired migrant waves from China.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
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  218. @EldnahYm

    The English landlords were dicks during the Irish famine sure, but they can hardly be blamed for an oomycete ruining crops, or for that matter the Irish decision to become single crop dependent.

    You utter the words of an utter pillock who knows absolutely nothing about what forces drove the Irish Catholic peasantry to rely so much on the potato.

    “They can hardly be blamed….” Good grief what an idiotic statement!

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  219. Skeptikal says:
    @Johan

    I am more and more convinced that city life is simply barbaric and too stressful for an intelligent individual, unless that person is *rich.*

    See James Howard Kunstler on this. He pushed this line of thinking decades ago, and I think he is right. So in the dystopian future I foresee an urban jungle and various “intelligent” outposts far away from the madding crowds—also to escape from the immigrant experience and avoid the inevitable cultural conflict and annoyance.

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  220. nsa says:

    “My guesstimate is the earth can support around 100 billion people”
    The author is seriously mentally ill. Imagine yourself on any clogged urban freeway and then multiply the number of cars by twelve……….

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  221. AP says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    This assumes that under warlord conditions the Amish would just sit back and allows themselves all to get martyred and/or enslaved like the Moriori. It’s possible, but not 100%.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
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  222. annamaria says:
    @TheTotallyAnonymous

    Mister, google “Haredim.”

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  223. Malenfant says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    > “Even if we’ll be able to engage in things such as embryo selection and gene editing on a mass scale and literally make everyone in the entire world smarter than John von Neumann or Albert Einstein was, there would still be a limit as to just how many people various territories and countries could support.”

    Embryo selection and genetic modification for intelligence face major, if not insurmountable, implementation problems. But a society where the average IQ is just 130, to say nothing of a society where everybody is a stable and productive super-genius, faces no carrying capacity problem. There is a lot of room off-world and in ocean habitats. There are far horizons and infinite frontiers for us to measure ourselves up against. These notions today seem like little more than dreams, but they were dreamed by competent engineers and futurists many decades ago, and they are in principle perfectly feasible.

    Our tragedy is that these big dreams may never be realized. AoMI is far worse than you think it is.

    Fortunately, AoMI is also far less likely than you think it is. All indications are that the heritability of fertility is somewhere between 0.0 and 0.1. (Estimates of >0.1 — and AoMI seems to rely upon an estimate of 0.3 — are highly dubious if not simply spurious. They are an artefact of obviously shoddy methodology. Read the papers, compare them to papers examining the heritability of fertility in wild and farmlot animals, and give the matter some thought.)

    In other words, fertility in itself is very weakly heritable to nonheritable. Breeder genes are not going to come to the fore; in this particular case, it seems nurture is stronger than nature. (Can you identify those genes, if you’re so sure they exist?)

    …And this is why the so-called “breeders” in the West are drawn from religious sects where high fertility is high status. The Quiverfull are a new group — they have no ties of shared origin or kinship — but their TFR is through the roof. The Mormons and Hutterites, now in decline, started in much the same way.

    Mormon TFR has been sky-high since the mid 19th century. Far higher than average. But they peaked in the 1860s, they have been in decline for many decades, and this decline has been very steep over the past ten years. If fertility is heritable to 0.3, this decline can hardly be explained. Fortunately, there are more parsimonious explanations, so it’s not a paradox: Social status no longer increases with children, children have become a burden rather than an asset, religiosity has declined and many Mormons no longer take their religion totally seriously, and so forth. No such explanation is complete, and none of them are totally satisfactory, but they’re a start.

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  224. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    Are you being serious or sarcastic?

    I thought you were being sarcastic at first which is why I put a lol, but I’m not so sure when I read it again.

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  225. annamaria says:
    @AP

    “It was not an advantage for Ukraine to have all of those Russians in its borders.”

    — What would be your opinion of the advantage of having Mr. Groysman, Mr. Zelensky, Mr. Kolomojsky, Mr. Pinchuk, Mr. Zlochevsky and similar eminent Jewish pipers calling the tune in Ukraine?
    https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/10/biden-timeline.html
    https://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-news-and-politics/282575/jews-center-stage-in-ukraine-elections

    The transformation wrought in Ukraine by the Maidan revolution has been an exhilarating roller coaster that has not bypassed Ukrainian Jewry, which is now in the midst of an exciting period of cultural revival paralleling that of the wider Ukrainian society, which is still just beginning to rediscover its own past and imagine an independent future. Whether this post-Soviet country will choose to elect an openly Jewish president, or a part-Jewish president, or continue with its current philo-Semitic president, the future of Ukraine’s Jews would appear to be brighter than anyone might reasonably have imagined.

    Mazel Tov!

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  226. Dmitry says:
    @songbird

    This is from an official American government publication.

    They compress together historic American blacks, with recent African immigrants, into the same category. It would be better if they separated these groups, as they almost don’t have any cultural connection.

    It means historic American blacks must have a lower fertility rate than reported the overall “black rate” – as recent African immigrants are coming from the most high fertility countries in the world, and must raise the reported “black” fertility rates a lot.

    Somalis settled there by the Feds because Maine was considered too white. Same thing is happening in other parts of rural New England and America, but Maine, I think has one of the larger Somali communities.

    Somalia has the second highest fertility rate in the world in the World Bank reporting.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate

    When Somalians immigrate to America, they will probably continue with this high fertility rate for at least 2 generations until their fertility rate will converge with the normal American level.

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  227. AP says:
    @annamaria

    I thought Biden was? Or was it Trump? Freemasons? Illuminati? Poles? Germans? You guys can’t make up your mind, can you?

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  228. AP says:
    @TheTotallyAnonymous

    Feminism, women’s rights and porn were all invented by people that come from a certain tribe called J**s

    Feminism came from Sartre (a man lol). He was not a Jew but half French and half Alsatian (Lutheran). Sartre’s debased sex-slave Simone de Beauvoir was a Frenchwoman.

    Women’s rights – according to wiki in the modern world was first proposed by the Englishman of radical Protestant descent John Locke.

    Pornography – brought into the mainstream by Hugh Hefner, of Swedish, German and English descent, presumably a Lutheran background. The other famous pornographer Larry Flynt is an American Southern evangelical Christian.

    These things seem to be a Protestant legacy.

    • Disagree: TheTotallyAnonymous
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  229. @Anatoly Karlin

    ‘… . Sure, the Germans have been definitively driven out of Eastern Europe, but their population and GDP is only perhaps 20% lower than it would have otherwise been.’

    Well, that becomes very, very speculative. The Nazis managed to significantly increase the German birthrate. You’ve got to decide to what extent they can maintain or further increase that, and to what extent they can foster German colonization in the East.

    By now, nearly eighty years later, almost any outcome seems defensible. Eighty million Germans, two hundred million? Who knows?

    Maybe thirty million. America, developing the hydrogen bomb in 1949, definitively wins the nuclear phase of World War Two.

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  230. S says:

    That said, the Irish have an even more extreme and unique anti-record: There are fewer of them today (~6.6M in all Ireland) than in 1840 (8.5M)!

    It’s thought the Irish during the Famine years 1845 – 1850 lost about a million people due to starvation and disease. During those same years they lost another million of their population due to their enmasse predation as wage slaves (ie so called ‘cheap labor’/’immigrants’) in various far flung places of the British Empire, but in particular in the United States, most of these never to see Ireland again.

    Even after the Famine subsided Ireland continued to hemorrhage large numbers of their people for many decades after.

    Other people’s have experienced their predation as so called ‘cheap labor’ on a large scale, ie South and Central Americans, Baltics, East Europeans, etc, but the Irish are the only people I know of that engaged in armed resistance specifically against this phenomena to try and stop it, something one is not likely to have heard about as it decidedly does not fit the multi-cult ‘narrative’.

    Per the 1847 Famine era Spectator of London article linked below entitled ‘Extermination and Vengeance’; ‘extermination’ references the quarter million people Ireland was losing yearly due to British landlords evicting Irish farmers off their own land and exporting them to the U.S. via their (landlords) paying their (the Irish) ship fare to the United States.

    [Ostensibly one could say ‘no’ to this and either be arrested and be sent to prison and or very possibly starve, or say ‘yes’ and probably never see Ireland again. The Irish apparently didn’t think much of this ‘choice’ that was being offered them.]

    ‘Vengeance’ in the title references the shooting of members of the British aristocracy in Ireland who were promoting or sponsoring this scheme of the mass exodus of the Irish from Ireland as so called ‘cheap labor’.

    http://archive.spectator.co.uk/article/20th-november-1847/12/extermination-and-vengeance

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  231. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Skeptikal

    I meant having massive population growth as a result of Russian “breeders” having a lot of space to expand into. So, it’s going to be Russians themselves who are going to be breeding a lot and thus eventually causing massive population growth in Russia–not immigrants!

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  232. @Willem

    If you go 1mm under the skin (as an anatomist) you will not see a difference between men or women. And as said, and elaborated in this comment, I don’t even see a difference when I just look at people.

    OK, my previous comment wasn’t that good, more of a standard reply.

    Your position is wrong. It is not wrong because of the way you look at people. It is wrong because of the way the people whose difference you say you can’t see look at you. _They_ see a difference. In practice, the difference that they see is enough to break up the Democratic Party, as each different minority group in urban areas tries to seize control of the urban area for itself.

    If you think they are all mistaken, and you can cause them to realize this, then you could save the Democratic Party. If you cannot do that, then your failure to see difference is at variance with a major feature in your environment, comparable to that of a vision impaired person who won’t use vision correction devices (e.g. glasses) or accept corrective surgery.

    Counterinsurgency

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  233. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Malenfant

    Breeder genes are not going to come to the fore; in this particular case, it seems nurture is stronger than nature. (Can you identify those genes, if you’re so sure they exist?)

    You’re asking for actual evidence that breeder genes exist? We don’t need no stinkin’ evidence. We want to believe they exist. We need to believe they exist.

    You’re talking as if this is a matter of science. It’s a matter of faith.

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  234. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Counterinsurgency

    It is wrong because of the way the people whose difference you say you can’t see look at you. _They_ see a difference.

    Of course there are differences. I presume Willem is arguing that the differences are almost entirely cultural. Which is possible.

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  235. @Counterinsurgency

    Any thoughts?

    What’s up with you over dramatizing things by making generalizations (without providing concrete examples) about how women have apparently died when they have had their “rights” taken away from them?

    You give off the vibe of some kind of wierd troll or shill that has a malicious purpose, so I’m really not interested in engaging with you at all …

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  236. @dfordoom

    Not everything that is heritable is genetic, and not everything that is genetic is heritable.

    Example: coal mining is highly heritable, but there is no ‘coal mining gene’. Same with infant circumcision.

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  237. dfordoom says: • Website
    @anonymous coward

    Not everything that is heritable is genetic, and not everything that is genetic is heritable.

    Example: coal mining is highly heritable, but there is no ‘coal mining gene’. Same with infant circumcision.

    Yes, absolutely. It’s called culture. Cultural heredity is real.

    And for the past couple of thousand years it’s likely that cultural heredity has been a bigger factor than genetic heredity.

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  238. Smith says:
    @dfordoom

    No demographics, no culture.

    Hell, culture STEMS from demographics.

    As we can see in America, as there are more brown people, even white people start to act more like brown people.

    Culture can be remade/relearned, once genetics are lost, it takes costly genetic editing to reform.

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  239. neutral says:
    @Kurt_5

    I also have to add that around 1900 the white population was around 25% of the population, now it is around 9% with the same fertility rates as the other formerly white nations.

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  240. neutral says:
    @dfordoom

    We trashed our own societies

    There is now “we” here, the jews take the ultimate blame. They took over control of the USA, UK and USSR and it is they that firebombed white cities that resisted their rule, forced them to take mass non white immigration and produce the modern pop culture that preaches ethnic cleansing of whites. Jews trashed the white societies, we have to deal with the jews.

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  241. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Smith

    As we can see in America, as there are more brown people, even white people start to act more like brown people.

    What is actually happening in America is that brown and black people have been acting more like white people. They have picked up the cultural degeneracy of white culture – the LGBT stuff, slut culture, the drug culture, the anti-family attitudes, the contempt for authority figures, the lack of respect for old people, celebrity worship, consumerism, hedonism, atheism.

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  242. Smith says:
    @dfordoom

    Aksually, these cultures are actually strong in their native homeland or in super-diverse states, especially in California, South America and Africa where there are LESS white people. Have you taken a look at the Chilean protest recently?

    And no, I don’t think LGBT culture, slut culture, drug culture, anti-family attitudes, etc, etc are white people culture.

    Meanwhile, it is factual that white people in the US are acting more and more like brown people, with the commodification of rap and gangsta cultures.

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  243. EldnahYm says:
    @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    Population growth was the primary force.

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  244. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Smith

    And no, I don’t think LGBT culture, slut culture, drug culture, anti-family attitudes, etc, etc are white people culture.

    You definitely haven’t been paying attention to the history of the postwar era. All of the civilisation-destroying forces I listed were creations of the West. They were invented by us. By white people.

    Meanwhile, it is factual that white people in the US are acting more and more like brown people, with the commodification of rap and gangsta cultures.

    Everyone, white or brown or black, has been infected by our cultural decadence. As for rap and gangsta cultures you can blame capitalism for that. There’s money in it. And nothing matters besides money. That’s the modern West. Oh, and we invented capitalism as well. And liberalism. We invented everything that is dragging us down into the gutter and into chaos.

    And the US has exported its cultural degeneracy to the entire planet.

    Hint: we need to spend more time thinking and less time hating others for our own failures.

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  245. EldnahYm says:
    @S

    Only about 3-4% of Irish emigrants were supported by landlords or the state, if Cormac O Grada’s book is right.

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  246. @AP

    I assume there’ll be selection. Large part of them get killed or enslaved, another part adapt and fight back… but then they stop being Amish (who are pacifists).

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  247. @Colin Wright

    That depends on Germany winning WW2, in that case sure, if the system was stable and they managed to completely redefine the social matrix of a modern state, there might be many more Germans. However, we are considering “business as usual” scenarios (e.g., say, no WW1, or subsequent World Wars). The Nazis coming to power was a fluke, Hitler lucking out of confrontation before 1939 was lucky, Germany beating France in 1940 so quickly was also almost a fluke. (Of course, there’s also the ironic scenario that if Germany had also won against the USSR, but taken too long to do it – say, until 1944 – it may have become subject to American atomic democide, and ended up in a far worse state than it actually did).

    However, my basic point is that even WW1 was far from inevitable, the victory of Bolshevism in particular was an extreme fluke, while WW2 – in particular one that was as brutal as it was – was a fluke. Relative to “business as usual” scenarios, Russia’s power (demographic, economic) relative to Germany would have probably been substantially higher than it actually is.

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  248. Contrast says:

    It is good for Russia if it is more violent and less prosperous than other countries because that makes it more resilient against third-world immigration than those other countries. There is less of a pull factor and those immigrants that do arrive face more resistance from the native population.

    Question is: What would happen if Russia became more prosperous, less violent and more liberal?

    The conviction that people are the same everywhere is ridiculous. What did Africans do during all those millennia when the rest of the world developed civilization? Africa supposedly had a head start of 150.000 years before home sapiens ventured outside. Africans did nothing with it. Some 19th century explorers like Livingstone met African communities who did not even know the wheel, for heaven’s sake.

    Africans are adapted to carrying on their genes in a resource-rich but unpredictable environment – like the ones crime-infested, welfare-dependent ghettos in the developed world are presenting to them right now. Among other things, this means that males are primarily adapted to competing with other males, and less adapted to extracting resources from nature since they can leave that part to the women. (As an aside, the more anarchic circumstances become in the developed world, the more Darwinian sense it makes for mostly low-quality white women to prefer African mating partners over white ones. So much for supposed female irrationality. Females are actually behaving very rationally in Darwinian terms. Feminist ideology is a deception they use, often a self-deception.)

    Problem is: Today’s resource-rich environment in the industrialized world depends on non African-traits dominating society.

    We live in a transitional phase. Africans cannot take over completely. The resource-rich environment they are taking over gets destroyed or Africans become less like Africans in the process or some ethnic patchwork emerges, likely a combination of all three.

    Globalist are banking on letting it all happen and steering it to their advantage.

    Non-globalists have to be clever about how to react to it. Accepting the ethnic patchwork as a given outcome appears to be most promising. Be like Christian minorities that have survived in the Near East since Islam took over.

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  249. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Anatoly Karlin

    On the subject of history and luck, one of the more spectacular examples was the death of the Empress Elizabeth. Had she lived another two years Frederick the Great would have been squashed like a bug. Prussia would probably not have become the dominant power in Germany. Germany might never have been unified, or it might have been unified under the Austrians. Imagine a Habsburg Empire including the whole of Germany.

    So Germany might never have been anything more than a geographical expression, or it might have been the first superpower.

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  250. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    They might retain everything but their pacifism vs. warlords. Their elders might decide that the brutal warlords are agents of Satan or something. Or they might come to an agreement with whichever warlord chooses to leave them alone, in exchange for food.

    For example, Amish have gotten around the restriction against electricity and cars by allowing their non-Amish neighbors to drive them places.

    Amish are physically very healthy people, loyal to one another, who know their way around guns. They would make a formidable force if they turned self-protection on.

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  251. Emslander says:
    @Jake

    A number of commenters here, like elsewhere, are paid by the likes of the SPLC or ADL, etc.

    I’m not one of them, but if you could put me in touch with either of those orgaizations, I wouldn’t mind being paid for posting. I actually don’t know what they are. In the meantime, I think a lot of commenters here need to have the psychotropic drugs they’re taking adjusted away from the paranoid end of the spectrum.

    The Amish live and prosper the way 90 percent of the people in America prospered until the banks destroyed agriculture in the 1920’s.

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  252. @dfordoom

    Labeling it as ‘culture’ is too specific and not correct.

    Coal mining is heritable not because of some ‘coal mining culture’, it is heritable because coal miners live in places where there are no other jobs and they don’t have the physical resources to move somewhere else.

    Another example is iodine deficiency – it makes people dumb, dumb people can’t move somewhere else or fix the iodine problem and go on to give birth to the next generation which grows up iodine deficient.

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  253. argybargy says:
    @for-the-record

    But Egypt has been demographically swamped since ancient times, mostly by Arabs, whereas Greece has not. While the Greeks were eventually pushed out of Asia Minor back to within their traditional homeland, the Egyptians had no such buffer zone and had to absorb the invading hordes on their home territory. Most Egyptians today are not the same stock as the the ancients.

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  254. @Mr. XYZ

    So the Subcontinent should be renamed as the “South Asian” subcontinent just to accommodate the Muslims? Next thing you know, you will advocate calling the Bronx, the Nueva Puerto Rico or Minneapolis the New Mogadishu or Jerusalem the New Mecca… when will the apologists of Islam stop with the nonsense? Enough is enough!

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  255. @Malenfant

    Future, my good friend, is going to bring a violent clash between the Hindus and the Muslims of India for their dwindling resources and the outcome isn’t gonna be pretty for both sides.

    • Agree: Counterinsurgency
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  256. S says:
    @EldnahYm

    That’s a big ‘if’ regarding those numbers you are presenting.

    The point still stands. The Irish, starving to death as they were, and shooting members of the British aristocracy in Ireland who were sponsoring or promoting the mass exodus of the Irish as wage slaves to foreign lands, suggest that maybe there is something majorly morally in error with the whole so called ‘cheap labor’/’mass immigration’ scheme that is the economic and political basis of the modern multi-cult society.

    It also suggest that people who promote such are not offering ‘a helping hand’ but are rather predators.

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  257. Che Guava says:
    @Anatman

    Ynu are a moron, I am not a boomer (only heard the term recently, and my parents were according to that).

    The more interesting thing is wtf are you in IRL? Here, at least a misled moron os a paid progadandist.

    Probably on spare time from a crap job or just as a paid propagandist.

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  258. Sparkon says:

    The painting atop Mr. Karlin’s article is “A Short Tour and Farewell” by French surrealist artist Raymond Douillet.

    These facts were brought to you by a real American Baby Boomer.

    Like many in my generation, I do care about such things as accuracy, fair play, attention to detail, and giving credit where credit is due.

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  259. Anatman says:
    @Che Guava

    Oops, you got me – I’m working inside of a stuffy, secretive, abandoned warehouse building housing one of those troll farms you hear about, right this very instant. Gee, you’re a sharp one, how ever did you find out?

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  260. Contrast says:
    @dfordoom

    More on history and good or bad luck (depending on viewpoint):

    Had Caeasar not been killed, then he would have departed on a military campaign just a few days later. The plan was to hone troops in attacking the Dacians and then use these troops in invading the Parthians. Had Ceasar defeated the Parthians, then several centuries of competition between Rome and Parthia and later between Byzantium and the Sassanid empire might have played out more in Rome’s favor. This competition eventually weakened both Byzantium and the Sassanid empire to a degree that allowed Islam to take over.

    Had the Great Khan Mongke not died, then Hulagu, brother to Mongke’s successor Kublai Khan, had not returned from campaigning in Persia, Iraq and Syria, a campaign that had already seen the total destruction of Baghdad. He left behind just 10000 troops which were defeated by Egyptian mameluks at the battle of Ain Jalut. Hulagu’s full force would probably not have been defeated due to sheer numbers. It would then have proceeded to conquering both Islam’s holy cities on the Arabian peninsula and Egypt. That would have brought the end of Islam.

    The Duke of Alba was under orders not to attack the English before the Great Armada that he was leading had not taken aboard Spanish troops that were on station across the channel. There were already thousands of infantry aboard theses ships when they were approaching the Southern coast of England while the English fleet was holed up in Southampton due to unfavorable winds. Had the Duke disobeyed orders by using these troops to destroy the English fleet in port, then the larger contingent could have been brought to England un-opposed. That would have brought England firmly under catholic rule, ultimately leading to the demise of Protestantism and a very different Europe.

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  261. @TheTotallyAnonymous

    You give off the vibe of some kind of wierd troll or shill that has a malicious purpose, so I’m really not interested in engaging with you at all …

    Then don’t. If you use the “this commentator” button below this message, you can block all my comments.

    Counterinsurgency

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  262. zogborg says:

    The most fascinating people in the world is the Australoid race of the South Pacific. Who do the people of Papua New Guinea remind you of? Genetically they are closest to Asians despite outward appearance.

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  263. annamaria says:
    @AP

    Y0u missed the point. One more time:
    https://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-news-and-politics/282575/jews-center-stage-in-ukraine-elections

    The transformation wrought in Ukraine by the Maidan revolution has been an exhilarating roller coaster that has not bypassed Ukrainian Jewry, which is now in the midst of an exciting period of cultural revival paralleling that of the wider Ukrainian society, which is still just beginning to rediscover its own past and imagine an independent future. Whether this post-Soviet country will choose to elect an openly Jewish president, or a part-Jewish president, or continue with its current philo-Semitic president, the future of Ukraine’s Jews would appear to be brighter than anyone might reasonably have imagined.

    Chalupa sisters and other Banderites (the self-proclaimed neo-Nazi) joined hands with the Kagans clan’ activists and with such locals as Kolomojsky (the leader of the Jewish community of Ukraine) and Pinchuk (a Jewish mega-donor for Clintons) in their fight against “Russian influence” or whatever. https://www.rt.com/usa/423731-russia-collusion-ukraine-oligarch-clinton/

    Pinchuk is a long-time Clinton donor (he’s given an estimated $13 million to the Clinton Foundation since 2006, according to the New York Times)… who is listed as a financial supporter of a vehemently anti-Russia, pro-NATO think tank.

    https://observer.com/2017/01/ukraine-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-election/

    In addition to the Chalupas, the co-founder and CTO of Crowdstrike, the cyber security firm that the DNC hired to investigate the alleged hacks, Dmitri Alperovitch also serves as a senior fellow to the Washington-based think tank Atlantic Council, which is an openly anti-Russian … The Atlantic Council is funded by [Jewish]-Ukrainian oligarch Victor Pinchuk, who also happens to be one of the most prolific donors to the Clinton Foundation. The DNC denied multiple requests from the FBI to access their servers, effectively forcing the FBI to rely on CrowdStrike’s assessment of the hacks.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Pinchuk

    Victor Pinchuk contributed millions to both the British intelligence outpost known as the Atlantic Council and the Clinton Foundation and is an extremely important player in the British operations against Trump. … the filthy British operation run against the President is staffed by a group which might be called,“Veterans of the Ukraine coup.” Not only was Christopher Steele being paid as an informant of the FBI concerning Ukraine, he was also funneling his dirty memos to the State Department’s Victoria Nuland, the U.S. case officer for the coup. StopFake, the anti-Russia censorship and InfoWar network associated with the Chalupa sisters, is a full partner of the British military’s Integrity Initiative information warfare operation. That operation grew out of a British strategic determination for regime change in Russia following the 2014 Ukraine coup. https://larouchepac.com/20190322/john-solomon-breaks-old-story-all-roads-russiagate-lead-back-british-coup-ukraine-not

    This is for “AP” — Mazel Tov!

    • Replies: @Philip Owen, @Dmitry, @AP
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  264. @Anatoly Karlin

    ‘…Relative to “business as usual” scenarios, Russia’s power (demographic, economic) relative to Germany would have probably been substantially higher than it actually is.’

    Your theories are perceptibly colored by Russian nationalist preferences, but I think you may be right here.

    Russia had more to lose; an enormous amount of potential that even now has yet to be realized. Today, it could easily be a first-world state in every sense of the word, with a population fifty percent larger than it is.

    Germany as well suffered catastrophic setbacks; but she had less to gain. Socially and economically, she was already in the broad, sunlit uplands, so to speak, and has only recently allowed developments that may reverse that. Even here, I strongly suspect the tidal influx of third world immigration will be reversed. That’ll be ugly to watch, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.

    Otherwise, how far and quickly Germany could have territorially expanded is questionable. It’s not the Middle Ages any more. In an age of nationalist consciousness and social sophistication, Slavs can’t just be converted into Germans by example, and the Nazis attempts at encouraging Germans to settle the East suggest that modern Germans just weren’t terribly interested in going off and being yeoman farmers in places where they weren’t wanted.

    As so often here, the Nazi experience matches the Zionist one. Just as the Zionists have never been able to get many Jews with an authentic choice in the matter to move to Palestine, so the Nazis were never able to get many Germans who had alternatives to move to even the annexed lands in Western Poland. My impression is that settlers there were were largely Bessarabian Germans fleeing Communist rule, and Lorrainer ‘Germans’ who could simply be told they were moving. Your basic Rhineland peasant preferred to stick with his ancestral two acres. Particularly given that the Nazis had relieved the immediate economic crisis, he was doing okay now, and he wasn’t about to go off to freeze in the wilds of Poland — much less the Ukraine.

    The point here is that while Russia could have radically increased her ‘size’ with development, it’s uncertain that Germany could have. She was already cutting edge socially and economically, and for that very reason, it’s uncertain she could have physically expanded much further than she already had by 1870; Germans weren’t going to move. I can’t see Germany managing to increase her effective territory by much more than about 20%. The rest would be more like a European colonial empire; gratifying to national vanity, but not much use otherwise.

    • Replies: @Skeptikal
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  265. @Contrast

    Non-globalists have to be clever about how to react to it. Accepting the ethnic patchwork as a given outcome appears to be most promising. Be like Christian minorities that have survived in the Near East since Islam took over.

    Seriously, this amounts to the White settlements (a) becoming the only remaining source of loot and (b) having insufficient manpower to prevent raids. The endgame there is that of the Armenians. I don’t believe that this is a good strategy.

    Counterinsurgency

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  266. @Counterinsurgency

    Ron Unz, is there a way to add more markup within posts, e.g. superscript for notes?

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  267. @Anatoly Karlin

    I assume there’ll be selection. Large part of them get killed or enslaved, another part adapt and fight back… but then they stop being Amish (who are pacifists).

    Just to expand on that, for those who like detail:

    The Amish and Mennonite religions originated (ultimately) during the breakup of Catholicism during the run-up to the 30 Years War. Amish didn’t get their name until AD 1693 [1], about 45 years after the 30 Year’s War ended.

    Amish precursors were a kind of Anabaptists back then [3], a part of the Reformation more radical than most [4]. During the 30 Years War, the Anabaptists had the distinction of being killed as evil by both the Protestant and Catholic sides. Anabaptist tended to drop more of Christianity than most other groups, attempting in some cases to live like the Old Testament patriarchs, and of course none believed in the efficacy of baptism.

    For what it is worth, I once worked with a devout Anabaptist, who was still extremely angry at the way his antecedents had been treated in the AD 1500s and AD 1600s, and who turned out to be untrustworthy. Other contemporary Anabaptists, Mennonites in particular, have turned out to be extremely trustworthy.

    The Anabaptist survivors of the 30 Years War that have descendants today were the groups that advocated absolute pacifism. I suspect that existing Anabaptist groups (including Amish) have a strong institutional memory of their origin and would treat becoming a persecuted group as just more of the historical same. I also suspect that they would strongly resist dropping their pacifism. Of course, new groups might form that did drop pacifism, but these groups would not be recognized by their groups of origin.

    Counterinsurgency

    1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amish

    3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anabaptists

    4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radical_Reformation

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  268. songbird says:
    @Dmitry

    It’s interesting to look at the different statistics for states. There is some idea that blacks vary a lot by region within the US, due to migration being a filter. According to this theory, the most elite blacks on the state level would be in Hawaii, followed by the North or West. Last of all would be the old slave states. But I don’t see any clear trend here. I bet you on a more local level – postal codes – the numbers would be really interesting.

    IMO, a lot of black fertility is from babymamas – I think they have the highest dysgenic trends among any group in the US. The black middle class probably has very low TFR.

    I almost feel sorry for Somalis because their land seems like a natural hellhole – even just climatically. Of course, I would still deport them all because I am not crazy.

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  269. Skeptikal says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    This idea of a “fluke” in history is ridiculous and bizarre.
    As compared to what?

    The idea of a “fluke” relies on the concept of the existence of some kind of average. Ie.,
    In other early-twentieth-century Europes that we know of and can factor into our average, this event didn’t occur! Thus, when it did occur in “our” early twentieth-century Europe, the one we are talking about here, it is fluke!

    I really don’t think you can “average out” historic events—esp. major events—that are in essence unique.
    You can compare and contrast and collect statistics, but labeling WWI and every event that followed it a “fluke” and then drawing demographic conclusions from the flukiness is silly.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @dfordoom
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  270. Skeptikal says:
    @Colin Wright

    YOur argument makes a lot of sense, but doesn’t seem to cover the whole situation.
    I think a lot of Germans did emigrate . . . but to the USA, South America, and some other places, not to Eastern Europe.
    Maybe also like the Jews, given a choice they would prefer to take their chances in North America than in Poland/Israel.

    https://www.loc.gov/teachers/classroommaterials/presentationsandactivities/presentations/immigration/german4.html

    “A New Surge of Growth

    German immigration boomed in the 19th century. Wars in Europe and America had slowed the arrival of immigrants for several decades starting in the 1770s, but by 1830 German immigration had increased more than tenfold. From that year until World War I, almost 90 percent of all German emigrants chose the United States as their destination. Once established in their new home, these settlers wrote to family and friends in Europe describing the opportunities available in the U.S. These letters were circulated in German newspapers and books, prompting “chain migrations.” By 1832, more than 10,000 immigrants arrived in the U.S. from Germany. By 1854, that number had jumped to nearly 200,000 immigrants.

    For typical working people in Germany, who were forced to endure land seizures, unemployment, increased competition from British goods, and the repercussions of the failed German Revolution of 1848, prospects in the United States seemed bright. It soon became easier to leave Germany, as restrictions on emigration were eased. As steamships replaced sailing ships, the transatlantic journey became more accessible and more tolerable. As a result, more than 5 million people left Germany for the U.S. during the 19th century. “

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  271. Contrast says:
    @Counterinsurgency

    Sure, what happened to the Armenians might well be what is held in store for Whites. The Armenians still have their own country outside Turkey, though, so things might not be so clear-cut. The point is that clinging to the idea of securing White homelands in the West might lead to mental self-blockade. If White homelands are out of reach, then what? Counterinsurgency sounds nice but what if staving off flat-out genocide were all it could realistically achieve? It’s not so much about what is to be done, it’s more about under what banner and with what mindset. A more fluent approach might help in coping with frustration. The Jewish diaspora survived two millennia on the basis of a hybrid mindset that perhaps included dreaming of a homeland. But it never took center-stage. Right-wing leaders do indeed keep talking of separatism and White homelands. They should start talking more of hiding one’s own Whiteness, inner emigration and forming tight-knit communities emulating the Jews. First and foremost, some form of religion needs to be invented that totally revolves around ethno-centrism. Such a religion already exists but it’s not for Whites, of course :-). Probably it has to be based on science. Whites should start worshipping their gene pool.

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  272. Willem says:
    @dfordoom

    Yes, I mean cultural. But since cultural can mean so many things to people, I should clarify myself.

    So everyone who is sick wants to receive healthcare. So access to healthcare for all is cultural.

    Everyone who has kids wants them to have a good future. And since a good future is synonymous to good education, every kid should be able to receive a good education. So education for all is cultural.

    Nobody wants to work day in day out, so there should be rules that prevent people to become overburdened with work, which is cultural

    Things become more difficult when the definition of culture becomes murkier. To take an example from Ron Unz: Hispanics are more criminal. What does that mean? That Hispanics are more criminal? Or that Hispanics are more poor, and therefore become criminal (to make ends meet). The answer: stratify on socioeconomic status, and then you see that poor people are more criminal, independent if they are Hispanic or not. So here I would define that poverty leads to more criminality (to make ends meet) which is cultural. And if you want to do something about that you should challenge poverty with governmental help (e.g., basic income, help with getting people out of unemployment, or out of jail, etc). The racists disagree: they believe that skin colour is cultural. And since you cannot do anything about skin colour, you cannot do anything about crime from Hispanics. But you sure can hate them, that in fact is the easiest thing to do, much easier than taking the time in trying to understand someone else or someone else’s situation. Hating others also has this beautiful extra that, in comparison, it makes the person who hates another such a good person. Hating is a thing that insecure people are very good in. But since the hate is undefined you usually get that the hating person, sooner or later, starts to hate himself. From that moment onwards the only salvation, it seems to the hating person, is to cling to a group that has the same prejudice against others that you have and worship the most vocal leaders amongst that group. In that way you can continue your hate, but now in group context. You find your salvation (of not hating yourself) in the group, by giving up your own humanity. I think UR is a very interesting site as you can see that phenomenon occurring among the writing and the commenting. Of course not among all commenters (whom the cap fits should wear it), but there are plenty of (anonymous) commenters here who surely seem to have lost touch with reality, yet cling to the writers of UR as if they are gods whose words have to be defended against anyone who has a different opinion from them, certainly when such a dissident person acts like a humanist, communist, socialist, aims to be kind (the heresy). They usually expose themselves by being sarcastic or by plainly being nasty, which happens if you are just not capable (anymore) to try to listen to what the other has to say.

    I think the majority of racists are just lazy thinkers. In fact, I know plenty of people in the Netherlands who vote for political porties that are pure racist, yet these same people are also able to help others (with a non-white skin) who e.g., are in dire-straits or whose children need help, and some of their friends are non-whites. They are fine people, they just haven’t thought things through, which makes them sort of confused. But it usually doesn’t matter since the confusion is about something abstract that does not (or which they do not) relate with their own life.

    Now the media could do a real good job in educating what culture is to the masses, but they usually don’t. Most media are made by and read by people of affluence, and people of affluence are very class concious (more for themselves!), readers and writers of UR not excluded (except from Linh Dinh maybe, but he is a ‘special’ case). So instead of educating people about culture, the media manufacture all sorts of stories that scare readers to feel empathy towards other classes. And with that everything stays stable and looks fine for those who are affluent.

    Not that the affluent are to be envied. Their decadence is not inherited, but also cultural, that is that those who belong to the leisure class have nothing much more to do with their time, then to spend it with buying stuff, making silly arguments against one another, constantly feeling sad and disconnected from earth, because that is what boredom does to you. So if you want to challenge decadence, you should try to do something about the boredom of the leisure class and not hate the decadent rich.

    Or as Nietzsche said: ‘Against boredom, even the gods struggle in vain.’

    And now it’s high time to do something again instead of commenting here. But I appreciated your comment about ‘culture’, which is the reason why I wrote such a lengthy response.

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  273. @Skeptikal

    This idea of a “fluke” in history is ridiculous and bizarre.
    As compared to what?

    As suggested by the existence of n=~200 polities, which allows for comparative historical experiments.

    For every successful Communist revolution (e.g. USSR, Cuba) there were about ten that failed. The vast majority of socialist states were militarily imposed by the USSR. Alternatively, one may read any history of the October Revolution and note the huge amount of separate things that went just right (or rather wrong) that enabled it to succeed.

    You can compare and contrast and collect statistics, but labeling WWI and every event that followed it a “fluke” and then drawing demographic conclusions from the flukiness is silly.

    There were plenty of war scares prior to WW1 that did not lead to its outbreak. Cumulatively, the risk was pretty high it would go off eventually, but far from assured.

    The rise of Nazism also consisted of a series of lucky breaks, and would have been impossible without the Communist threat represented by the USSR.

    I think most military historians would agree that Germany lucked out knocking out France so quickly in 1940.

    • Agree: AP
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  274. S says:
    @Contrast

    I’ve sometimes thought it might make for an interesting fictional book plot regarding Genghis Khan ie if someone were to ever locate his still missing corpse, extract DNA from it, clone him, and then raise him in the modern art of warfare.

    Programmed not to attack his handlers Genghis Khan II’s services as an unbeatable warlord/super soldier (sort of a human Godzilla) could then be sold to the highest bidder. 😉

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  275. @S

    If you really need a good general with Neo-Mongol aesthetics you’d be better off with Subotai (just make sure you keep him on a diet).

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  276. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    As suggested by the existence of n=~200 polities, which allows for comparative historical experiments.

    For every successful Communist revolution (e.g. USSR, Cuba) there were about ten that failed. The vast majority of socialist states were militarily imposed by the USSR. Alternatively, one may read any history of the October Revolution and note the huge amount of separate things that went just right (or rather wrong) that enabled it to succeed.

    In regards to Russia, two things that appear to be especially significant in the Communist rise to power are:

    1. Kerensky’s refusal to make a deal with Kornilov to crush the Bolsheviks (instead deciding to arm the Bolsheviks to fight Kornilov!). Had Kerensky done this, this could have been Russia’s equivalent of Germany’s Ebert-Groener Pact.

    2. The Russian Tsars’ unwillingness to create genuine democracy in Russia in the pre-WWI era. Had they done this, maybe more Russians would have been willing to wait until the end of the war for new elections as opposed to supporting revolutionaries.

    There were plenty of war scares prior to WW1 that did not lead to its outbreak. Cumulatively, the risk was pretty high it would go off eventually, but far from assured.

    Richard Ned Lebow actually argues that the outbreak of WWI was a bit of a fluke. That said, though, had FF survived in 1914 and come to power in Austria-Hungary, Russia might have had an opportunity to spark an alternate WWI in 1917 if the Hungarians (due to their fear of FF) would have refused to renew their union with Austria at that point in time.

    The rise of Nazism also consisted of a series of lucky breaks, and would have been impossible without the Communist threat represented by the USSR.

    TBF, though, the threat of Communism in the 1920s didn’t cause a lot of Germans to vote for the Nazis. Rather, it was the Great Depression that did that. AFAIK, the Great Depression might still occur even if Russia doesn’t go Red. As for German conservatives putting Hitler into power, well, they weren’t exactly fond of Weimar democracy to begin with and already flirted with the idea of some kind of military coup and right-wing dictatorship even before they put Hitler into power. Putting Hitler into power allowed them to generate a lot of public legitimacy for the new right-wing dictatorship since they could count on Hitler’s 30+% support for their own cause. Of course, what they didn’t anticipate was Hitler’s subsequent outmaneuvering of all of them and his seizure of absolute power. Anyway, though, my point here is that I could still see Hitler or someone like him come to power in Germany even if Russia doesn’t actually go Red.

    As a side note, if Russia doesn’t go Red in 1917, I wonder if it would have become a right-wing dictatorship during the Great Depression. After all, by 1938, all Central and Eastern European countries other than Czechoslovakia became right-wing dictatorships. Why would a non-Bolshevik Russia have been an exception to this trend?

    I think most military historians would agree that Germany lucked out knocking out France so quickly in 1940.

    Yep–though didn’t Germany have air superiority back then?

    What really hurt France in 1940 was its inability to form an alliance with the USSR and/or the US in 1939. Either one of these–but especially the USSR–would have helped France in its war against Germany in 1940.

    Interestingly enough, the Fall of France was especially devastating for European Jewry since it paved the way for Operation Barbarossa as well as for the Nazi occupations of Hungary, Yugoslavia, and Greece.

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  277. Anon 2 says:

    Stanisław Kowalski of Poland is now the oldest runner in the world.
    He is 109 years old (born in 1910). A new age division for World
    Masters Athletics, the M105 division, had to be created of which
    at the time he was the only member and hence all of his performances
    were world records. He credits his longevity to never going to the
    doctor!

    Poland’s life expectancy is 78.62 and rising at the rate of 0.2-0.3% a year.
    The United States’ life expectancy is 78.87, and has now declined 3 years
    in a row.

    Go Polonians! Go Slavs!

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  278. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    However, my basic point is that even WW1 was far from inevitable, the victory of Bolshevism in particular was an extreme fluke, while WW2 – in particular one that was as brutal as it was – was a fluke. Relative to “business as usual” scenarios, Russia’s power (demographic, economic) relative to Germany would have probably been substantially higher than it actually is.

    Yeah, Russia got really fucked over during the 20th century–though at least it was lucky enough to keep its European homeland. Had the Nazis won WWII, they could have deported tens of millions of Slavs or more out of the European part of the USSR and into Siberia and/or Central Asia.

    As a side note, one would think that Israel was more fucked over by the 20th century than Russia was, no? I mean, the Holocaust eliminated millions of potential Ashkenazi Jewish immigrants to Israel–immigrants who could have really contributed to Israel, its progress, and its prosperity. Even with WWII but without the Fall of France, the Holocaust would have been at least two times less severe than it was in real life due to about three million less Jews ever ending up under Nazi rule.

    (Of course, there’s also the ironic scenario that if Germany had also won against the USSR, but taken too long to do it – say, until 1944 – it may have become subject to American atomic democide, and ended up in a far worse state than it actually did).

    If, after December 1941, it would have looked like the USSR was on the verge of collapse, might Britain and/or the US have sent a lot of their troops to the Eastern Front to help the USSR fight the Nazis?

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  279. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anon 2

    #PolandStronk
    #StronkPolonk
    #ShakingThatPolonkadonk

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  280. polaco says:

    Normiecons won’t like this, but generous parental leave & child support appear to be far better than banning abortion & social conservatism so far as promoting higher fertility and disincentivizing dysgenic reproduction patterns goes in First World countries.

    Just saw the article on lewrockwell, banning abortion and granting benefits are not mutually exclusive. Poland’s Law and Justice party government has now been giving direct monetary benefits at 500 PLN a month per child to families, leave and other benefits exist as in any social democratic/socialist country. What people need is actually to have confidence in the future, a strong economy and a strong job market, when the outlook isn’t too rosy you just delay starting a family, nevertheless Poland’s married couples are on average the youngest in the EU, and we’re no Arabs, Turks or what have you like France, Sweden or Germany- https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-nations-of-europe-by-the-average-age-at-first-marriage.html;

    Another way to spur population growth is the total absence of any benefits- when all you have to fall back on in old age is children and family you always have it in your mind and give it the deserved priority- and real free market capitalism to strengthen the economy, low taxes- as things stand now- income tax, petrol at $5 a gallon, tax accounts for two thirds of the cost of electricity and natural gas, a 24% value added tax, import taxes and duties, there is talk of introducing a real estate tax, land tax has existed even under communism, all the layers of taxes apply and affect everyone, from producers to suppliers, retailers, consumers, it’s a huge burden which exponentially increases the cost of living, but yes- there is free medical care and education if you’re too dumb to see, no real growth just chugging along; there were no socialist programmes and benefits during the Belle Epoque, yet Europe’s population was growing and Europe was as first world as could be. The total taxes per capita between 1870 and 1914 were about 12% in Europe and 9% in the US. Advances in technology, robotics and all that, have allowed governments to progressively steal more and more while the increasing productivity helped to obfuscate the disastrous consequences, initially the effects of such policy were hidden, but only until a time, the chickens are coming home to roost, the economies of Europe are dead.

    Poland is very holy – but it doesn’t seem to do it much good.

    Being holy will do you much good when you die. Anyway, this statement is absurd, taken together conservatives (Law and Justice, Confederation Liberty and Independence) got about 50% of the vote this parliamentary election, there has never ben a landslide like in Hungary. Communists who wanted to bring refugees in, spread homosexual and gender propaganda, who kiss Putins’s ass and the UE leaders’ boots have always gotten at least about 40-45%, every election, if they didn’t manage to win, one atheistic Russian agent, an open enemy of the Catholic Church- Aleksander Kwasniewski was president for 10 years, Russian propaganda has been inciting hatred towards the Church since the beginning of communism and it worked great (see that priest over there- he has a car and you schmuck must take the bus to work and similar nonsense- a car or a bathroom were luxuries in those days) all that in a supposedly “holy” country. Btw, the Russian minority (Bela-, Malorus, you name it) always votes close to 100% communist- for faggots and abortion, so long as it hurts Poland, just like they went all in for Bolshevism when it sounded really nice to steal from those who were better off, and now want to whitewash their guilt.

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  281. Gerad. 12 says:
    @Svevlad

    Africans significantly smarter than the negroes in North,South and central America. This pattern is obvious in UK,Australia ,US and so on between Africans and Carribean people

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  282. polaco says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    We’ve never fallen for your yiddish(it) lies, you had to use the russkies to take over and destroy our country.

    • LOL: Anatoly Karlin
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  283. iffen says:
    @dfordoom

    Is that you, Thomas Sowell?

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  284. @Anatoly Karlin

    I will put in a bid for Saratov, the 3rd biggest city in what is now modern Russia during the Silver Age. It was wealthy this bourgeois so the Bolsheviks starved it (literally at times) of development until the late 1960’s. It is the natural port for the Russian Black Earth which might have been a food production area second only to the US Mid West. Chicago in Europe.

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  285. Daniel.I says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    it seems eager to import a lot of Third Worlders

    God’s Chosen wouldn’t have anything to do with that, would they

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  286. @Anon 2

    These tidbits of yours are fun. Keep up the good work!

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  287. @RadicalCenter

    The 5000 children who attend the 9 schools we up by my wife in poor parts of Zambia, courtesy of Quaker donors, are on the verge of starvation after 5 years of drought.. Only half of them have the energy to make it in for lessons. At 10p a day to feed them and 150 days to harvest it is £7500 to keep them alive (but parents, other family?). The big problem is £100 per family for 1000 families to replace seeds and buy fertilizer. Africa has problems. Warmer climate should be wetter. Not in Zambia.

    Dead children mean higher birth rates.

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  288. @Mr. XYZ

    SPB & Odessa are both ports. Neither the Russian Empire nor Russia has many of those. Thus SPB has a reason to exist. SPB was the logical place for finance because of trade. It could have been an Amsterdam, Paris or Hamburg. London is perhaps too far a stretch.

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  289. Mr. XYZ says:
    @polaco

    Actually, I hate Bolsheviks and Communists! IMHO, it was a terrible tragedy that some/many Jews supported them! 🙁

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  290. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Daniel.I

    Unfortunately, they probably do. 🙁 IMHO, Jews should at least be consistent in regards to this by advocating the same kind of mass immigration that they advocate in regards to the West for Israel as well.

    • Replies: @Old Jew
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  291. @YetAnotherAnon

    Sacco and Vanzetti were amateurs. The Haymarket anarchist did a better job!

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  292. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Philip Owen

    The Russian Empire actually had several other parts: Tallinn/Reval, Riga, Nikolaev, Kherson, Mariupol, Yalta, Kerch, Novorossiysk, Sukhumi, Poti, and Batumi.

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  293. @EldnahYm

    There was direct support by landlords. Usually compassionate but not common. However, once people were evicted, the cost of their support fell to the parish. It was often cheaper, particularly for coastal communities to pay to send the paupers to North America, a journey of many days than feed them in the workhouses for many months.

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  294. @annamaria

    And Skripal was Steele’s source of names via Pablo Miller.

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  295. @Mr. XYZ

    The British plan was to attack Baku from Persia to stop the Germans taking the oil. We had air superiority. It was possible.

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  296. Skeptikal says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    Please do cite some military historians who assert that Germany “lucked out” in knocking France out.
    “Luck” would be if some factor such as the weather intervened to turn around an expected outcome.
    Not the facts on the ground that enabled a quick win, which I am sure have been thoroughly analyzed by military historians.

    Nothing Anatoly or Mr. XYZ has said counters my point that talking about a major historical event being “fluke” is just bizarre and ahistorical. As for the 10 failures to establish a Communist state compared to the 2 successes, again, a competent analyst will be able to explain why the two succeeded and the 10 failed. A concept such as “luck” or a “fluke” is magical thinking.

    I am just reading Richard Evans on the rise of Hitler; he does a rundown of the fascist impulses and regimes in other countries of Europe, yet points out some differences in the German situation that led to the outcome that we know. He doesn’t have to fall back on saying that it was just Hitler’s good luck! That is like explaining the plague via the activities of witches because you didn’t know about the Yersinia pestis bacterium.

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  297. Anatoly this was you on top form. I was on my way out of Unz. The racism is very high even if I am trying to see all sides.

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  298. @Contrast

    Good points. The posting of comments like yours suggests that thoughts of social reorganizations and “save what you can” are becoming more frequent and possibly acceptable.

    Interesting book, Mike Duncan, _The Storm Before the Storm_, 2017/10. History of the Late Roman Republic from roughly the Roman Republic’s high point — the defeat of Carthage — to just before its end, the time when Caesar, Pompey, and Crassus started their careers. Interesting parallels to Trump’s situation. One after another the rules of the established practice were violated to win a particular political contest. The violations became precedents and new violations took place. The entire set of incentives and the entire balance of the Roman Republic’s government gradually vanished after the end of the Carthaginian War, and was replaced with something that (on paper only) could be considered the Roman Republic.

    On the bright side, the Romans had always hated Kings, and they never did have a King. On the dark side, they had Emperors.

    Counterinsurgency

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  299. Dmitry says:
    @Contrast

    Russia ….less prosperous

    Russia is wealthy, but incomes are comparatively low, especially in nominal terms (which are the relevant terms for immigrants’ remittances, that transfer across exchange rates).

    Immigrants from places like Africa, want higher incomes (and possibly welfare) as a result of their immigration – as part of income they then plan send back to their family in Africa, where purchasing power will be much higher.

    For example, in nominal terms, MacDonald’s in Australia pays $18 an hour for a same job, that McDonald’s in Russia pays $1,90 an hour.

    So only a very eccentric African immigrant would try to go to Russia, when you can generate 9,5 times more remittances if you can attain the same job in Australia.

    And maybe Australia is difficult, but if they get to Germany or UK, MacDonald’s salary is still 6 times higher than in Russia.

    (This is beside the fact there isn’t a route for them to even get near Russia, without travelling through EU, where it would be far more desirable for them to stay).

    resilient against third-world immigration

    Russia receives large third-world immigration and second-world immigration, but only from “captive markets” or “captive labour sources”.

    From third-world, these are Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan.

    From second-world, these are Armenia, Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan.

    Immigrants from these countries come to Russia, because it is easy for them (although some countries like Turkmenistan and Ukraine try to complicate this emigration). There are open movement of labour with countries like Armenia and Uzbekistan.

    If they had a free choice, thene.g. probably most Uzbeks could prefer to immigrate to America or Australia, where they could generate higher remittances. But currently, Uzbeks can much more easily work in Russia.

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  300. Dmitry says:
    @annamaria

    future of Ukraine’s Jews would appear to be brighte

    Jewish demographics in Ukraine must have collapsed even more than for other nationalities of Ukraine, and must have accelerated collapse in the last few years.

    Young people with Jewish heritage mass emigrate to Russia and Israel since 2014. (Israel received some number like 80,000 new citizens from Ukraine on the Law of Return in the years 2014-2018, as you can be eligible for Israeli citizenship if you have Jewish heritage to the third-generation, or are married to someone who has).

    In addition, even Germany gives German citizenship to Ukrainian Jews, or Ukrainians with Jewish heritage (as an apology for its crimes in the Second World War). So tens of thousands of Ukrainian Jews have emigrated to live in Germany as German citizens.

    Fertility rates of Jews in Ukraine were as low as 1,4 already in the 1980s. In addition, intermarriage rates (Jews marrying representatives of other nationalities) were over 70%.

    So there will be a demographic collapse of the Jews there, which will be for these additional factors, even more extreme than demographic collapse currently is for Ukrainians and Russians in Ukraine.

    On the other hand, there will be a small layer of very very rich people in Ukraine with Jewish heritage (you can see some posting pictures of their palaces in Kiev on instagram).

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  301. Dmitry says:
    @songbird

    In California and New York – African Americans seem quite proletarian? (at least for my tourist eyes).

    And yet, their fertility rate is the lowest of all the races in those states. There might be a strong cultural transition to a “one child family model”.

    Somalis because their land seems like a natural hellhole – even just climatically. Of course, I would still deport them all because I am not crazy.

    They are Muslim, from a country with Islamic extremism, so they should not be allowed to immigrate for practical political reasons. Is it a good idea to have a community which could support Al-Shabaab, in Maine?

    On the other hand, Isak Dinesen praises Somalis, and especially she praises the manners of Somali women. Possibly, she has been romanticizing, however.

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  302. Old Jew says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    The American Jews are advocating for immigration. The Israeli Jews are not. Different populations with different values, No such thing as “The Jews”.

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  303. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Skeptikal

    This idea of a “fluke” in history is ridiculous and bizarre.

    I think “fluke” is the wrong word. But the outcomes of some major historical events were very uncertain and far from inevitable. Perhaps we should call it Karlin’s Historical Uncertainty Principle.

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  304. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Contrast

    The point is that clinging to the idea of securing White homelands in the West might lead to mental self-blockade. If White homelands are out of reach, then what? Counterinsurgency sounds nice but what if staving off flat-out genocide were all it could realistically achieve? It’s not so much about what is to be done, it’s more about under what banner and with what mindset.

    The mindset is what matters. If you had a white homeland then within a generation white liberals would destroy it. There were lots of white homelands (Britain, Germany, Sweden). White liberals wrecked them all.

    Race is not the crucial factor. As you say, it’s the mindset. White homelands as such won’t help at all. We need healthy societies. Whiteness is definitely no guarantee of a healthy society.

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  305. dfordoom says: • Website
    @polaco

    there were no socialist programmes and benefits during the Belle Epoque, yet Europe’s population was growing and Europe was as first world as could be.

    It was First World for some. For the poor it was Third World. It was the libertarian utopia – rich people paying very little tax and doing just great, poor people living in misery and squalor.

    And the seeds of the demographic decline of western European populations were already there by the mid-19th century.

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  306. dfordoom says: • Website
    @iffen

    Is that you, Thomas Sowell?

    If I identify as being Thomas Sowell then I am Thomas Sowell. Only a hateful bigot would deny that. Thomas Sowell is a social construct.

    • LOL: iffen
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  307. AP says:
    @annamaria

    The transformation wrought in Ukraine by the Maidan revolution has been an exhilarating roller coaster that has not bypassed Ukrainian Jewry, which is now in the midst of an exciting period of cultural revival paralleling that of the wider Ukrainian society

    So Jews prefer the new Ukraine to the old, just as Ukrainians do. So?

    Pinchuk is a long-time Clinton donor (he’s given an estimated $13 million to the Clinton Foundation since 2006, according to the New York Times)…

    Pinchuk was part of the Kuchma clan who were also behind Yanukovich.

    It’s funny that Ukrainian Jews play such a huge role in American politics. Pinchuk bankrolls the Clintons, now during the impeachment saga there is anti-Trump Ukrainian Jew Vindman versus the Jews behind Trump and Giuliani – Lev Parnas and Igor Furman:

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/23/politics/parnas-fruman-hustle-profit-access-giuliani/index.html

    ::::::::::::::

    BTW, Russia has had 3 or 4 Jewish Prime Ministers. Putin’s business partner in St. Petersburg, Nikolai Shamalov, is Jewish. Putin’s daughter married Shamalov’s son.

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  308. annamaria says:
    @Philip Owen

    New article on Sic Semper Tyrannis, with a focus on the faux Russiagate and real Ukrainegate (see also some very informative comments) https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2019/11/more-evidence-that-the-comey-fbi-was-a-malevolent-clown-show-by-larry-c-johnson.html#more

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  309. @S

    “I’ve sometimes thought it might make for an interesting fictional book plot regarding Genghis Khan ie if someone were to ever locate his still missing corpse, extract DNA from it, clone him, and then raise him in the modern art of warfare.”

    Yeah, because you heard Greg Cochran describe that exact story idea in one of his interviews with James Miller.

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  310. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Old Jew

    I meant that American Jews should also push for mass non-Jewish immigration to Israel if they insist on pushing for mass non-white immigration to the West.

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  311. Maciano says:
    @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    Why is that a plus?

    Also, even if Africans go 100x, what will be the result? Not much. They’re like the NPC continent.

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  312. @dfordoom

    Race is not the crucial factor. As you say, it’s the mindset. White homelands as such won’t help at all. We need healthy societies. Whiteness is definitely no guarantee of a healthy society.

    New England was, probably still is, about as Northeastern European WEIRD [1] as you can get. They’ve sponsored the Civil War, Reconstruction (perhaps the first serious attempt to reorganize an entire society to fit ideological/religions goals). New York City was founded by the Dutch, taken by the English, was as WEIRD as you can get, yet its leadership swamped its base population with immigrants from much less WEIRD parts of the world after the US Civil War. I make no comment on current events, you already know them. Obviously, WEIRD societies can fail badly.

    That doesn’t make the citizenry of WEIRD societies compatible with other societies, however. Race does matter, and (having encountered a few Anabaptist and Irish partisans/fanatics over the years in places where they predominate) I can say that so does ethnicity. WEIRD people don’t have extended kinship networks: kinship exists, but is weak. This can be traced back a very long way, to the Neolithic in fact [2]. WEIRDness is most likely genetic in character — not as aversion to cousin marriage, but rather as a fossil predominance of people who, given a free hand, would construct and maintain WEIRD societies.

    Surprisingly enough, attempts to introduce WEIRD societies to high kinship territories don’t make out well. The biggest example was the reversion, after several hundred years rule by WEIRD Europeans, of the Hellenistic southern shores of the Mediterranean to a completely different system after the Islamic conquests. Seems that the kinship nets and old way of doing things [3] had persisted under a Hellenistic and later Roman crust [4].

    The entire world is now undergoing the same open access that the Roman Empire gave to parts of Europe and the Mediterranean Basin. If kinship networks are allowed to, they can, have, and will displace WEIRD populations. You have to take that into consideration.

    Further, kinship societies are, if anything, even more competitive and invasive than WEIRD societies. There are several contemporary examples. I see frequent complains against the Jewish establishment, which is a kinship society. Consider that this group, frequently implied to be invincible and eternal, has been entirely displaced from the Middle East, rejected as thoroughly as the Greek diaspora, and this has happened recently. Obviously kinship societies are highly competitive both internally and externally. They are quite capable of displacing WEIRD societies.

    So that’s the problem you have. The idea of WEIRD people becoming what amounts to a kinship society might be feasible (consider various Anabaptists, Mormons, New Englanders (“Yankees”)), but they aren’t really all that good at it compared to ancestral kinship societies. I’d expect them to be eventually wiped out (as were the English populations of India, China, and Africa, who fortunately for them got a chance to retreat in moderately good order). Competition between societies are as fierce as any other competition between societies.

    Clearly, WEIRD people are losing badly just now. Historically, they’ve reorganized and recovered. Might happen this time, might not — the future is up for grabs.

    Counterinsurgency

    1] https://www2.psych.ubc.ca/~henrich/pdfs/WeirdPeople.pdf

    2] Kevin McDonald.
    _Individualism and the Western Liberal Tradition_

    3] You can trace Middle Eastern piety all the way back to the Sumerians.
    https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ancientpages.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2017%2F02%2Fblueeyessumer2.jpg&imgrefurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ancientpages.com%2F2017%2F02%2F23%2Fmysterious-sumerian-statues-big-blue-eyes-sign-gods%2F&tbnid=GD_dmg8acW-60M&vet=12ahUKEwjOs4eY9NzlAhUGbK0KHaUPCJsQMygHegUIARDsAQ..i&docid=L7758jXo4r4AGM&w=625&h=494&q=large%20eye%20%20face%20summerian%20gods&ved=2ahUKEwjOs4eY9NzlAhUGbK0KHaUPCJsQMygHegUIARDsAQ

    4] The Greeks and later Romans supported the Library of Alexandria. As soon as they left, no more funding. The locals had better things to do with their money.

    5] Colin Woodward.
    _American Nations_
    See map: http://www.colinwoodard.com/files/ColinWoodard_AmericanNations_map.pdf

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  313. @dfordoom

    Race is not the crucial factor. As you say, it’s the mindset. White homelands as such won’t help at all. We need healthy societies. Whiteness is definitely no guarantee of a healthy society.

    New England was, probably still is, about as Northeastern European WEIRD [1] as you can get. They’ve sponsored the Civil War, Reconstruction (perhaps the first serious attempt to reorganize an entire society to fit ideological/religions goals). New York City was founded by the Dutch, taken by the English, was as WEIRD as you can get, yet its leadership swamped its base population with immigrants from much less WEIRD parts of the world after the US Civil War. I make no comment on current events, you already know them. Obviously, WEIRD societies can fail badly.

    That doesn’t make the citizenry of WEIRD societies compatible with other societies, however. Race does matter, and (having encountered a few Anabaptist and Irish partisans/fanatics over the years in places where they predominate) I can say that so does ethnicity. WEIRD people don’t have extended kinship networks: kinship exists, but is weak. This can be traced back a very long way, to the Neolithic in fact [2]. WEIRDness is most likely genetic in character — not as aversion to cousin marriage, but rather as a fossil predominance of people who, given a free hand, would construct and maintain WEIRD societies.

    Surprisingly enough, attempts to introduce WEIRD societies to high kinship territories don’t make out well. The biggest example was the reversion, after several hundred years rule by WEIRD Europeans, of the Hellenistic southern shores of the Mediterranean to a completely different system after the Islamic conquests. Seems that the kinship nets and old way of doing things [3] had persisted under a Hellenistic and later Roman crust [4].

    The entire world is now undergoing the same open access that the Roman Empire gave to parts of Europe and the Mediterranean Basin. If kinship networks are allowed to, they can, have, and will displace WEIRD populations. You have to take that into consideration.

    Further, kinship societies are, if anything, even more competitive and invasive than WEIRD societies. There are several contemporary examples. I see frequent complains against the Jewish establishment, which is a kinship society. Consider that this group, frequently implied to be invincible and eternal, has been entirely displaced from the Middle East, rejected as thoroughly as the Greek diaspora, and this has happened recently. Obviously kinship societies are highly competitive both internally and externally. They are quite capable of displacing WEIRD societies.

    So that’s the problem you have. The idea of WEIRD people becoming what amounts to a kinship society might be feasible (consider various Anabaptists, Mormons, New Englanders (“Yankees”)), but they aren’t really all that good at it compared to ancestral kinship societies. I’d expect them to be eventually wiped out (as were the English populations of India, China, and Africa, who fortunately for them got a chance to retreat in moderately good order). Competition between societies are as fierce as any other competition between societies.

    Clearly, WEIRD people are losing badly just now. Historically, they’ve reorganized and recovered. Might happen this time, might not — the future is up for grabs.

    Counterinsurgency

    1] https://www2.psych.ubc.ca/~henrich/pdfs/WeirdPeople.pdf

    2] Kevin McDonald.
    _Individualism and the Western Liberal Tradition_

    3] You can trace Middle Eastern piety all the way back to the Sumerians.
    https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ancientpages.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2017%2F02%2Fblueeyessumer2.jpg&imgrefurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ancientpages.com%2F2017%2F02%2F23%2Fmysterious-sumerian-statues-big-blue-eyes-sign-gods%2F&tbnid=GD_dmg8acW-60M&vet=12ahUKEwjOs4eY9NzlAhUGbK0KHaUPCJsQMygHegUIARDsAQ..i&docid=L7758jXo4r4AGM&w=625&h=494&q=large%20eye%20%20face%20summerian%20gods&ved=2ahUKEwjOs4eY9NzlAhUGbK0KHaUPCJsQMygHegUIARDsAQ

    4] The Greeks and later Romans supported the Library of Alexandria. As soon as they left, no more funding. The locals had better things to do with their money.

    5] Colin Woodward.
    _American Nations_
    See map: http://www.colinwoodard.com/files/ColinWoodard_AmericanNations_map.pdf

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  314. @dfordoom

    Race is not the crucial factor. As you say, it’s the mindset. White homelands as such won’t help at all. We need healthy societies. Whiteness is definitely no guarantee of a healthy society.

    New England was, probably still is, about as Northeastern European WEIRD [1] as you can get. They’ve sponsored the Civil War, Reconstruction (perhaps the first serious attempt to reorganize an entire society to fit ideological/religions goals). New York City was founded by the Dutch, taken by the English, was as WEIRD as you can get, yet its leadership swamped its base population with immigrants from much less WEIRD parts of the world after the US Civil War. I make no comment on current events, you already know them. Obviously, WEIRD societies can fail badly.

    That doesn’t make the citizenry of WEIRD societies compatible with other societies, however. Race does matter, and (having encountered a few Anabaptist and Irish partisans/fanatics over the years in places where they predominate) I can say that so does ethnicity. WEIRD people don’t have extended kinship networks: kinship exists, but is weak. This can be traced back a very long way, to the Neolithic in fact [2]. WEIRDness is most likely genetic in character — not as aversion to cousin marriage, but rather as a fossil predominance of people who, given a free hand, would construct and maintain WEIRD societies.

    Surprisingly enough, attempts to introduce WEIRD societies to high kinship territories don’t make out well. The biggest example was the reversion, after several hundred years rule by WEIRD Europeans, of the Hellenistic southern shores of the Mediterranean to a completely different system after the Islamic conquests. Seems that the kinship nets and old way of doing things [3] had persisted under a Hellenistic and later Roman crust [4].

    The entire world is now undergoing the same open access that the Roman Empire gave to parts of Europe and the Mediterranean Basin. If kinship networks are allowed to, they can, have, and will displace WEIRD populations. You have to take that into consideration.

    Further, kinship societies are, if anything, even more competitive and invasive than WEIRD societies. There are several contemporary examples. I see frequent complaints against the Jewish establishment, which is a kinship society. Consider that this group, frequently implied to be invincible and eternal, has been entirely displaced from the Middle East, rejected as thoroughly as the Greek diaspora, and this has happened recently. Obviously kinship societies are highly competitive both internally and externally. They are quite capable of displacing WEIRD societies.

    So that’s the problem you have. The idea of WEIRD people becoming what amounts to a kinship society might be feasible (consider various Anabaptists, Mormons, New Englanders (“Yankees” [5])), but they aren’t really all that good at it compared to ancestral kinship societies. Remember how thoroughly the Southern shore of the Mediterranean recovered after the Romans left. I’d expect them to be eventually wiped out (as were the English populations of India, China, and Africa, who fortunately for them got a chance to retreat in moderately good order). Competition within societies are as fierce as any other competition between societies.
    So, yes, WEIRD population does not mean a healthy society. However, mixing a WEIRD population with a kinship based population means no WEIRD society at all, and the out-competition of genetically WEIRD nuclear families by the kinship network. One man cannot win against battalions. WEIRD people might be better at understanding nature, but that doesn’t matter much in competition within a society, only in competition between societies [6].
    Clearly, WEIRD people are losing badly just now. Historically, they’ve reorganized and recovered. Might happen this time, might not — the future is up for grabs.

    Counterinsurgency

     

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  315. S says:
    @Herbert West

    Nope. Never heard of either person. It’s not surprising if others might of thought of the same thing.

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  316. songbird says:
    @Dmitry

    In California and New York – African Americans seem quite proletarian?

    This comports with my observations as well, but, when I contrast what I have seen of Harlem with what I have heard of its past, I wonder if the liberalization of welfare, hasn’t been very disastrous for blacks. Perhaps, these regional differences in the qualities of blacks were more notable in the past?

    Is it a good idea to have a community which could support Al-Shabaab, in Maine?

    Putting them there really just seems political. Maine is kind of an economically depressed area. A lot of its economy is seasonal – fishing, tourism. Some local, pozzed politician said the welfare money of the Somalis would be good for the local economy.

    Been a while since I read Dinesen, I think some of the words she put in the mouths of blacks were perhaps overly poetical, but I seem to recall she touched on Somali clan warfare.

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  317. @polaco

    Yes, Russia is infamous for supporting pro-EU politicians. /s

    Poles contributed 10%-20% of high-ranking Cheka/OGPU through to the mid-1920s (including, ofc, Dzerzhinsky) and the 1st Revolutionary Regiment “Red Warsaw” helped put down anti-Bolshevik revolts in Moscow, Yaroslavl, and Tambov. But do tell us more about whitewashing.

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  318. Skeptikal says:
    @Counterinsurgency

    IMO this comment is really weird.
    Weird is an adolescent value judgment of some kind.
    I have read Woodard’s American Nations—wonderful book—and he does not traffic in useless notions such as “weird.” His map also does not support any concept of “weird.”

    If you want to be taken seriouslyl (love that formulation—someone here used it recently on a perfectly normal American female), don’t rely on punctuating your sentences and ideas with “WEIRD.” It makes you look intellectually helpless and hapless.

    • Replies: @AP, @Counterinsurgency
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  319. Skeptikal says:
    @songbird

    ” Some local, pozzed politician said the welfare money of the Somalis would be good for the local economy.”

    OMG, who could be so stupid?
    In fact, the Somalis are stretching local charity and other resources beyond the breaking point.

    Meanwhile, populations that would actually bring more cash into circulation in the local economy—I speak of retirees with Social Security benefits, not to mention their private pensions as well, to spend on themselves and their grandchildren—are exactly a demographic that will stay away in droves from a community overrun with destitute Africans.

    • Agree: songbird
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  320. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Why were the Polonkadonks so attracted to Bolshevism? Was it because they were oppressed by Tsarist Russia just like the Jews were?

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  321. Dmitry says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    I think this is one of the main activities of the liberal American Jews in Israel. (I will add a MORE tag as it is offtopic).

    [MORE]
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  322. AaronB says:

    Sir Charles Eliot on the Somalis-

    It is certainly to be desired that we should utilise the Somalis. There can be no doubt that they are the most intelligent race in the Protectorate, though it may be urged with some justice that they are also proud, treacherous, fanatical, and vindictive. Too much stress, I think, is often laid on these bad qualities, and it is certain that the average Englishman has little sympathy for the Somali. He tolerates a black man who admits his inferiority, and even those who show a good fight and give in ; but he cannot tolerate dark colour combined with an intelligence in any way equal to his own. This is the secret of the almost universal dislike of the Babu, and it reappears in the unpopularity of the Somali among East African officials. The Somali are not willing to agree to the simple plan of having a fair fight and then shaking hands when defeated, but constantly indicate that they think themselves our equals or superiors, and not unfrequently prove it.

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  323. AP says:
    @Skeptikal

    WEIRD is a technical term that stands for “Western Educated Industrial Rich and Democratic.”

    Everything you want to know about WEIRD:

    https://theindependentwhig.com/haidt-passages/haidt/weird-morality-and-style-of-thought/

     

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  324. Quintus says:

    The one thing that surprised the most is how big the population of France in the Middle Ages was vis-a-vis the rest of Europe. How can that be?

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  325. Dmitry says:
    @songbird

    I found PDF of the book, so you can search the text for the word “Somali”.
    https://www.fadedpage.com/link.php?file=20170717-a5.pdf

    Her servant was Somali, and he is one of the main heroes in the story.

    She describes Somalis as a roaming, warrior cossacks of Africa.

    “Your behaviour to them affects them strongly, in fact, you can hardly move without affecting the fierce burning prigs of the desert in one way or the other, and, very often, not without deeply hurting them. They have a keen sense of gratitude and will also bear malice for ever. A benefit, like an offence or a slight, is written in stone in their hearts.”

    Somali women she describes as being like some natural princesses, with very good manners.

    “Their own clothes played a tremendous part in their lives, which was no wonder, since to them they were all at once material of war, booty of war, and symbols of victory, like conquered banners.

    Their husband, the Somali, is abstinent by nature, indifferent to food and drink and to personal comfort, hard and spare as the country he comes from: woman is his luxury. For her he is insatiably covetous, she is to him the supreme good of life: horses, camels and stock may come in and be desirable, too, but they can never outweigh the wives.

    The Somali women encourage their men in both inclinations of their nature. They scorn any softness in a man with much cruelty; and with great personal sacrifices they hold up their own price. These women cannot acquire a pair of slippers in any possible way except through a man, they cannot own themselves but must needs belong to some male, to a father, a brother or a husband, but they are still the one supreme prize of life.

    It is a surprising thing, and to the honour of both parties, what amounts of silks, gold, amber and coral the Somali women get out of their men.”

    Overall, she admires very much – especially the women.

    The Somali system was at once a natural necessity and a fine art, it was both religion, strategy, and ballet, and was practised in allrespects with due devotion, discipline and dexterity. The great sweetness of it lay in the play of opposite forces within it.

    Behind the eternal principle of refutation, there was much generosity; behind the pedantry what risibility, and contempt of death. These daughters of a fighting race went through their ceremonial of primness as through a great graceful war-dance; butter would not melt in their mouth, neither would they rest till they had drunk the heart’s blood of their adversary, they figured like three ferocious young she-wolves in seemly sheep’s clothing.

    The Somali are wiry people, hardened in deserts and on the sea. Heavy weights of life, strenuous pressure, high waves, and long ages, must have gone to turn their women into such hard, shining amber.

    • Agree: songbird
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  326. Great article! One thing missing is the dominionist/7 Mountains Christians, and freaked out neo-nazi types, who are breeding at a staggering rate. Within a 20 mile radius of where I live, I know of at least 7 families with at least 7 children, 1 family with 9, and one with 11. Somebody oughta look into this. (These are folks who believe they’re addressing the disappearance of white people, along with belief that the more kids they have, the faster they can take control of the world.)

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  327. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Dmitry

    Stopping deportations of African asylum seekers to Rwanda, while certainly noble, isn’t that significant in the grand scheme of things considering that there are only tens of thousands of them in total. If the New Israel Fund would have actually advocated in favor of Israel accepting hundreds of thousands or even millions of non-Jewish immigrants, then what they would be doing would be comparable to what is currently happening in the West–where whites are on track to lose their majorities in countries such as the US, Canada, possibly Australia, and maybe even some Western European countries as well.

    • Agree: Thulean Friend
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  328. songbird says:
    @Dmitry

    Probably easier to admire them in East Africa than in Minneapolis or Lewiston.

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  329. Dmitry says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    Israel received 3 times more Sudanese and Eritrean immigrants than all EU countries combined to 2011. And EU has 62 times Israel’s population.

    So it is significant and you see the illegal immigrants quite a lot in Israel (at least when you are in cities like Tel Aviv).* In per capita terms, there will be more illegal immigration in Israel than in most Western European countries.

    There is differential policy though – illegal immigrants from countries (like Ukraine/Georgia) that Israel has diplomatic relations with, can be deported quite brutally/efficiently, but illegal immigrants from countries that do not recognize Israel (Sudan, Pakistan, Eritrea, etc) are staying there as long as they choose.

    For a while, they could be imprisoned arbitrarily to Holot detention for 9 months – but Israel’s Supreme Court has banned that now (after New Israel Fund challenged), so they are free to stay.

    In addition, they have free access to Israel’s medical and education system, including universities. A large proportion of births in Tel Aviv are from these groups (and also most of the crimes in the Southern parts of the city).

    It costs a lot of tax, contributes to increasing housing costs, crowding of hospitals, and closing of schools in the city (to make new schools for the children of illegal immigrants). In addition, the crime statistics in the city skyrocketed since the arrival of the illegal immigrants. I don’t think it is positive for Israel.

    On the other hand, there is some cheap labour for Israeli businesses and hotels as a result.

    deportations of African asylum seekers to Rwanda, while certainly noble,

    This is not deportation – voluntary immigration in exchange for payment. Israel deports Ukrainians and Georgians, but it cannot deport citizens of states it does not have diplomatic relationships with.

    So citizens of these states are not deported, but there is a program where they can voluntarily emigrate to a third country in exchange for payment of a few thousand dollars.

    In the case of Eritreans and Sudanese, they often do not want to return to their country, so Israel had an agreement with Rwanda, where they could choose to go to Rwanda instead. However, after this pressure from human rights groups, then Rwanda has said it withdraws from the agreement.

    * Even in Jaffa, you can see many are working/living there now (I wonder what Arabs think, as this was not like this when I visited last in Israel in 2018).

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  330. Dmitry says:
    @songbird

    easier to admire them in East Africa than in Minneapolis

    Isak Dinesen was living in Africa in 1914-1931, when Kenya was English colony (Somalia was Italian).

    So, even Africa has changed vastly since that time. In that time, the population of these nationalities was vastly smaller, and they still lived almost completely traditional and romantic lifestyle, although with European controlled government.

    The area seems to become much more chaotic and dystopian over the 20th century. And also I doubt anything like Al-Shabaab existed in Dinesen’s epoch of her African life.

    I mean, would you go on holiday to Somalia today? Yet in Dinesen’s epoch, it seemed safe for the European woman to travel all over the countryside by herself and go and even stay in tents of different African tribes. The people never treat her badly, rob her, or kidnap her – the only dangerous thing seems to be diseases, lions and hippopotamus.

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  331. @TheTotallyAnonymous

    On re-reading your comment.

    You haven’t had serious exposure to women. Take a look at almost any divorce. The kids ordinarily get hashed, and so does the husband. Women can go full bore Medea or Clytemnestra if they think they have been treated badly. That’s one reason to work hard at having a good marriage — all the alternatives are far worse.

    Counterinsurgency

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  332. Manu says:

    Anatoly – cool post, but you lost me at point #25. 100B people, really? Perhaps if you had 100B cave-dwelling, loincloth-wearing plant eaters. But not 100B people enjoying current standards of living and current rates of consumption. We are already living beyond the limits of what this poor planet of ours can sustain.

    Check out: https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-boundaries/planetary-boundaries/about-the-research/the-nine-planetary-boundaries.html and https://qz.com/1347735/how-many-people-can-earth-support-its-carrying-capacity-isnt-infinite/.

    • Replies: @Counterinsurgency
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  333. songbird says:
    @Dmitry

    It’s hard to wrap one’s head around the differences between 2019 Africa and 1919 Africa. What would that be – about a tenth the population, or close enough? And imagine the differences in attitude – totally differential, subservient in their own country. Nowadays, Somalis invade and straightaway join a hostile, parasitical coalition.

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  334. S says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Subotai had just the right combination of brilliance and utter ruthlessness to win his many victories.

    It was a good thing he felt compelled to return home to Mongolia when Ögedei Khan died in 1241 which gave the unconquered portions of Europe some much needed respite.

    • Replies: @melanf
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  335. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Dmitry

    Israel received 3 times more Sudanese and Eritrean immigrants than all EU countries combined to 2011. And EU has 62 times Israel’s population.

    Yes, and Israel subsequently built a big, beautiful wall to keep out all of the diversity. Had Israel been willing to accept several tens of thousands of non-Jewish, non-Jewishly connected people every year, then it would have been more notable.

    Just ask yourself how many non-Jewish, non-Jewishly connected immigrants Israel has ever accepted and then compare that with the number of non-white immigrants that the West has accepted over the last several decades–and then adjust these figures for population.

    • Agree: Thulean Friend
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  336. melanf says:
    @S

    For inspiration – the monument to Subotai in Tuva

    • LOL: S
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  337. @Anatoly Karlin

    1) Territory still plays some role (I’m pretty sure that the fact that Germany had one of the weakest baby booms in Europe is not independent of the fact that it was choke-full of refugees from the lost eastern territories), and it might again play a huge role in the coming AoIM, should it happen. It also matters a lot in terms of independence – Germany is probably the most dependent on exports among all the major powers, and it’s probably not a coincidence.

    2) This is to a very large extent the responsibility of Russia’s leaders in 1914, who pursued a needlessly aggressive foreign policy in pursuit of stupid goals. Russia was already big enough (maybe too big, demographically speaking – did it need tens of millions of hostile Poles and others inside its borders?), and with a low population density (even relative to carrying capacity), but it was still obsessed with expansion.

    Sure, the Germans have been definitively driven out of Eastern Europe, but their population and GDP is only perhaps 20% lower than it would have otherwise been.

    It might be considered a victory of sorts for Germany, had they remained independent. They are not. So I fail to see how what happened could be thought to be better for them than Russia becoming a hyperpower next door to them. Although it’s possible that such a Russian hyperpower would’ve annexed huge chunks of eastern German territory (though that would have required a major war, so maybe WW1, just a few years or decades later..?), and it might have broken up Germany altogether (as was proposed by Tsar Alexander III in a private conversation with one of his ministers), but demographically speaking Germany would probably be better off (the Tsar wouldn’t have ethnically cleansed East Prussia and Silesia), its immigration situation wouldn’t be any worse (likely better), and it’s not independent anyway. German national pride would also be higher in that alternative scenario. I fail to see how Germany is somehow better off now than in an alternative reality without world wars.

    I think it’s more sensible to just say that demographically speaking or in terms of the size of the economy relative to world economy, Russia lost the most in the 20th century. Still, it became one of only two nuclear superpowers (China might close the gap later), and it’s one of the very few truly independent great powers today, so its status is hardly low, even as it is. Germany certainly lost more since 1914: it lost its independence, its national pride, huge areas historically settled by Germans, it’s a mere shadow of what it once was. Russia at least is still an independent power center with one of the strongest militaries in the world, relative to 1914 (the actual reality, as opposed to potential) it’s actually stronger now than it was back then.

    • Agree: Denis
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  338. @Manu

    See science fiction book:
    J. T. Bass
    _Half past Human_

    for a plausible look at a post human society with about 10^12 humans — sort of. Bass was a medical student, and assumed tht such a world woult be managed with the all the empathy of a 1960s urban hospital / city government.

    Counterinsurgency

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  339. Dmitry says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    built a big, beautiful wall to keep

    It stopped human trafficking route across the Sinai.
    However, in relation to African immigration. It was:
    1. Many years too late – and illegal immigrants now cannot be deported.
    2. Illegal immigrants can just arrive enter Israel by plane now.

    For example, after a wall was completed, the illegal immigrants were almost all men. However, today illegal immigrants are quite gender balanced (men and women), with extremely high fertility. All these Sudanese (and I believe Somali) women you see in Tel Aviv in Muslim costumes – they must have arrived in plane as they were not described until recently.

    Yet when I walked through South Tel Aviv in 2018, there were Sudanese (maybe Somali) women in large numbers, and children all over the streets. Even girls (who are perhaps 8 years old) wearing burka/hijab.

    keep out all of the diversity.

    I think Israel is the most diverse country I have been to yet (and I have visited America, etc). There’s a problem of people talking about countries they have not visited.

    been willing to accept several tens of thousands of non-Jewish, non-Jewishly connected people every year, then it would have been more notable.

    There are tens of thousands of Christian Filipinos, Colombians, Ukrainians (although Ukrainians are being deported since then), etc.

    Again it’s problem of people talking about countries they do not interact with. Last time I was in Israel, I was surprised to be walking behind groups of Uzbek workers.

    then compare that with the number of non-white immigrants that the West has accepted over the last several decades

    Well, UK, for example, is still 90% white, and is definitely not going to collapse anytime soon (For example, Hindus in the UK, become perfect middle class citizens of the country, although the Muslims are usually much more of a problem there). On the other hand, Israel is about 30% white and 80% immigrant, and feels like it could collapse from a panoply of too many strange races, religions and cultures.

    Both countries will require a more selective immigration system. However, in UK case, the country will probably survive some previous bad decisions. In Israel, it’s more of a “too much multiracial, multicultural, multireligious chaos”, has already become very difficult for daily life there.

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  340. Mr. Hack says:
    @AP

    You must have broken “Annamaria’s” heart, or at least her composure by pointing out that prominent Jews abound within Russia as well, to this day. Poor, poor Annamaria, she’ll have to learn to adjust her conspiracy theories to allign with reality or sulk immeasurably in her newfound knowledge. 🙁

    • Replies: @annamaria, @annamaria
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  341. Anon 2 says:
    @Rattus Norwegius

    Re: News tidbits

    Thank you!

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  342. iffen says:
    @Dmitry

    they want to impose the same political views in America and in Israel.

    This is true.

    I have noticed a massive lobbying effort by them to get the US to apply the same tactics at our southern border as the Israelis apply at the Gaza border.

    • LOL: reiner Tor
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  343. annamaria says:
    @Mr. Hack

    “…conspiracy theories..”

    — Here is the original thought of “AP” (post No 140): “It was not an advantage for Ukraine to have all of those Russians in its borders.”

    Not to be impolite toward Mr. Hack, Mazel Tov to you, Mr. Hack.
    Mazel Tov to Mr. Hack with the liberating transformation of Ukraine into a banderite-zionist client state. Enjoy your advantage of having all those non-Russians within Ukraine’s borders. What a glorious time for the Kaganat of Nuland! (former Ukraine)

    https://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-news-and-politics/290021/from-ukraine-to-israel-and-back-again

    When Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in Kyiv this week to meet with the country’s new president, Volodymyr Zelensky, it was the Israeli prime minister’s first official meeting with another world leader of Jewish descent. …

    I [Vladislav Davidzon] have personally heard on numerous occasions from nationalist members of Ukrainian [banderite? neo-nazi?] volunteer battalions who tell me that Israel, like Ukraine, is, “surrounded by enemies while keeping a modern economy going,” and therefore, “to be emulated.”

    The context: “Israel Is Arming Ukraine’s Blatantly Neo-Nazi Militia, the Azov Battalion” https://imemc.org/article/israel-is-arming-ukraines-blatantly-neo-nazi-militia-the-azov-battalion/

    More on the tender feelings between zionists and banderites: “Netanyahu Meets With Head Of Ukrainian Party That Includes Neo-Nazis” https://forward.com/fast-forward/427430/netanyahu-meets-with-head-of-ukrainian-party-that-includes-neo-nazis/

    Birds of a feather flock together.

    • LOL: Mr. Hack
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  344. iffen says:
    @Old Jew

    No such thing as “The Jews”.

    Does this mean that there is no Jew York Times?

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  345. Denis says:
    @reiner Tor

    Agree with the second half of your comment, disagree with the first, especially point 2).

    Germany is really only better off demographically and economically in comparison with post-WW2 Russia, in reality Germany was utterly recked by the World Wars and the accompanying massacres. Unlike Russia and China, it is extremely questionable how Germany could ever possibly become a great power again, given its current circumstances.

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  346. Denis says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Germany could easily have become the global economic superpower had it not embarked on the ludicrous stupidity of the 2 World Wars.

    • Agree: iffen
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  347. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Denis

    In such a scenario, Germany would have been the top dog in Central and Western Europe but certainly not in Europe overall due to Russia being much more of an economic superpower than Germany is in a scenario where Russia never actually goes Red/Bolshevik.

    • Replies: @Denis
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  348. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    I meant “ports” rather than “parts” here.

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  349. Denis says:
    @Counterinsurgency

    So the reason you work hard at having a good marriage is because you’re afraid your wife will murder your kids if you don’t?

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  350. @Denis

    How so? Even if Russia vanished off the map, it would have been directly comparable in population/GDP to Japan if it had, but Japan never did become a global economic superpower.

    • Replies: @iffen, @Denis
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  351. Denis says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    Germany would clearly have had competitors and peers, but a lot of things would have to go just right for Russia to displace Germany as the dominant power in Europe if Germany had managed to attain that position in the first place. And Germany could very easily have reduced much of eastern Europe to economic vassalage if WW1 had not happened.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
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  352. iffen says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    They could have chipped away at their constraints if they had had patience. They could have even ended up with the parts of Russia that had substantial German population, not to mention everywhere else.

    Austria

    We’s all Germans now!

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  353. @Denis

    Eh, how? Even in 1914 was a comparatively small country in the middle of Europe, totally dependent on exports to other states (most of them increasingly antagonistic) and therefore potentially very vulnerable to protectionism. Nothing like the huge domestic market of the US, not many natural resources either. Colonial empire was mostly worthless.
    I don’t think there was a conscious decision by Bethmann Hollweg etc. to “embark” on a world war in 1914 (though their behaviour was quite irresponsible and reckless), but the imperialists who eventually came to argue during WW1 that Germany needed to control its own continental bloc if it wanted to stay truly independent and become a world power on the same scale as the US, Russia and the British empire were probably correct.

    • Replies: @iffen, @Mitleser
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  354. iffen says:
    @German_reader

    Eh, how?

    Human capital

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  355. @iffen

    Russia potentially had plenty of human capital as well (even the writer of the surviving part of Generalplan Ost recognized this in his own warped way, arguing that Russia was especially dangerous, because the Russian peasantry contained “Nordic types” who had proven themselves as capable engineers during industrialization). And in much larger numbers, also vast natural resources.
    So in those fundamentals Ak is quite correct imo. He might underestimate the problems arising from the political system of the Tsarist empire and national issues though, at least I can’t recall him ever having gone into the details of how Russia should have dealt with those serious problems, if WW1 hadn’t happened.

    • Replies: @iffen
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  356. annamaria says:
    @Mr. Hack

    What was the reason for your joyful LOL? Was it the Netanyahu’s brotherly visit to Kyiv or Israelis’ brotherly support for banderite volunteers?

    Your country of Ukraine has been degraded to a banderite-zionist client state, yet you continue peddling childish stuff about bad Russian wolf. Who needs Russians when you have your Chalupas & Kolomojsky & Vindmans laboring hand-in-hand with the whole flowerbed of ziocons such as the Kagans?

    Here is your bright future: While the Russian language is a no-no in Ukraine, both Yiddish and Hebrew are welcome: http://www.votezion.org.ua/en/u-sionistskoyi-federatsiyi-ukrayini-z-yavivsya-kanal-i-grupa-v-telegram/

    At present, ZFU [ Zionist Federation of Ukraine] carries out the following projects: The Hebrew Speaking Club in Kyiv, Chernivtsi and Melitopol. This year it is planned to open clubs in Kharkiv and Lviv….

    At the same time in Lviv: https://www.rferl.org/a/critics-blast-lviv-ban-on-russian-language-culture/29500756.html

    The passage of the moratorium on Russian-language content came as the city of Lviv opened its 25th annual book forum…

    Mazel Tov, Mr. Hack.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
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  357. Jimi says:
    @Skeptikal

    Texas, Colorado, Washington and Oregon

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  358. iffen says:
    @German_reader

    I can’t recall him ever having gone into the details of how Russia should have dealt with those serious problems

    No, he hasn’t, unless you count “Monarchy Good.”

    • Replies: @German_reader
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  359. Mr. Hack says:
    @annamaria

    Who needs Russians when you have your Chalupas & Kolomojsky & Vindmans laboring hand-in-hand with the whole flowerbed of ziocons such as the Kagans?

    So, you’re equating the perniciousness of Russian interference within Ukraine with that of the ziocons.You’re right on track, tovarishch! 🙂

    Who needs Russians is how most Ukrainians feel today towards their thieving and murdering”brothers” to the north!

    • Replies: @annamaria, @annamaria
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  360. Denis says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I’m glad you brought up Japan, it’s precisely by comparing Germany to Japan that I reached my conclusion.

    Consider:

    Germany’s population in 1914: 65.8 mil.

    Japan’s population in 1914: ~54 mil.

    Germany’s economy in 1913: ~237.3 bil.

    Japan’s economy in 1913: ~71. bil.

    At the start of WW1, Germany had a substantially larger population than Japan, and had a substantially greater landmass with which to house its population. Yet, today, Japan’s population (>126 mil.) has grown to be almost 50% bigger than that of Germany. Despite this demographic reversal, Japan’s economy is not proportionately larger than that of Germany; its gdp ppp is 5.7 tril. while Germany’s is 4.3 tril. This indicates that German workers are more productive than those of Japan. Yet, Japanese workers themselves are so productive that for a time their economy was second only to that of America, and left all others (except Germany) utterly in the dust. Japan did indeed come very close to becoming a global economic superpower.

    Consider then what the world would look like if Germany had not suffered the population losses of the wars and the massacres that accompanied them, and what its economy would be like had it not been wrecked by those wars and the treaties that ended them. If Germany were able to continue its massive economic miracle and population expansion, it’s entirely possible that it would have become the dominant economic power in Europe, and eventually the world.

    Unlike Japan, which has been unable to reduce its neighbours to economic colonies, Germany is able to do that even today via the EU, despite all its setbacks. Germany’s economic advantage over eastern Europe would likely be even greater had it (Germany) not been trashed epically, and it could well have made the Balkans, Scandinavia, the middle east, and southern Europe into German playgrounds, solving the need for export markets. I suspect that fear of this was one of the reasons for Britain’s defensive posture towards Germany in the lead-up to the war.

    Finally, although Germany was probably further along in the demographic transition than Japan was, it could have continued, or even accelerated, its population growth with a method Japan has never been willing to use; by attracting immigrants. Germany could have pulled in immigrants from other European nations with ease, and was already doing so to a limited extent.

    Basically, imagine Germany with 50% more land, continuous economic growth, most of Europe as vassal states, and a population the size of Russia’s. The power that such a country would have would be massive.

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  361. @iffen

    No, he hasn’t, unless you count “Monarchy Good.”

    Have to agree about that. I don’t find AK’s view that the Tsarist system was basically sound convincing, imo a state where leftist revolutionaries manage to murder several thousand officials (and where elites can’t come up with much more than repression as a solution…and then are careless enough to stumble into a major war over Balkan issues) can’t be regarded as all that stable. Maybe there would have been a path to successful reform without the war, but it’s far from certain imo.
    That reminds me that Ak still hasn’t reviewed that book by McMeekin about the Russian revolution (which supposedly blames it all on bad weather)…hopefully he’ll still do that.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
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  362. @Denis

    How, exactly? Germany has “reduced much of eastern Europe to economic vassalage” of a sort today, that’s doesn’t translate to political control.

    German TFR fell to close to replacement level rates by the 1920s, which capped out its maximum population at well less than 100 million. It would have needed to maintain a threefold GDP per capita advantage over Russia (just within current borders!) just to maintain economic parity, assuming absolutely no convergence of Russian incomes whatsoever. A ludicrous scenario that was only realizable under Communist economics.

    Yet, Japanese workers themselves are so productive that for a time their economy was second only to that of America, and left all others (except Germany) utterly in the dust.

    “Utterly in the dust” is stretching it to bursting point.

    It was a distant second to the US. Though sure, some hysterics with no grasp on demographics briefly thought otherwise.

    Basically, imagine Germany with 50% more land, continuous economic growth, most of Europe as vassal states, and a population the size of Russia’s.

    Even a Germany that avoided all its wars would have a population of ~90M instead of 82M (assuming similar proportional emigration). Just to match Russia’s current, Communism-halved, population, it would need to add many tens of millions of immigrants. Which is ludicrously unrealistic, and besides, those countries would themselves be much richer than they are without Communism, with no huge incentives to emigrate in large numbers.

    Only chance for Germany to become a global economic superpower in 20th century:

    1. Germanize tens of millions of Slavs: 200M*25%, or whatever the Generalplan Ost ratio was supposed to be = eventually 50M –> 130M Germans.
    2. Make sure NatSoc mores stick, maintaining TFR at 3 children per woman and maintaining 1960s US like pop growth rates indefinitely.
    3. 200M-250M Germans by 2000. That’s =~ the number of White Americans today, so would indeed qualify as global economic superpower.

    • Agree: AP, Mr. XYZ
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  363. @Dmitry

    I have seen black africans working on construction sites in Moscow. 2014 though.

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  364. @German_reader

    I’ll come round to it.

    See Planned Reviews: https://akarlin.com/books/

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  365. iffen says:
    @Denis

    Axe-shul-lee we need to amend it to a global superpower rather than the.

    • Replies: @Denis
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  366. @Denis

    The Berlin to Baghdad railway, by now, with 4 tracks extending to the UAE and long high speed sections would have given Germany a very important economic base. Germany and Japan were early with technical education, hence the productivity. Up to WW2, British and US chemists expected to read German to stay at the leading edge.

    • Replies: @Denis
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  367. annamaria says:
    @Mr. Hack

    “So, you’re equating…”
    — Please, don’t project — this is a poor habit characteristic for Israelis.

    Here is your star activist Mr. Vindman, a Ukrainian “refugee” who grew up in Little Odessa among “all the Russian and Ukrainian immigrants, many of them Jewish, like the Vindmans.” https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/11/huge-schiff-witness-vindham-testified-that-he-thought-presidents-policy-was-wrong-so-he-advised-ukrainians-to-ignore-the-president/

    Somehow you have missed this morsel of information: http://www.votezion.org.ua/en/u-sionistskoyi-federatsiyi-ukrayini-z-yavivsya-kanal-i-grupa-v-telegram/

    At present, ZFU [ Zionist Federation of Ukraine] carries out the following projects: The Hebrew Speaking Club in Kyiv, Chernivtsi and Melitopol. This year it is planned to open clubs in Kharkiv and Lviv….

    while the banderite purists in Lviv ban the Russian language: https://www.rferl.org/a/critics-blast-lviv-ban-on-russian-language-culture/29500756.html
    Mazel Tov! Mr. Hack.

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  368. iffen says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    that’s doesn’t translate to political control.

    They run the EU. What the f*** do you want? The Chancellor can unilaterally make devastating decisions without any consultations and make them stick.

    • LOL: Denis
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  369. Denis says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    How, exactly? Germany has “reduced much of eastern Europe to economic vassalage” of a sort today, that’s doesn’t translate to political control.

    Well, not direct political control, but the German government is clearly the most powerful voice in the European Union, and this stems from its dominant economic position within that Union. Since America is currently dominant in Europe, Eastern Europe’s subordinate status translates into subordination to America, but if America had never entered the picture as a result of the wars, then it doesn’t take a huge leap to see those same eastern states being subordinate to Germany instead.

    German TFR fell to close to replacement level rates by the 1920s, which capped out its maximum population at well less than 100 million. It would have needed to maintain a threefold GDP per capita advantage over Russia (just within current borders!) just to maintain economic parity, assuming absolutely no convergence of Russian incomes whatsoever. A ludicrous scenario that was only realizable under Communist economics.

    Grant the TFR, but I think that a slightly above replacement growth + immigration could have easily increased the population of Germany substantially. I doubt that the cap rests at 100 million. I think Germany could easily have had a population greater than that of Japan, and possibly as great as modern Russia’s. This is without mentioning the potential for a rebound in the TFR, annexation of further territories (like Austria, for example), increased life expectancy, decreased emigration, etc.

    Russia meanwhile, was growing at a very rapid rate, but only about 70% of its population was actually Orthodox Russians, iirc. Germany, by contrast, was one of the most linguistically and ethnically homogenous countries in Europe. Russia’s huge economic growth was not successfully lifting the population out of poverty, with much of it being captured by mercantile minorities like Jews and Germans. The population was mostly illiterate; Germany was almost 100% literate. Germany was on the verge of displacing Britain in the realm of global trade on the eve of WW1; Russia was just kicked out of Manchuria by Japan and was failing to defeat an insurgency of nihilistic Jews.

    Believe me, I root for Russia, and I agree that Russia could have had a way better 20th century. However, I’d argue that Germany’s potential was very similarly stunted.

    • Replies: @AP, @Anon 2, @S
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  370. Denis says:
    @Philip Owen

    Yes, developments like that were precisely what I had in mind wrt Germany’s potential economic size and power.

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  371. annamaria says:
    @Mr. Hack

    Know your heroes and heroines: http://thesaker.is/guess-whats-neither-meat-nor-fish-but-ms-chalupa-and-john-schindler-by-scott/
    Chalupas and the US/UK ziocons:

    It was hailed by the likes of CNN as an “expression of democratic outrage with Russia’s aggression.” … this massive bot-attack was organized by a brand new organization based in the US called “Digital Maidan.”

    The organization was financed by the Khodorkovky-Soros “Open Russia Foundation” among others and ran by a woman named Andrea Chalupa. … Andrea Chalupa and her two siblings are actively involved with other sources of digital terrorism, disinformation and spamming, like TrolleyBust com, stopfake org, and informnapalm.

    Ms. Chalupa kept cooperating with the Khodorovky owned magazine “The Interpreter.” Now, it’s a part of RFE/RL run by the government-funded Broadcasting Board of Governors (BBG) whose director, Dr. Leon Aron also a director of Russian Studies at the American Enterprise Institute.

    According to the research of leaked John Podesta emails, “Arthur Brooks, president of the conservative nonprofit American Enterprise Institute, helped billionaire Clinton donor Lynn Forester de Rothschild secure the support of Republicans for Hillary Clinton. …

    With a caution that “if it’s Ukrainians – more than Russians – who are interfering with our country, we have a right to know” George Ellison recently published a comprehensive research on the Chalupas and Dmitri Alperovitch, titled “Why Crowdstrike’s Russian Hacking Story Fell Apart – Say Hello to Fancy Bear.”

    Mazel Tov! Mr. Hack.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
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  372. Denis says:
    @iffen

    Yeah, that’s probably right.

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  373. Denis says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Just to match Russia’s current, Communism-halved, population, it would need to add many tens of millions of immigrants. Which is ludicrously unrealistic

    Let’s wait and see what Angela Merkel has to say about that!

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  374. Dmitry says:
    @iffen

    No, they want to impose the same immigration policy that they support in America, in Israel.

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  375. Mr. Hack says:
    @annamaria

    Who’s “projecting” and who obviously doesn’t know how to put togethera cogent sentence that reflects your ideas? You wrote:

    Who needs Russians when you have your Chalupas & Kolomojsky & Vindmans laboring hand-in-hand with the whole flowerbed of ziocons such as the Kagans?

    Unfortunately, I got involved in this thread by commending AP for a nice job in shutting you up. He wrote:

    BTW, Russia has had 3 or 4 Jewish Prime Ministers. Putin’s business partner in St. Petersburg, Nikolai Shamalov, is Jewish. Putin’s daughter married Shamalov’s son.

    But in reality, Russia is full of of Jews represented in all walks of life, similarly to Ukraine, and you don’t make your foolish crackpot statements about this fact. Your god-man Putler has met with Netenyahu at least 60 times over the last few years, they seem to be symbiotic twins. Why don’t you make anything out of this, instead of always harping about Ukraine and its Jews?

    • Replies: @annamaria
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  376. AP says:
    @Denis

    Germany was on the verge of displacing Britain in the realm of global trade on the eve of WW1; Russia was just kicked out of Manchuria by Japan and was failing to defeat an insurgency of nihilistic Jews.

    Japan defeat was a bit of a fluke IIRC and Russia by 1914 was much improved from 1905.

    • Replies: @Denis, @Mr. XYZ
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  377. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    1. Germanize tens of millions of Slavs: 200M*25%, or whatever the Generalplan Ost ratio was supposed to be = eventually 50M –> 130M Germans.

    Yep–though even this might not be that easy to achieve within a short time-frame since people often aren’t willing to give up their cultures and languages.

    2. Make sure NatSoc mores stick, maintaining TFR at 3 children per woman and maintaining 1960s US like pop growth rates indefinitely.

    German fertility was at 2.3-2.4 in 1939, no?

    3. 200M-250M Germans by 2000. That’s =~ the number of White Americans today, so would indeed qualify as global economic superpower.

    Just how many of those Germans are going to live in Eastern Europe (including the European part of the USSR) right now in this scenario?

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
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  378. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    How, exactly? Germany has “reduced much of eastern Europe to economic vassalage” of a sort today, that’s doesn’t translate to political control.

    If the EU will eventually become a political union as well as an economic union, then things might eventually be different in regards to this. That said, though, I suspect that this is not going to happen anytime soon due to there probably being too much opposition to this idea among other Europeans.

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  379. Anon 2 says:
    @Denis

    By 1914 Germany has managed to antagonize all of its neighbors,
    and developed a very bad reputation especially in Poland and Bohemia
    due to its 1200 year Drang Nach Osten. The only way Germany could
    expand significantly eastward in 1914 would have been by first killing
    35 million Polonians, incl. 3 million Jews. You have no comprehension
    how hated the Germans were in Poland in 1914 due to the Partitions
    of Poland, Bismarck’s Kulturkampf, and the German tendency to use
    extreme violence, amply demonstrated over the last 1200 years. In many
    ways Germans are still hated and distrusted in Europe. You can’t treat
    people like garbage for centuries without the people finally responding
    in kind.

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  380. Anon 2 says:
    @Denis

    Once Germany becomes a civilized country, then we can talk. But Germany
    practiced slavery as recently as in 1945. Civilized countries don’t do that,
    demonstrating that Germany has a long way to go before it proves to the world
    that it deserves to join the community of civilized nations. By definition,
    violence and civilization are opposites. Hence the United States is barely
    civilized because of its high level of violence, both internal and external
    (e.g., invasion of Iraq).

    • Replies: @Counterinsurgency
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  381. @Denis

    Japan today is handicapped by being under total American domination, even Germany has a freer had then them

    • Replies: @S
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  382. @Mr. XYZ

    That’s all true. I’m indeed having to be generous to make Denis’ scenario work.

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  383. @Skeptikal

    I often use words and concepts with technical or even stipulative definitions, and clarify them for the general reader in the footnotes. If you have questions on what meaning I’m assigning to specific words this time, quite often the footnotes will answer those questions.

    Counterinsurgency

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  384. @Anon 2

    That’s a “true Scottsman” argument [1]. Besides, by the “violence precludes civilization” definition, there aren’t any civilized countries.

    Counterinsurgency

    1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_true_Scotsman

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  385. S says:
    @Korenchkin

    Well, one thing is certain, Japan and Germany, having each been under US military occupation for almost 75 years now, are both very much satellite states of the United States.

    So close is the relationship (special relationship?) between the US and Japan that Japan is sometimes even referred to as ‘the Britain of the Far East’ in regards to its relationship with the US.

    Japan to Become ‘Britain of the Far East’

    With possible flashpoints ranging from the Middle East to Northeast Asia, the US global military transformation – under fire from many quarters – is transforming Japan itself into a reliable and unswerving “Britain of the Far East”.

    Britain is the United States’ closest ally in the Western Hemisphere, and the US wants Japan to become the Asian equivalent of the United Kingdom in the Eastern Hemisphere. The US is currently redeploying and transforming its military to expand its military operations in the so-called “arc of instability” stretching from Northeast Asia to the Middle East by securing and strengthening the forward deployment of US forces abroad.

    This new realignment will project US forces further, faster and with greater striking power when they reach their destination. Many analysts have pointed out Japan is becoming a linchpin, a key security outpost, in the United States’ defense posture in the Asia-Pacific region.

    https://www.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/154/25727.html

    https://thediplomat.com/2011/01/japan-britain-of-the-far-east/

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  386. Mitleser says:
    @German_reader

    Even in 1914 was a comparatively small country in the middle of Europe, totally dependent on exports to other states (most of them increasingly antagonistic) and therefore potentially very vulnerable to protectionism. Nothing like the huge domestic market of the US, not many natural resources either.

    Population of the USA in 1913 was 97,3 million people, the combined populations of the German Empire and Austria-Hungary were 119 million people.
    Austria was also among the Top 3 oil producers at that time.

    Germany did certainly have the potential to be a global economic superpower.

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  387. Denis says:
    @AP

    It was and they were, but it still highlights the balance of power compared to Germany, which was capable of easily defeating any one of its neighbours.

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  388. Denis says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Only chance for Germany to become a global economic superpower in 20th century:

    1. Germanize tens of millions of Slavs: 200M*25%, or whatever the Generalplan Ost ratio was supposed to be = eventually 50M –> 130M Germans.
    2. Make sure NatSoc mores stick, maintaining TFR at 3 children per woman and maintaining 1960s US like pop growth rates indefinitely.
    3. 200M-250M Germans by 2000. That’s =~ the number of White Americans today, so would indeed qualify as global economic superpower.

    Being a superpower for a certain period of time does not necessitate being greater than Russia in every dimension. Consider China, which had a greater population than Russia and a larger economy as well. China was clearly not a great power at all by the late 19th/early 20th century.

    Similarly, for Germany to attain dominance, they would not have had to surpass their opponents in every metric.

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  389. S says:
    @Denis

    Since America is currently dominant in Europe, Eastern Europe’s subordinate status translates into subordination to America, but if America had never entered the picture as a result of the wars, then it doesn’t take a huge leap to see those same eastern states being subordinate to Germany instead.

    Yes, but due to the ‘special relationship’ of the US and UK in place since about 1900, a relationship only just short of an outright political union, the United States was virtually certain to enter both world wars one way or the other once the UK got involved militarily in Europe.

    And whether Germany wanted that world war in either instance or not with the US/UK didn’t particularly matter, as the war with Germany, the would be center of power upon continental Europe, would of been forced upon them if need be, one way or the other. [This is exactly the same thing they are attempting to do to Russia now as they did to Germany then.]

    And how can a country or countrys force another to go to war?

    When they (ie the US/UK in 1901) have three times the wealth and economic resources of the combined French, Russian, and German Empire’s as WT Stead, a close associate of Cecil Rhodes of British Africa fame, outlined on pg 10, 11, and 12, of his 1901 book The Americanization of the World linked below, well, you can do a lot of things.

    Something like those figures probably held true through the start of WWII, and are now probably even still considerable no doubt in relation to other countries.

    The subtitles of the first chapter those economic figures appeared in tell their own story regarding the US/UK and it’s self declared world mission, ie ‘the decree of destiny’, ‘the supreme power’, and ‘world conquerors’.

    [The number 3 comment below by Grimoire regarding the ‘special relationship’ article linked to below at Majority Rights’ is of interest should a person have the time.]

    https://majorityrights.com/weblog/comments/a_special_relationship

    https://archive.org/details/americanizationo01stea/page/10

    • Replies: @Denis
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  390. songbird says:

    I don’t think Germany really had to Germanize Slavs. If they had really had a good breeder program going, they could have exported their surplus population to their African colonies, or perhaps even to other parts of the world to gain influence. They didn’t need battleships, just a lot of babies.

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  391. Denis says:
    @S

    Perhaps American intervention was inevitable, but I was predicating my arguments on Germany avoiding the wars.

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  392. Mr. XYZ says:
    @AP

    Japan defeat was a bit of a fluke IIRC and Russia by 1914 was much improved from 1905.

    Probably still not strong enough to defeat Germany in a one-on-one fight, though.

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  393. annamaria says:
    @Mr. Hack

    “Russia is full of Jews represented in all walks of life…”

    — There are even more Jews in Israel (6.5 mln) than in Russia (0.6 mln). But only Ukraine (0.2 mln Jews) holds a distinction of being ruled by Jews in collaboration with Banderites.

    “Ukraine’s Jews welcome election of Zelensky:” https://www.ft.com/content/dea333d8-6689-11e9-9adc-98bf1d35a056

    Ukraine will become the only country outside of Israel to have Jewish heads of state and government. “This is wonderful . . . I’m proud,” said Alevtina, a 25-year old outside Brodsky Synagogue in downtown Kiev…. Volodymyr Groysman, also Jewish, has served as the Prime Minister [of Ukraine] since 2016.

    Mazel Tov! Mr. Hack. You country has been liberated from the Russian language, Russian population, and Russian traditions. Enjoy the newly found freedom brought to you by Mrs. Nuland-Kagan & Mr. Brennan, and financed by the State Dept, Soros, Khodorkovsky, and other titans of commerce such as the pure Ukrainian heroes Kolomojsky and Pinchuk. And don’t forget the labors of Chalupas (banderites) and Dm. Alpeorovitch (zionist), both involved with the Atlantic Council (of mega-liars) and Integrity Initiative (of disinformation).
    https://www.globalresearch.ca/the-insiduous-role-of-the-atlantic-council-securing-the-21st-century-for-nato/18945
    https://www.mintpressnews.com/the-integrity-initiative-and-the-uks-scandalous-information-war/253014/

    That scandal involved the unmasking of “more than 400 American journalists who…in the past twenty-five years have secretly carried out assignments for the Central Intelligence Agency” …

    The exposing of the Integrity Initiative has just scratched the surface of what appears to be a much more sophisticated, insidious, and extremely online version of Operation Mockingbird.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
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  394. Mr. Hack says:
    @annamaria

    You still haven’t addressed how it is that there are so many Jews in Russia in high positions? You should learn from your wise leader Putin:

    Russian President Vladimir Putin praised Israeli responses to terrorism, and used Israel’s culture to illustrate steadfastness in the face of adversity during an event on October 28, 2016, hosted by the Valdai International Discussion Club. The Russian leader urged his listeners to “learn from Israel,” stating that Israelis “never let go” and “fight until the end… that is why [they] exist at all.”

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  395. Alfred says:Next New Comment

    the Irish have an even more extreme and unique anti-record

    My mother was Irish Catholic. Born 1917. She had 5 sisters and one brother. Only two out of six stayed in Ireland. Most girls dispersed – Egypt, UK, USA and South Africa. There are around (I am not in touch with my cousins) 20 grandchildren worldwide of whom only 1/4 are in Ireland. I suspect that the Irish outside (when adjusted for mixing with non-Irish) is 10 times the number in Ireland.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. This Commenter
  396. Ron Chapman says: • Website

    G’day Pilgrims,
    Arguably humanity on this planet is on the cusp of a new era in which human labour will cease to be essential to maintain society in material abundance because AI, robots and technology will replace the need for much human physical and mental work.

    Once AI and robotics dominate industrial, construction, transport, agricultural, health, legal, accounting and other industries the labour force required for servicing, maintenance and creation of improved robotic and technological designs etc will NOT require more than a fraction of the human manpower currently required to perform the work that will be done by AI and robotics in the future.

    Accordingly, what we need to do is start focussing upon what these developments really mean for life as we know it. The first and glaringly obvious question arising from the coming technological dominance of the production and servicing of human needs IS: ‘who will control the output of AI and robotics and who will reap the benefits from that output’? Currently our world is a growing unemployment and underemployment, low wage, high personal income taxation oriented welfare state dystopia because a handfull of incredibly rich individuals control the bulk of transnational corporations AND those individuals pay very little tax while accumulating and KEEPING the bulk of the benefits of that corporate production and associated servicing activities. See eg:
    How Billionaires Become Billionaires – Link http://abundanthope.net/pages/Political_Information_43/How-Billionaires-Become-Billionaires.shtml
    And:
    How Interlinked Corporations Rule The World. – Link http://abundanthope.net/pages/Political_Information_43/How-Interlinked-Corporations-Rule-The-World.shtml
    he corporate stranglehold on food and agriculture. – Link http://abundanthope.net/pages/Health_and_Nutrition_37/The-corporate-stranglehold-on-food-and-agriculture.shtml
    And:
    Rise of the Transnational Corporations – http://abundanthope.net/pages/Political_Information_43/Rise-of-the-Transnational-Corporations.shtml

    And:
    The Permanent Unemployment & Underemployment Economy – http://abundanthope.net/pages/Political_Information_43/The-Permanent-Unemployment – Underemployment-Economy.shtml

    BLIND FREDDY can see that this situation is NOT sustainable. The question is: ‘What, if anything, is the bulk of humanity going to do about it’?

    Here’s a hint Pilgrims. IF the global population allows the current rapacious and totally dysfunctional corporatist domination and control of our world (typified by Amazon and Google et al) and fails to develop the mental muscle and guts to refuse to allow Fascists (ie banksters, corporatists and their puppet politicians and so-called Welfare governments) to exploit, impoverish and immiserate the bulk of the global population, human society on this planet will disappear up its own fundamental orifice. The choice is yours. Pretending that ALL that is required is retraining of workers or provision of some form of universal basic income to overcome the problem is ridiculous. See eg:
    Universal Basic Income Is Easier Than It Looks – http://abundanthope.net/pages/Political_Information_43/Universal-Basic-Income-Is-Easier-Than-It-Looks.shtml
    And:
    Endless Government Free Money – http://abundanthope.net/pages/Political_Information_43/Endless-Government-Free-Money.shtml
    And:
    Can We Do Without Money ? – http://abundanthope.net/pages/Political_Information_43/Can-We-Do-Without-Money.shtml

    Our world is currently drowning in debt owed to anonymous banksters who also own or control the corporation that own (and will own future iterations of) the AI and technology we will increasingly depend on. Moreover, those Talmudic owners have indicated that they will only need some 500 million human ‘cattle’ for their amusement etc, the rest being surplus to requirements once they institute their New World Order, One World Government. Sooo, it is unlikely that postulating ANY greater future population for this planet will come to fruition unless the global population CHANGES its attitude to usurious banking, AND corporate personhood; AND limited liability companies; AND ownership and control of the corporations that purport to own the AI and technology needed to sustain everyone. See eg:
    Citizens United v. FEC: Corporate Personhood Must be Eliminated if Humanity is to Survive. – http://abundanthope.net/pages/Ron_71/Citizens-United-v-FEC-Corporate-Personhood-Must-GO-if-Humanity-is-to-Survive.shtml
    And:
    The USA Isn’t a Country, It’s a Corporation! – http://abundanthope.net/pages/True_US_History_108/The-USA-Isn-t-a-Country-It-s-a-Corporation.shtml
    And:
    The Matrix, the Strawman and WHO You Are – http://abundanthope.net/pages/Ron_71/The_Matrix_the_Strawman_and_WHO_You_Are_3030.shtml

    Proper use of AI and robotics etc should enable ALL of humanity to begin transitioning into a new age free of the drudgery of endless physical work that has hitherto been needed to survive. That result will mean that humans will become free to think and develop their innate creativity instead of scrabbling for a living as free range serfs (wage slaves) in the Fascist (Talmudic) capitalist milieu we currently inhabit. However, that prosperous and abundant future for all can only be achieved if we shuck off the mind controlled illusion that a tiny cabal of banksters and corporatists are entitled to OWN and control the corporations and hence the technologies and profits of the machines that create abundance for all. Today it is estimated that some 700 individuals own and/or control the mega trans-national corporations that control global production of goods and services. Those individuals already HAVE most of this worlds’ wealth and if they are allowed to continue to control the production and KEEP the totally inadequately taxed profits of most global mega corporations, human life on this planet is doomed.

    The solution is obvious. Nations and communities must take back ownership OR control of the corporations that use AI and robotics etc to produce essential societal needs in the future in order to redistribute the resultant productivity and abundance. IF nations and communities ensure that the profits of ALL corporations are properly taxed so that NO ONE is able to appropriate, hoard and use for private purposes the personally unearned increments accruing from the use of AI, robotics and technologies generally, humanity will enter a golden age. But if not, not.

    Peace and Blessings,
    Ron




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Congress Still Covering for the Fed’s Bailouts
Since Feeding the Homeless Is Illegal, Activists Carry AR-15s to Give Out Food, Supplies
Democrats Play Havoc with History, cite King Louis XVI in effort to impeach Trump
West Seeks Control Over Asian Rivers
Red Tide Rising
Strikes Over Pension Reform Cripple France as Leaders Say ‘let them eat cake’
"Floodgates Are Open" - German Banks Start Charging Retail Savers
Those Who Do Not Believe QANON Will be Mighty Surprised
"Undeniable Evidence": Explosive Classified Docs Reveal Afghan War Mass Deception
The Comey FBI's 17 Worst Failures, Inaccuracies, & Omissions Flagged In The FISA Report:
Attorney General William Barr: IG Report ‘Makes Clear That the FBI Launched an Intrusive Investigation’
Trump: Details Revealed in IG Report Are 'An Embarrassment to Our Country'