categoryMenu_new
 
  Home
  EXTRAORDINARY AH Teaching from Spiritual Hierarchy
  AbundantHope
  NEW READERS! Read Here First
  Supporting AH
  Leadership of AbundantHope
  Announcements
  Regional AH Sites
  Other Sites with AH material
  Contact Us
  Becoming A Messiah
  OUR PUBLIC FORUM IS OPEN TOO ALL
  Mission Ideas
  System Busting
  Cleric Letter/English
  Translations of Cleric Letter
  AH Member Writings
  Candace
  Ron
  Rosie
  Jess
  Brian's Poetry
  James
  Giuseppe
  Esteban
  Telepathic Messages
  Candace
  Jess Anthony
  Vince
  Leonette
  John
  Adam
  Bela
  Joyce
  Hazel
  Kibo
  Peter
  Rosie
  Johan
  Lucia
  Lucia G
  Rubens
  Shellee-Kim
  Ben
  Dorothea
  Solon
  Others
  Targeted Messages
  Hano
  Light Flower
  Changing The Face Of Religion
  - Phoenix Journals - PDF in German
  Candace on Religion
  Other Spiritual Pieces
  Spiritual Nuggets by the Masters
  Phoenix Journals
  Phoenix Journals - PDF
  Telepathic Messages PDF books
  Selections from the Urantia Book
  Illustrations For The Urantia Book
  CMGSN Pieces
  THE WAVE
  Environment/Science
  David Crayford and the ITC
  Health and Nutrition
  Podcasts, Radio Shows, Video by AH
 
  Political Information
  True US History
  Human/Animal Rights
  The Miracle That Is Me
  Education
  Resources
  911 Material
  Books - eBooks
  government email/phone #'s
  Self Reliance
  Video
  Websites
  Alternative News Sources
  Art and Music
  Foreign Sites
  Health and Healing
  Human/Animal Rights
  Scientific
  Spiritual
  Vegan Recipes
  Translated Material
  Dutch
  Gekanaliseerde berichten Jess
  Gekanaliseerde berichten Candace
  Gekanaliseerde berichten Anderen
  Artikelen/berichten
  French
  Canal Jess
  Par Candace
  Other Channels
  Articles
  German
  Telepathische Nachrichten (Candace)
  Telepathische Nachrichten (Jess)
  Telepathische Nachrichten (div.)
  AH Mitgliederbeiträge (Candace)
  AH Mitgliederbeiträge (Jess)
  Spirituelle Schätze
  Italian
  Translations - Candace
  Translations - Jess
  Translations - Others
  Portuguese
  by Candace
  By Jess
  By Others
  Spanish
  Anfitriones Divinos
  Bitácoras Fénix
  Creadores-de-Alas (WingMakers/Lyricus)
  Escritos de Candace
  Escritos de Otros
  Monjoronsón
  Telemensajes de Candace
  Telemensajes de Jess Anthony
  Telemensajes de Otros
  Chinese
  By Candace
  By Jess
  By Others
  Korean Translations
  Hungarian Translations
  Swedish Translations

Search
[an error occurred while processing this directive]
Political Information Last Updated: Feb 14, 2020 - 6:11:28 AM


It’s Time to Reclaim Syria’s Road to Recovery
By Pepe Escobar
Feb 13, 2020 - 11:22:16 PM

Email this article
 Printer friendly page Share/Bookmark

https://www.asiatimes.com/2020/02/article/its-time-to-reclaim-syrias-road-to-recovery/

February 13th 2020


It’s time to reclaim Syria’s road to recoverySyria's main transport artery, the M5 highway, links Damascus with Aleppo. Image: iStock

Erdogan de facto supports al-Qaeda remnants while facing either humiliating retreat from or total war against Syria

  • facebook
  • twitter
  • linkedin
  • email
  • whatsApp

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, neo-Ottoman extraordinaire, is not exactly inclined to commit seppuku, the Japanese act of ritual suicide.

But if not through the perspective of neo-Ottomanism, how to explain the fact he is de facto supporting al-Qaeda remnants in Syria while facing two unsavory options - a humiliating retreat from or total war against the Syrian Arab Army?

Everything about the slowly evolving, messy chessboard in Idlib hinges on highways: the imperative for the government in Damascus to control both the M5 highway between Damascus and Aleppo and the M4 highway between Latakia and Aleppo. Fully reclaiming these two crucial axes will finally turbo-charge the ailing Syrian economy.

Very few players nowadays remember the all-important Sochi memorandum of understanding signed between Russia and Turkey in September 2018.

The Western spin was always about whether Damascus would comply. Nonsense. In the memorandum, Ankara guaranteed protection of civilian traffic on both highways. It's Ankara that is not complying, not only in terms of ensuring that "radical terrorist groups" are out of the demilitarized zone, but especially on point number 8: "In the interests of ensuring free movement of local residents and goods, as well as restoring trade and economic ties, transit traffic along the routes M4 (Aleppo-Latakia) and M5 (Aleppo-Hama) will be restored before the end of 2018."

Vast stretches of Idlib are in fact under the yoke of Hayat Tahrir al Shams (HTS), shorthand for al-Qaeda in Syria. Or "moderate rebels," as they are known inside the Beltway - even though the United States government itself brands it as a terror organization.

For all practical purposes, the Erdogan system is supporting and weaponizing HTS in Idlib. When the SAA reacts against HTS's attacks, Erdogan goes ballistic and threatens war.

The West uncritically buys Ankara propaganda. How dare the "Assad regime" take back the M5, which "had been under rebel control since 2012"? Erdogan is lauded for warning "Iran and Russia to end the support for the Assad regime." NATO invariably condemns "attacks on Turkish troops."

The official Ankara explanation for the Turkish presence in Idlib hinges on bringing reinforcements to "observation posts." Nonsense. These posts are not meant to go away. On top of it, Ankara demands that the SAA should retreat to the positions it held months ago - away from Idlib.

There's no way Damascus will "comply" because these Turkish troops are a de facto occupation body-protecting "moderate rebels" fighting for "democracy" who were decisively excluded by Moscow - and even Ankara - from the Sochi memorandum. One can't make this stuff up.

Got airpower, will travel

Now let's look at the facts on the ground - and in the skies. Moscow and Damascus control the airspace over Idlib. Su-34 jets patrol all of northwest Syrian territory. Moscow has warships - crammed with cruise missiles - deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The whole SAA offensive for these past few months to liberate national territory has been a graphic demonstration of top Russian intel - planning, execution, logistics.

What's being set up is a classic cauldron - a Southwest Asia replica of the cauldron in Donbass in 2014 that destroyed Kiev's army. The SAA is encircling the Turks from the north, east and south. There will be only one way out for the Turks: the border crossing at Bab al-Hawa. Back to Turkey.

Facing certified disaster, no wonder Erdogan had to talk "de-escalation" with Putin on Tuesday. The red lines, from Moscow's side, are immutable: the highways will be liberated (according to the Sochi agreement). The neo-Ottoman sultan can't afford a war with Russia. So, yes: he's bluffing.

But why is he bluffing? There are three main possibilities. 1) Washington is forcing him to, pledging full support to "our NATO ally."  2) The Turkish Armed Forces cannot afford to lose face. 3) The "moderate rebels" don't give a damn about Ankara.

Option 1 seems the most plausible - even as Erdogan is being actually forced to directly confront a Moscow with which he has signed extremely important economic/energy contracts. Erdogan may not be a General Zhukov, but he knows that a bunch of jihadis and only 6,000 demoralized Turkish soldiers stand no chance against the SAA and Russian airpower.

It's enlightening to compare the current Turkish predicament with the Turk/Free Syrian Army (FSA) proxy gang alliance when they were fighting the Kurds in Afrin.

Ankara then had control of the skies and enormous artillery advantage - from their side of the border. Now Syria/Russia rules the skies and Turkish artillery simply cannot get into Idlib. Not to mention that supply lines are dreadful.

Neo-Ottomanism, revisited

So what is Erdogan up to? What's happening is Erdogan's Muslim Brotherhood network is now managing Idlib on the ground - a fascinating repositioning gambit able to ensure that Erdogan remains a strongman with whom Bashar al-Assad will have to talk business when the right time comes.

Erdogan's partial endgame will be to "sell" to Assad that ultimately he was responsible for getting rid of the HTS/FSA jihadi nebulae. Meanwhile, circus prevails - or, rather, a lousy opera, with Erdogan once again relishing playing the bad guy. He knows Damascus has all but won a vicious nine-year proxy war - and is reclaiming all of its sovereign territory. There's no turning back.

And that brings us to the complex dynamics of the Turkish-Iranian puzzle. One should always remember that both are members of the  Astana peace process, alongside Russia. On Syria, Tehran supported Damascus from the start while Ankara bet on - and weaponized - the "democratic freedom fighter" jihadi nebulae.

From the 16th century to the 19th, Shi'ite Iran and the Sunni Ottoman empire were engaged in non-stop mutual containment. And under the banner of Islam, Turkey de facto ruled over the Arab world.

Jump cut, in the 21st century, to Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who codified neo-Ottomanism. Davutoglu came up with the idea that eastern Anatolia did not end with the borders with Armenia and Iran but extended to the western coast of the Caspian Sea. And he also came up with the idea that eastern Anatolia did not end at the borders with Iraq and Syria - but extended all the way to Mosul.

Essentially, Davutoglu argued that the Middle East had to be Turkey's backyard. And Syria would be the golden gate through which Turkey would "recover" the Middle East.

All these elaborate plans now lie in dust. The Big Picture, of course, remains: the US determined by all means necessary to prevent Eurasian unity, and the Russia-China strategic partnership from having access to maritime routes, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean through Syria via Iran.

The micro-picture is way more prosaic. It comes down to Erdogan making sure his occupying troops do not get routed by Assad's army. How the mighty (neo-Ottoman) have fallen.

Sign up for the Daily Report

[Colour fonts and bolding added.].

 




All writings by members of AbundantHope are copyrighted by
©2005-2020 AbundantHope - All rights reserved

Detailed explanation of AbundantHope's Copyrights are found here


Top of Page

Political Information
Latest Headlines
Climate crimes must be brought to justice
U.S. Intelligence Is Intervening In The 2020 Election
Why Governments Hate Secession
The Nobel Peace Prize Is A Sick Joke
Viral Video Exposes Israeli Practice of Holding and Desecrating Palestinian Bodies
British Politicians Covered Up Child Sex Abuse for Decades’
Coronavirus covert operation
Senate Democrats Block Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act
Turkey’s War on Syria: Erdogan Sponsored Terrorists Cut Drinking Water off Al-Hasakah, Two Million People Affected, an Explicit War Crime
Revenge-Fueled Democrats Watch In Rage As Trump Judges Begin Laying Waste To Leftist America
Turkey: Why is the ‘Sick Man of Europe’ itching in Syria ?
In Bali Young People Lead The Fight As A Plastic Plague Threatens Paradise
The British Kangaroo Court Proceedings Against Julian Assange
Assange Extradition Hearing is Damocles Sword Over Journalists’ Heads. But UK mainstream media participate in his crucifixion
Globalization and Our Precarious Medical Supply Chains
Credibility of European Court of Human Rights lies in ruins after judges’ links to Soros revealed
The British Government’s Covert Propaganda Campaign in Syria
Dwyane Wade’s 12-Year-Old Transgender Child and the Media Tour “Promoting” Her
While Putin Defends Russia Israel Helps Create a Terminator World
Pope Francis The Taxman